Football Predictions.
I’m in!
O.K. escot, lets agree on a format. I don’t want to take up space in A.A’s thread either, good idea. We can battle it out here.
escot4 wrote:
"My problem with that scoring system is that it is not an accurate reflection of the player’s performance on the field. With 59 yards counting the same as 40 in terms of points, those other 19 yards count for nothing, which makes no sense. If we make predictions solely based on the actual amount of yards gained and number of touchdowns, it will take a lot of the luck out of the equation and make it much more skill-based. I know you like predicting the exact amount of yards of players too, so I think the method that I proposed would be a more accurate way of measuring our predictions.
Just think about it, anyone can say “I think so and so will get 10 yahoo points,” but it’s much more difficult to predict their actual yardage and TDs. What I’m saying is, I will be able to predict players’ yardage and TDs from week to week better than you. Not their yahoo points. I know I said you could pick the system, but the yahoo system involves way too much luck in my opinion. I want to take luck out of it as much as possible and make it more about skill, because that way I know I will win. Are you up for that? "
I want the luck factor destroyed. I also play No Limit Tournament Texas Hold Em… so don’t tell me about luck vs skill. I’m Phil Helmuth dammit!
Anyway. We still need a format for a point system.
How are you going to propose a point system for 149 yard prediction and an actual 89 yard total. You can’t sub 60 points. If so, how will you calculate td points?
You have to figure out how many yards equal 1 point, and how much td’s are worth in points.
You’ll have to create a new system.
I submit a touchdown is worth 50 yards rushing. So a 10 point system.
1 td = 5 points
10 rush/reception yards = 1 point
so 1 yard or 9 yards = 1 point
34 or 39 = 3 points
Passing yards can go by 25 yards = 1 point
249 = 9 points
250 = 10 points
274 = 10 points
275 = 11 points …and so on
I didn’t mean you predict the yards/TDs for both RBs and WRs together. You predict each individually still… I just meant that you do that for 2 players at those positions. For example:
RB: Westbrook- 71 yds rush, 58 yds rec, 2 TD.
RB: LT- 107 yds rush, 26 yds rec, 1 TD… like that.
Then you would get a point for every yard you were off by, and 60 points for every TD you were off by. The person closest to zero at the end of the week would win for that week. By each of us predicting 10 players total (all the same players) and using exact yards, we don’t have to worry about picking the same as each other. The winner would likely be very clear-cut each week.
Since I’m eager to get the predictions going (but don’t want to start so early in the week) why don’t we predict a few players for tonight’s game?
[quote]escot4 wrote:
I didn’t mean you predict the yards/TDs for both RBs and WRs together. You predict each individually still… I just meant that you do that for 2 players at those positions. For example:
RB: Westbrook- 71 yds rush, 58 yds rec, 2 TD.
RB: LT- 107 yds rush, 26 yds rec, 1 TD… like that.
Then you would get a point for every yard you were off by, and 60 points for every TD you were off by. The person closest to zero at the end of the week would win for that week. By each of us predicting 10 players total (all the same players) and using exact yards, we don’t have to worry about picking the same as each other. The winner would likely be very clear-cut each week.[/quote]
That seems a little off to me. Predicting 2 td’s and getting none is -120 points, then predicting 61 yards and he gets exactly 61 yards and you take away zero points. with that system, the highest point scorers will sway the system if you don’t predict them accurate. Meaning you could take a low point scorer and be completly off and only sub 40 points, meanwhile you are almost dead on… on the top scorer but you fell a td short and have to sub 60.
Your system is flawed big time.
[quote]escot4 wrote:
Since I’m eager to get the predictions going (but don’t want to start so early in the week) why don’t we predict a few players for tonight’s game?[/quote]
OK by yahoo fantasy points is the easiest way, unless you want to change the system.
Take the top 3 from each team and put a yahoo fantasy point total on each one.
Favre
Green
Driver
McNabb
Westbrook
Stallworth
How about that?
[quote]Go heavy fool wrote:
escot4 wrote:
I want the luck factor destroyed. I also play No Limit Tournament Texas Hold Em… so don’t tell me about luck vs skill. I’m Phil Helmuth dammit!
Anyway. We still need a format for a point system.
How are you going to propose a point system for 149 yard prediction and an actual 89 yard total. You can’t sub 60 points. If so, how will you calculate td points?
You have to figure out how many yards equal 1 point, and how much td’s are worth in points.
You’ll have to create a new system.
I submit a touchdown is worth 50 yards rushing. So a 10 point system.
1 td = 5 points
10 rush/reception yards = 1 point
so 1 yard or 9 yards = 1 point
34 or 39 = 3 points
Passing yards can go by 25 yards = 1 point
249 = 9 points
250 = 10 points
274 = 10 points
275 = 11 points …and so on[/quote]
That sounds good for the most part, but the only thing I don’t like is the 1 yard or 9 yards equalling 1 point. I want every yard to count.
