Fair enough, it’s just rare to see someone post information on a topic without at least subtly taking a position. Based on your comment about the Israelis and anti-terrorist training, that’s what I thought you were doing. I apologize. But as someone who I believe is ex-infantry, I’d be curious to hear what your view of the situation is.
I can see where you would get that. I like to hear how a debate progresses sometimes before I take a stand. That doesn?t mean that I am likely to change my view, but I like to hear what others have to say. In my opinion Israel can hold its own and has for a long time. This time they are fighting on two fronts. If anyone can succeed against this kind of enemy it would be Israel. Hezbollah standing alone is one thing, but add the support of Iran and others and they become much more of a threat. If Israel accepts anything less than the disarming of Hezbollah it will be a terrible mistake. They do not have the resources to draw this out. If I were in Israel?s place, I would not stop or back down. Collateral damage may be a necessary evil in this case. Israel will need to make the Lebanese unwilling to provide resources to Hezbollah and make them a mutual enemy. I believe the second to be more important taking into consideration the religious difference. One thing that comes to mind about weapons and tactics: Israel was one of the first to use drone aircraft effectively in combat. This alone allowed them to take out Syrian anti-aircraft batteries in prior wars. [/quote]
OK, but you think coercive bombing works, that Israel can use airpower to make Lebanon abandon Hezbollah? 50 odd years of airpower shows that’s unlikely (Blitz, bombing of Germany, Japan, Vietnam - though more of a case to be made, and maybe most importantly, Kosovo). If they go in in a serious and sustained way on the ground, they get 1982 all over again, quite likely worse.
[quote]vroom wrote:
BH6 wrote:
ODogg is right. Hezbollah is fighting a textbook guerilla fight, they win as long as they don’t lose. Every day they continue to launch rockets into Isreal is victory.
Damn, you guys are as good as the Bush administration at spinning things. Hezbollah is basically toothless, causing a few civilian deaths per day, and they are somehow winning.
Hezbollah is also fielding some pretty advanced anti-tank missles that are allowing them to fight the Isreali army. They are using the Sagger AT-3A, the Metis-M and the Kornet missles, all with thermal night sights.
There is also some evidence of advanced electronic countermeasure systems being deployed by Hezbollah. Apparently the Isreali ship that was hit with the silkworm missle was unable to employ its defense systems due to jamming.
According to Israel they didn’t expect such an attack and weren’t even ready to defend against the possibility. It’s called surprise. It happens sometimes.
This war is teaching us quite a bit about the Iranian capabilities and how they would fight the United States if they had to.
The Isrealis are pretty suprised by the sophistication of the Hezbollah communications, weapons, and countermeasures. They are in quite a bit of dilemma, do they continue the fight and face more international criticism or do they pull out and appear to be defeated.
They decide to get serious about fighting or they wait for the UN to step in and offer an acceptable out. All they want is the security represented by a de-toothed Hezbollah.
If a cheaper way, in human lives, becomes available, they take it.[/quote]
You clearly have no idea what you’re talking about. Take a look at Israeli casualties, and bear in mind the power disparity here: a militia that numbers in the low thousands against maybe the best military in the world. Then tell me Israel’s winning.
[quote]vroom wrote:
BH6 wrote:
ODogg is right. Hezbollah is fighting a textbook guerilla fight, they win as long as they don’t lose. Every day they continue to launch rockets into Isreal is victory.
Damn, you guys are as good as the Bush administration at spinning things. Hezbollah is basically toothless, causing a few civilian deaths per day, and they are somehow winning.
Hezbollah is also fielding some pretty advanced anti-tank missles that are allowing them to fight the Isreali army. They are using the Sagger AT-3A, the Metis-M and the Kornet missles, all with thermal night sights.
There is also some evidence of advanced electronic countermeasure systems being deployed by Hezbollah. Apparently the Isreali ship that was hit with the silkworm missle was unable to employ its defense systems due to jamming.
According to Israel they didn’t expect such an attack and weren’t even ready to defend against the possibility. It’s called surprise. It happens sometimes.
This war is teaching us quite a bit about the Iranian capabilities and how they would fight the United States if they had to.
