[quote]Varqanir wrote:
[quote]Gambit_Lost wrote:
I guess I’m of the opinion that nukes would come quick if the US pulled out. Certainly they have the technical capacity. They have reactors (as we all know all too well now). I don’t know about weapons grade, but I’ve a feeling an agreement would be a part of any US withdrawal.
The relationship between China and Japan is such that a serious deterrent is needed. Right now, that deterrent is the US (see the senkaku islands “events”)…if no US… 'course, that’s why I think there will always be a US presence in Japan…at least in my lifetime. [/quote]
Japan already possesses anywhere from fifty to seventy tons of weapons-grade plutonium, within its territory and in France and Britain. The Rokkasho plutonium reprocessing plant has an annual production capacity of nine tons per year. If Japan wanted, they could easily use this stockpile in a nuclear weapons program. Their missile guidance and propulsion technology is superior to anything possessed by the Koreas, China or Russia, and equivalent to British, French or Israeli technology. It would be no trouble at all to retrofit their conventional arsenal to carry a nuclear payload. As I said, all it would take is the will to do it.
China is big and scary, but I wonder about the technological disparity between it and Japan. In 1894 this disparity was quite large, which is why Japan mopped the floor with China during the Sino-Japanese war. Today, that gap has closed some, but whereas China’s superiority is primarily numerical, Japan’s is technological, and this is what wins battles. The Chinese only have about 240 nuclear weapons, and a lot more formidable enemies than Japan has. A nuclear-armed Japan with a beefed-up Navy and air defense force would make even China think twice before rattling its saber too loudly. [/quote]
Yeah, which is why I think it’s time for the jieitai to move beyond a self-defense force. Thanks for the info on the weapons grade stuff.
[quote]Cortes wrote:
I’m not so sure about the nukes. The anti-bomb propaganda here runs strong and very, very deep. And the OMGZ nuclear weapons are bad and we weren’t even doing anything wrong in WWII just standing around holding hands singing We Are the World when the US dropped those EVIL atomic bombs on us and we will NEVER EVER support any kind of nuclear bomb of ANY kind ANYWHERE (easy to say with the most powerful military in the history of the world camped in your yard). There is an indoctrination machine here, that starts with the schools trips that inevitably take their elementary school classes to one of the “Peace” museums in Hiroshima or Nagasaki, whose tendrils have penetrated every subsection of society so deep that you cannot even have a rational conversation about the bomb (try suggesting it may be saved lives overall to ANYONE here and see what happens).
Sorry for the stream of consciousness rant, but I have real trouble imagining the Japanese achieving a smooth transition into a nuclear armed nation. Even though I think it is EXACTLY what this country needs.
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I understand what you are saying about the propaganda. But I do think that “no US = nuclear Japan”… 'course, what you are describing is one of the reasons I don’t think that the US will ever pull out of Japan.
I honestly don’t know enough about the Japanese government and military to know if that sort of propaganda has permeated the military and ruling-class. I guess I had assumed not, but I really don’t know. Maybe you guys can let me know what you think.
After “the” quake, I had some interesting conversations about nuclear power in the country…lots of sucking-air-through-teeth on that subject.
Oh…and you are a much braver man than I if you tried to argue that the nukes saved lives while actually physically being in Kansai…lol