So, how about:
1 TD= 50 points
1 yd= 1 point.
It’s almost the same as yours.
Then for passing:
1 TD= 50 points
2.5 yds= 1 point (it’s the same ratio as you proposed, but with fractional points, every yard is accounted for)
Does that work for you?
The only other thing… for RBs and WRs, do you want to separate rushing and receiving yards or keep them together and just predict them as yards from scrimmage?
You know what, scrap all that horseshit.
We can go with the predictions tonight but after that, why don’t we just make it a player Vs player challange. We won’t have to predict points. but you sort of will, you will have to predict who you think will put up the mosy points.
We can both take 2 Qbs, 2 RBS, & 3 WR’s everyweek. The guy that has the highest yahoo fantasy point total everyweek amongst all his players wins. You will still have to guess and predict who will come out with the most points.
This should be more fun. It will give us a reason to actually root for some players.
You can make any format you want. But I think those 7 would be good.
How to pick them would go like this.
Your pick
My pick
Your pick
My pick … until all 14 are picked. You can pick anyone you want QB,WR, or RB. what do you think? If not, come up with a system dammit. I’m ready to get the ball rolling too!
lol I like how only you two have talked in this whole thread haha. Anyways I have no clue what your talking about so carry on!
[quote]escot4 wrote:
So, how about:
1 TD= 50 points
1 yd= 1 point.
[/quote]
I have a major problem with this.
That does make it accurate for for yardage. But TD’s are now hit or miss. Going from +50 to - 50. That swing is rediculous, do you see this?
Again 132 yard prediction and 120 actual means -12.
Now 2 td prediction
0td actual = -100
No fuckin way!
Your making the yardage too easy and the td’s too hard.
Yardage goes on a 1 point sway, td’s on a 50 point sway. It’s too lopsided.
[quote]Go heavy fool wrote:
You know what, scrap all that horseshit.
We can both take 2 Qbs, 2 RBS, & 3 WR’s everyweek. The guy that has the highest yahoo fantasy point total everyweek amongst all his players wins. You will still have to guess and predict who will come out with the most points.
This should be more fun. It will give us a reason to actually root for some players.
You can make any format you want. But I think those 7 would be good.
How to pick them would go like this.
Your pick
My pick
Your pick
My pick … until all 14 are picked. You can pick anyone you want QB,WR, or RB. what do you think? If not, come up with a system dammit. I’m ready to get the ball rolling too![/quote]
Well, the whole reason for this was predictions in the first place. Here, let me post a thorough description of the scoring system that I would like to use… it will make sense. I’ll post it in about 15 minutes.
Predicting yardage is alot more accurate than predicting td’s.
I got LT’s o td’s prediction right, but that was not easy. He could have easily scored 0,1, or 2. alot of leeway there with L.T. and a tough def. I happen to come out on top. But my yardage prediction was easier and I missed by 48, 29 was a breakaway run. 70-80 rushing yards should have been the prediction I would have made, but since I was trying to prove a point to A.A. that his fantasy value was shit this week, a measly 4 points and I was prediting 3. I even subbed it to 60 yards; reality I was guessing 75 yards, that was as low as I could give him and still maybe come out close to that. If I was rooting for LT, maybe I would have given him 90-100 yards, which in hindsight would have been right on.
[quote]escot4 wrote:
Go heavy fool wrote:
You know what, scrap all that horseshit.
We can both take 2 Qbs, 2 RBS, & 3 WR’s everyweek. The guy that has the highest yahoo fantasy point total everyweek amongst all his players wins. You will still have to guess and predict who will come out with the most points.
This should be more fun. It will give us a reason to actually root for some players.
You can make any format you want. But I think those 7 would be good.
How to pick them would go like this.
Your pick
My pick
Your pick
My pick … until all 14 are picked. You can pick anyone you want QB,WR, or RB. what do you think? If not, come up with a system dammit. I’m ready to get the ball rolling too!
Well, the whole reason for this was predictions in the first place. Here, let me post a thorough description of the scoring system that I would like to use… it will make sense. I’ll post it in about 15 minutes.
[/quote]
I tried doing that, but you keeo wanting to change the system so I threw some more ideas at you.
Forget it. I will come up with the perfect system for accurate system. Yours are so lopsided, let me do the headwork. tThere is going to ba a margin of error because of the two different variables of yardage and td’s. The problem is including them in the same system.
Hold up, lem me put GHF’s brain into gear here and come up with the 2 variable system. The only constants that don’t flaw this is the positions, those don’t seem to matter.
more to follow…
Ok, here’s my scoring system, and I think this one will be suitable for both of us. Forget what I have said in the previous posts.