The Isrealis are pretty suprised by the sophistication of the Hezbollah communications, weapons, and countermeasures. They are in quite a bit of dilemma, do they continue the fight and face more international criticism or do they pull out and appear to be defeated.
They decide to get serious about fighting or they wait for the UN to step in and offer an acceptable out. All they want is the security represented by a de-toothed Hezbollah.
If a cheaper way, in human lives, becomes available, they take it.[/quote]
Vroom, I usually agree with most things you write, but you are missing the larger picture of this war. This is 4th generation warfare (google “Bill Lind” for an explanation). Hezbollah isn’t a toothless group of rebels, it is something very unique. It is an organized Army set up around a religion rather than a government. They are winning the war right now, not on the ground (which doesn’t matter in the 4th Generation) but in the larger world public opinion.
If Hezbollah can convince the UN, and the world that Isreal is an opressive government bent on destroying Lebanon and then the rest of the Arab world, then they win. The fighting right now isn’t for ground, or control of a population of people, it is for political credibility.
Every rocket Hezbollah launches, no matter if it kills or not, is a victory. Hassahn Nazrallah is becoming the most popular leader in the Arab world. Hezbollah is stronger than Al Queda right now due mostly to the perception that they are standing up directly to the Isrealis.
The Isreali Army has the capability to defeat Hezbollah, but the Israeli government probablly doesn’t have the political capitol to pull it off. The world is going to demand the end of the fighting before Isreal can finish off Hezbollah. If that happens, Hezbollah wins.
Hezbollah has defeated 60 of one of the worlds most advanced tanks (the merkava). Many of the type that have been destroyed have been the older type I and II. The type III and IV have better reactive armor and redesigned turrets. That is nothing to sniff at. The Isreali’s and the US military have been set back quite a bit by the unexpected success of Hezbollah.
The Iranian naval exercise earlier in the year was a demonstration of some of the weapons that Hezbollah is employing. Isreali and the United States’ intelligence services will probably admit that they missed the advanced electronic warfare capabilities. The fact that Hezbollah used them means that there are Iranian advisors and technicians directly supporting Hezbollah.
Isreal has been considered one of the most advanced countries in electronic warfare. The fact that the Iranians have a system that defeated their considerable capabilities is very significant.
There is no spin here. Isreal is in a bit of sticky situation. They can win with ease, but the perception will continue that Hezbollah has pulled off a David to Isreal’s Goliath.
Most of what I have written here was taken from several different documents and analysis that I have read lately.
[quote]vroom wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
If you are not prepared to carpet bomb the area and turn it into a pock marked glass plate then you are asking to have your @$$ handed to you.
You guys really show your colors when you suggest Israel is having it’s ass handed to it.
You wish.
Look, all you are describing is the difficult realities of the situation. Cheering on Hezbollah because Israel is restraining itself just seems somewhat silly to me.[/quote]
In the Arab world Israel is perceived as weak because their response has been tempered.
I think Israel should just carpet bomb the entire area and let God sort them out.
FU for insinuating that I am cheering on Hezbollah. The reality is Hezbollah is not a bunch of scrubs running around in flip flop carrying Chinese AKs.
Israel should carpet bomb Iran, Syrian, and Lebanon.
Just because my opinion is that Israel needs to take off the gloves (and will until it does) does not mean I am cheering on Hezbollah.
[quote]vroom wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
If you are not prepared to carpet bomb the area and turn it into a pock marked glass plate then you are asking to have your @$$ handed to you.
You guys really show your colors when you suggest Israel is having it’s ass handed to it.
You wish.
Look, all you are describing is the difficult realities of the situation. Cheering on Hezbollah because Israel is restraining itself just seems somewhat silly to me.[/quote]
I’m not cheeleading dummy. I have trained with the Isrealis. I have the utmost respect for their professionlism as a military and I completely support everything their government is doing. This war is very significant from an operational standpoint. Pay attention to how it is conducted, you will see this type of warfare again. But you might ask, aren’t we seeing it right now in Iraq, young Captain? I would say to you perhaps, in a much less sophiscated way. I would bet you a paycheck that Muqtada al-Sadr is paying close attention to how Hezbollah fights the Isrealis.
