The thing about the Diaz match-up is:
- GSP’s best skill set is his wrestling, Shields just happens to be a guy who is arguably better than GSP on the ground, and really his only chance of victory was that it wound up being a grappling match. As a result, GSP had to try to keep the fight standing. Shields had the benefit of watching the GSP/Koscheck fight and game planning to deal with GSP’s jabs. He is also a very, very tough fighter and was able to take everything Dan Henderson threw at him; it was pretty far fetched that GSP would be able to KO him.
Diaz on the other hand is not nearly the wrestler that Shields is. Yeah, he’s got good Jiu-Jitsu, but GSP has shown several times that he can control and dominate pure BJJ guys on the ground (Penn and Serra). I really don’t think that Diaz could submit him off his back, and I see GSP winding up on top whenever it did go to the ground. For this reason I think GSP would have no quams about taking Diaz down and pounding on him from there.
I don’t however see GSP finishing Diaz on the ground, either by submission of TKO though as Diaz has never been submitted (to the best of my knowledge anyhow) and has got a great chin/heart. Maybe something like a ref stoppage due to GSP getting a mounted crucifix and preventing him from defending himself effectively could happen, but that’s about it IMO.
- Diaz likes to stand and trade, basically overwhelm his opponents with the sheer volume of punches he throws. He’s not one of those guys like Rashad or Edgar who is constantly moving around, lunging into range to land some strikes than quickly clearing back out of range. As a result I don’t see GSP having any trouble running through him with a takedown. Which leads back to point 1.
I just think that Shield’s style/strengths had a lot to do with GSP not looking all that great (in the first 2 rounds, the last three were a significantly handicapped version of GSP). I don’t think that Diaz’s style would cause the same result.