[quote]DrSkeptix wrote:
[quote]DoubleDuce wrote:
[quote]DrSkeptix wrote:
[quote]DoubleDuce wrote:
[quote]nickj_777 wrote:
This is a popular argument supporting Double Duce Human Lifespans Nearly Constant for 2,000 Years | Live Science [/quote]
Yes, that is basically what I’m saying. A 40 year life expectancy doesn’t mean what people think it means.
And I’d still like to see numbers with abortion factored in. The most dangerous time for a human life today is probably the womb.[/quote]
…and that article misses the point. Even when you take out the large contribution of the decline in infant mortality, life expectancy at any age (beyond childhood) has risen over the last hundred or so years.
(view again that CDC graph–percent surviving at a given age over time–I cited above.)[/quote]
But not nearly as much as people think when they see a life expectancy of 38. And not nearly as much as I would have guessed.
I think you are missing my point. When people see a life expectancy in the 1800s of 40, they think 40 is like being 80 today. It wasn’t. A 40 year old then was really in as good of shape as a 40 year old today. It’s a reflection on health and wellbeing more than survivability. Longevity of health really hasn’t improved, survivability despite health has. And general health can be seen to be decreasing with an ever increasing occurrence of conditions. Just so far, medicine has increased survivability enough to compensate. BUT it looks like we are starting to lose that battle.
Further, I believe that there is a link even if indirect (though I think some is direct) between medicine and a decline in health.[/quote]
These are valid questions, and some of them are testable. So do you have a statistic that demonstrates them?
For example, you conceptualize “the longevity of health,” and your conjecture is that it is not improved.
If the data show that the chances of being alive at every decade of life hs indeed improved over time–and it has–it would take a huge decrement in “longevity 0f health” to prove you correct.
Is there a measure of such a thing. Why, yes: QALY (quality-adjusted life years).
I am honestly interested, and could not find any such data. It may exist, and I will search harder. Can you show us the data where that QALY has declined–overall–in the US over a period of time.
This is a “provable” assertion; if you cannot prove something, it is just an opinion, and the basis of the opinion is questioned.
[/quote]
I agree, it would take a significant decline in general health to overcome the constantly improved survivability of conditions.
You could get at something close to what I’m talking about by looking at trends in chronic conditions. What have likelihood of getting arthritis, heart disease, cancer, diabetes, osteoporosis, dementia, obesity, est been doing adjusted for age?
Sickness and disease at all levels of life are certainly more and more treatable every year. But, if we are getting sick more and more, the 2 start to balance each other out.
Look at the US life expectancy versus some European and Asian countries. It’s been shown we have better survivability of conditions than pretty much all of them. We just get sick a lot more than they do.
If you were to take the average American today in average health and put them in the 1850s would they survive as well and be as healthy as the average person in the 1850s? I think not.
As for the tie-in with medicine. It is undeniable the x-rays have given people cancer. The low fat high grain diet is pushed by doctors. Coconut oil was demonized by bad medical studies. The whole cholesterol myth has probably killed millions. The industryâ??s focus on treating symptoms rather than causes. Doctors not pushing what is known and has been known about the link between lifestyle and diet and cancer. Overmedication and prescription drug deaths. est.
If you really want to get technical with the subject of the thread, the current approach to the treatment and prevention of heart disease is little less than malpractice leading to the death of hundreds of thousands of people every year. Period. What doctors tell patients about diet and medication for heart disease is a freaking crime. Yes, they can revive you and do amazing open heart surgery now, but doctors share a lot of responsibility in giving people the condition in the first place. (I’m more than a little jaded on the subject)