[quote]GDollars37 wrote:
You clearly have no idea what you’re talking about. Take a look at Israeli casualties, and bear in mind the power disparity here: a militia that numbers in the low thousands against maybe the best military in the world. Then tell me Israel’s winning.[/quote]
So, what is your interpretation of the US in Iraq then?
Anyhow, saying they are not getting their asses kicked is a far cry from saying they are “winning”. Maybe it’s somewhere in between?
It’s not traditional warfare. People are expecting traditional warfare results and claiming failure when that is not what is delivered.
[quote]BH6 wrote:
If Hezbollah can convince the UN, and the world that Isreal is an opressive government bent on destroying Lebanon and then the rest of the Arab world, then they win. The fighting right now isn’t for ground, or control of a population of people, it is for political credibility. [/quote]
No, they don’t. Nobody in the UN believes Israel is bent on destroying the Arab world much less Lebanon. The fighting is about displacing Hezbollah, or creating a credible Lebanon. You’ve already bought into the “winning” concept… but it’s a sham.
All this shows is the deep hatred of the Israeli’s in the region. However, Hezbollah is in the news, daily, and they are controlling the news. When the war simmers down more thoughts will be had.
Again, no, they don’t. I’m sure a win will be claimed, but they only win if nobody comes in to control the situation once Israel is done fighting.
They were surprised at the training and weapons capacity. Yeah, so?
No kidding.
I’m not so convinced this has happened.
[quote]There is no spin here. Isreal is in a bit of sticky situation. They can win with ease, but the perception will continue that Hezbollah has pulled off a David to Isreal’s Goliath.
Most of what I have written here was taken from several different documents and analysis that I have read lately. [/quote]
Yes, I know what people are saying, but it’s bullshit. All we are seeing is how difficult it is to take on an enemy that cannot be differentiated from the populace.
There are a lot of people out there who would like to show that war is not useful and that the west can’t “win” and thus should not attempt to use force.
Great post HC, that’s the type of dialogue I’m looking for. No cheerleading in this thread please. Just cold, hard, objective assements of the battlefield situation and political arena due to events unfolding. There are plenty of other threads on that cheerleading crap to bore each other into submission…
Well the UN resolution passed and its going around that Olmert accepted it after Rice told him on the phone that “It was the most she could do for him.” yikes. If that was Sharon, he would have hung up the phone on her and proceeded to bomb downtown Beirut. Olmert is going to come out of this looking like a spineless jellyfish drifting in a sea of indecision. It’s obvious now he only gave the “green light” to a wider offensive as a last ditch effort to get a more favorable resolution. Israel is going to have to get rid of this clown IMMEDIATELY if it hopes to regain its deterrant.
Militarily, I know that the IDF is in pure shock right now about the total failure of it’s campaign. Reportedly over 60 Merkavas knocked out less than 10 miles into Lebanon. Mainly against Russian RPG-29’s and kornets. Russians are going to make a fortune from this one. I bet Merkava orders around the world just went down to about nil. From what I’ve been reading so far on tactics, some are saying that the Israelis didn’t even get to “the meat” of Hezbollah. They were stuck on the outskirts fighting local village reserves sprinkled in with some professional fighters for support. The only success Israel had was through its total domination of the Air and Sea. I bet Iran will be upgrading Hezbollah’s Anti-ship and aircraft arsenal immediately. As far as Israel, they will learn more from this than if they would have rolled Hez up in a few days. They will have to reevaluate the whole military, from leaders, to weapons, to tactical strategies. Air campaigns don’t win wars unless you destroy everything and kill everybody. If you aren’t willing to do that, then you will lose. Most analysts so far say Israel simply picked the wrong war against the wrong enemy with a shit battle plan. (What do you expect? The commanding general is a ex IAF pilot) Hezbollah is not Hamas and they paid dearly in acting like it was. I guess there is some intense fighting still going on but if I was an IDF soldier I wouldn’t be doing any unnecessary charges to save the motherland. Especially knowing on Monday you will be back at the border waiting for the blue helmets to ride in.
So let’s see. World’s view, militarily Hezbollah not only won, they won resoundingly. (Civilian damage doesn’t figure into this assesment since Hezbollah doesn’t own that shit anyway. Even if they did, I bet about 10 merkavas paid for every house in Lebanon that got blown up, and then some.) Israel’s leadership is seen as weak and indecisive in the face of world and military pressure. Invincibility of the Merkava is down the drain as well as Gen. Halutz’s future career. (He’ll try and make some heads roll first to save himself but i doubt he’ll be able to.) Iran is going to feel emboldened since Israel looks impotent and the U.S. is bogged down in that dust bowl Iraq. Their response to the latest Economics package offer will be a defiant No I’m sure. Next couple of days on CNN should make for some good entertainment as the Israel Media’s blitz PR campaign desperately tries to save some face. Interesting times indeed.
[quote]BH6 wrote:
ODogg is right. Hezbollah is fighting a textbook guerilla fight, they win as long as they don’t lose. Every day they continue to launch rockets into Isreal is victory.
Hezbollah is also fielding some pretty advanced anti-tank missles that are allowing them to fight the Isreali army. They are using the Sagger AT-3A, the Metis-M and the Kornet missles, all with thermal night sights.
There is also some evidence of advanced electronic countermeasure systems being deployed by Hezbollah. Apparently the Isreali ship that was hit with the silkworm missle was unable to employ its defense systems due to jamming.
This war is teaching us quite a bit about the Iranian capabilities and how they would fight the United States if they had to.
The Isrealis are pretty suprised by the sophistication of the Hezbollah communications, weapons, and countermeasures. They are in quite a bit of dilemma, do they continue the fight and face more international criticism or do they pull out and appear to be defeated.[/quote]
All the more reason Israel must destroy them now. Negotiating with these people gets nowhere.
They have pledged the destruction of Israel. They will do it someday if Israel does not stop them today.
Some people have posted we should be negotiating with Iran and Syria.
That is rather naive. Iran and Syria will continue to work to destabilize Lebanon and to destroy Israel no matter what diplomatic agreement is reached. Trusting them is foolish.
One solution is to have Israel severly degrade Hezbollahs capabilities and then have a real armed force (not UN peacekeepers) in a buffer zone.
Of course if that happens this armed force will then become a target of Hezbollah. They targeted similar peacekeepers in the 80’s and they probably will again.
Face the facts. Radical Islam has declared war on the West. Just because many of you don’t think we should fight does not mean we can avoid it.
I’m so glad to see some people who are not preconceived as ‘baby-killers’ come into this thread, and explain that this is not to be won, but is possibly the begginning of a very large loss.
Quoting vroom (good point) [quote]You are crowing like there is some victory to be had here. All we are talking about is a failed ability to change the situation.[/quote] That sounds very much like the position a lot of Americans are taking on these threads.
Example- from this thread, by marmadogg (what a great mind, and leader) [quote]
In the Arab world Israel is perceived as weak because their response has been tempered.
I think Israel should just carpet bomb the entire area and let God sort them out.
FU for insinuating that I am cheering on Hezbollah. The reality is Hezbollah is not a bunch of scrubs running around in flip flop carrying Chinese AKs.
Israel should carpet bomb Iran, Syrian, and Lebanon.[/quote]
Many people have pointed out the unsuitability of IDF strategy against guerrillas. The best army in the world can be fucked up by indigenous guerrillas. The basques could just go up a mountain and oops, where’d he go?
That i say this doesn’t mean i’m proud, or supporting of their only strength in war (concealment).
The fact is, Israel say they are keeping land for ‘strategic reasons’, but it is the civilian density, due to Palestinian and Lebanese large populations in small areas, that is the IDF’s downfall. They are fighting a sneaky bastard-team, with tanks.
Vroom made another point about ‘acceptable rules of war’. Every day, lots of war crimes are being committed in this war, by both sides.
Good point. If the war goes on much longer, due to international disapproval, the US will perhaps have to withdraw support for it, once the war crimes tribunals kick off…
Quoting Zap [quote] They have pledged the destruction of Israel. They will do it someday if Israel does not stop them today.
Some people have posted we should be negotiating with Iran and Syria.
That is rather naive. Iran and Syria will continue to work to destabilize Lebanon and to destroy Israel no matter what diplomatic agreement is reached. Trusting them is foolish.
One solution is to have Israel severly degrade Hezbollahs capabilities and then have a real armed force (not UN peacekeepers) in a buffer zone.
Of course if that happens this armed force will then become a target of Hezbollah. They targeted similar peacekeepers in the 80’s and they probably will again.
Face the facts. Radical Islam has declared war on the West. Just because many of you don’t think we should fight does not mean we can avoid it.[/quote]
I’m really trying to not be partisan, but why is it that we feel our imposed-reality is what will remain? Let Muslims get a bit of weaponry, and unity (reinforced by arbitrary shellings no doubt) and realistically, the west is Fucked. We’re outnumbered, if this becomes totally religious, we’re done.
Saying we shouldn’t try to appease the groups in any way is arrogant. That will, i think, lead to another true world war. You know Einsteins quote? ‘I know not what weapons will be used for ww3, but ww4 will be fought with sticks and stones.’ I believe we’re heading that way. The potency of the terrorists can’t really be undermined (can it?) without genocide.
I’m not looking forward to that. The reality is, the more the west push in Israel’s favour, the more the surrounding countries get common cause, and the more the military states arm rebel bastard militias. We need balance, not force. We need to chill the shit out, in my opinion, not go in guns blazing like we are the world. We aren’t.
It needn’t come down to ‘he started it’. The question is, who will finish it? Adding to my own opinion about our folly, is the thorough logistical and strategic insight from several guys in here. IDF aren’t crushing well enough.
These people have pledged to destroy the Great Satan (US) and the Little Satan (Israel). I believe they intend to try their best.
The Israeli’s difficulies just reinforce the follies of appeasement.
They appeased Hezbollah by pulling out of Lebanon 6 years ago. It was a huge mistake. It would be an even stupider mistake to do it again under similar conditions.
This war is not going to end for a long time.
Any strategy pretending it will end soon is flawed.
Marmadogg, if u knew anything about this conflict you’d be aware that almost every Israeli PM has been a senior military/ terrorist leader. What good has it done?
[quote]dannyrat wrote:
Marmadogg, if u knew anything about this conflict you’d be aware that almost every Israeli PM has been a senior military/ terrorist leader. What good has it done? [/quote]
Sharon would have carpet bombed these missle firing cowards.
Israel got suprised. They will adapt and overcome the enemy.
I think they are giving this sham cease fire a chance. It may last a week or two. The Hezbollah thugs will continue to attack and the IDF will hit them even harder. Hezbollah can’t recruit and train nearly as fast. With supply routes cut they can’t rearm as quickly if at all.
The use of advance weaponary is disturbing. It means they are being trained by a government. Iran most likely. It takes a lot of training and balls to fire a man portable anti-tank weapon at a tank. They are easy to fire but to get a hit you have to have some training. Iran needs to have their nose bloodied to get them to change. Look for that in phase two.
[quote]Marmadogg wrote:
In the Arab world Israel is perceived as weak because their response has been tempered.
[/quote]
You’d have to be a fool to describe Israels reaction as tempered
Yup, a fool.
[quote]
FU for insinuating that I am cheering on Hezbollah. The reality is Hezbollah is not a bunch of scrubs running around in flip flop carrying Chinese AKs.
Israel should carpet bomb Iran, Syrian, and Lebanon.[/quote]
Yes, yes, we get the point. Why not nuke the entire area while you’re at it ? ? ?
I see you live in New Jersey. Perhaps we should level New Jersey also? How about that hot shot?
This is the real world man. Not some computer game.
[quote]Odogg wrote:
Great post HC, that’s the type of dialogue I’m looking for. No cheerleading in this thread please. Just cold, hard, objective assements of the battlefield situation and political arena due to events unfolding. There are plenty of other threads on that cheerleading crap to bore each other into submission…
Well the UN resolution passed and its going around that Olmert accepted it after Rice told him on the phone that “It was the most she could do for him.” yikes. If that was Sharon, he would have hung up the phone on her and proceeded to bomb downtown Beirut. Olmert is going to come out of this looking like a spineless jellyfish drifting in a sea of indecision. It’s obvious now he only gave the “green light” to a wider offensive as a last ditch effort to get a more favorable resolution. Israel is going to have to get rid of this clown IMMEDIATELY if it hopes to regain its deterrant.
Militarily, I know that the IDF is in pure shock right now about the total failure of it’s campaign. Reportedly over 60 Merkavas knocked out less than 10 miles into Lebanon. Mainly against Russian RPG-29’s and kornets. Russians are going to make a fortune from this one. I bet Merkava orders around the world just went down to about nil. From what I’ve been reading so far on tactics, some are saying that the Israelis didn’t even get to “the meat” of Hezbollah. They were stuck on the outskirts fighting local village reserves sprinkled in with some professional fighters for support. The only success Israel had was through its total domination of the Air and Sea. I bet Iran will be upgrading Hezbollah’s Anti-ship and aircraft arsenal immediately. As far as Israel, they will learn more from this than if they would have rolled Hez up in a few days. They will have to reevaluate the whole military, from leaders, to weapons, to tactical strategies. Air campaigns don’t win wars unless you destroy everything and kill everybody. If you aren’t willing to do that, then you will lose. Most analysts so far say Israel simply picked the wrong war against the wrong enemy with a shit battle plan. (What do you expect? The commanding general is a ex IAF pilot) Hezbollah is not Hamas and they paid dearly in acting like it was. I guess there is some intense fighting still going on but if I was an IDF soldier I wouldn’t be doing any unnecessary charges to save the motherland. Especially knowing on Monday you will be back at the border waiting for the blue helmets to ride in.
So let’s see. World’s view, militarily Hezbollah not only won, they won resoundingly. (Civilian damage doesn’t figure into this assesment since Hezbollah doesn’t own that shit anyway. Even if they did, I bet about 10 merkavas paid for every house in Lebanon that got blown up, and then some.) Israel’s leadership is seen as weak and indecisive in the face of world and military pressure. Invincibility of the Merkava is down the drain as well as Gen. Halutz’s future career. (He’ll try and make some heads roll first to save himself but i doubt he’ll be able to.) Iran is going to feel emboldened since Israel looks impotent and the U.S. is bogged down in that dust bowl Iraq. Their response to the latest Economics package offer will be a defiant No I’m sure. Next couple of days on CNN should make for some good entertainment as the Israel Media’s blitz PR campaign desperately tries to save some face. Interesting times indeed.
[/quote]
While I don’t agree on some details, this looks like a very accurate analysis of the situation.
Israel got suprised. They will adapt and overcome the enemy.
I think they are giving this sham cease fire a chance. It may last a week or two. The Hezbollah thugs will continue to attack and the IDF will hit them even harder. Hezbollah can’t recruit and train nearly as fast. With supply routes cut they can’t rearm as quickly if at all.
The use of advance weaponary is disturbing. It means they are being trained by a government. Iran most likely. It takes a lot of training and balls to fire a man portable anti-tank weapon at a tank. They are easy to fire but to get a hit you have to have some training. Iran needs to have their nose bloodied to get them to change. Look for that in phase two.[/quote]
Sure it’s over. For a couple of years at least.
Israel wasn’t surprised. They picked this fight. They wanted it like Bush wanted Iraq. Bush egged them on. They weren’t getting what they had hoped for, but that’s not about being surprised. That’s about fooling yourself into believing your own propaganda.
Hezbollah will lay low for a while, at least a couple of years. They have their victory. They won’t risk loosing it. They’ll regroup, recruit, rearm and train.
Supply lines are cut? They’re not. Iran will be most pleased by Hezbollahs performance and will send resupplies immidiately. Syria will let them through. Reluctantly.
Who’s going to bloody Irans nose in phase 2? Israel is not going anywhere soon after this debacle. The US is still stuck in Iraq. Who then?
Iran will be more confident than ever.
What Israel could do is open negotiations with Syria. Each has something the other wants. Give them back the Golan heights and then you’ll really have cut off their main supply lines.