1)One of us predicts the amount of yards and TDs for 1 QB, 2 RB (separately), and 2 WR (separately). Here’s an example of what that would look like:
QB P.Manning: 252 yds, 2 TD
RB R.Bush: 96 yds, 0 TD
RB L.Johnson: 113 yds, 3 TD
WR S.Smith: 97 yds, 1 TD
WR A.Johnson: 80 yds, 1 TD
Now, for QBs, we predict passing stats only. For RBs and WRs, yards are “yards from scrimmage.”
2)The other person then predicts the amounts of yards and TDs for 5 OTHER players, using the same format.
3)We then both predict the amount of yards and TDs for the players that the other person chose. At that point, we will each have our own predictions for the same 10 players.
4)Points are bad. You get points for being off target with your predictions. The person closest to ZERO points at the end of the week wins.
5)The point system will be as follows:
QB: Every 2 passing yards will be worth a point, with fractional points counting as well. Every passing TD will be worth 30 points.
Ex: Say I predicted Peyton Manning would throw for 252 yds and 2 TD.
Yesterday, he actually threw for 217 yds and 1 TD.
Since I was off by 35 yds, I would get 17.5 pts for that, and 30 more points for being off by a TD. Total: 47.5 pts.
RB: Every single yard from scrimmage is worth 1 point. Every TD is worth 30 points.
Ex: Say I predicted LJ would get 113 yards from scrimmage and 3 TD.
Yesterday, he actually went for 142 yds and 2 TD.
Therefore, I would get 29 pts for the yards + 30 for being off by a TD. Total: 59 pts.
WR: (same as RB) Say I predicted Andre Johnson would get 80 yards from scrimmage and a TD.
Yesterday, he gained 101 yards and scored 1 TD. Therefore, I would get 21 points for him.
So, for the 3 players that I showed in the examples, I accumulated a total of 127.5 points. Remember, we will do this for a total of 10 players, and the person with the LEAST total points wins for that week.
I really think this system will work well. We can try it for tonight’s game just as a test run so that you can get used to the scoring system. You don’t need to worry about doing the math or anything, all you have to do is pick your players and predict their yards and TDs.
Is this okay?
OK “The System” by GHF
Yardage will be exact. Minus 1 point per yard that deviates from the total predicted.
TD’s will be worth the same 1 point. Total td’s scored minus the deviation from the actual. Example… If I predict 3 and you predict 1 and the actual is 2, then its a wash and the catagory will be scratched.
There will be 2 winning or losing or wash points per fantasy athlete for a sum of 12 total points. the winner needs to win by 7 catagory points or a 7-5 score considering no wash out points.
2 qbs, 2 rbs, 2 wr’s… each of us get to choose 1 of each.
Example of yards prediction.
L.T.
your prediction 100 yards
my prediction 120 yards
actual 109 yards
Winner of the catagory would be you, so you are +1
alot of the td prediction will wash as they should, they’re very hard to predict, and if you have a feeling than you will be right on.
Example qb td prediction
Manning
my prediction 4 td’s
your prediction 2 td’s
actual is 4 td’s
I win am add +1 to my total for winning the catagory.
Gotta better system? Doubt it. This is right on for prediction accuracy. You know as well as I do td’s are tougher than yardage and it’s set accordingly and balanced in favor of neither td’s nor yardage.
How about one of you with a mace and one with a battle hammer and then go at it for 15 minutes.
That’s alot cooler than all this bickering … for the rest of us anyway.
[quote]escot4 wrote:
Ok, here’s my scoring system, and I think this one will be suitable for both of us. Forget what I have said in the previous posts.
1)One of us predicts the amount of yards and TDs for 1 QB, 2 RB (separately), and 2 WR (separately). Here’s an example of what that would look like:
QB P.Manning: 252 yds, 2 TD
RB R.Bush: 96 yds, 0 TD
RB L.Johnson: 113 yds, 3 TD
WR S.Smith: 97 yds, 1 TD
WR A.Johnson: 80 yds, 1 TD
Now, for QBs, we predict passing stats only. For RBs and WRs, yards are “yards from scrimmage.”
2)The other person then predicts the amounts of yards and TDs for 5 OTHER players, using the same format.
3)We then both predict the amount of yards and TDs for the players that the other person chose. At that point, we will each have our own predictions for the same 10 players.
4)Points are bad. You get points for being off target with your predictions. The person closest to ZERO points at the end of the week wins.
5)The point system will be as follows:
QB: Every 2 passing yards will be worth a point, with fractional points counting as well. Every passing TD will be worth 30 points.
Ex: Say I predicted Peyton Manning would throw for 252 yds and 2 TD.
Yesterday, he actually threw for 217 yds and 1 TD.
Since I was off by 35 yds, I would get 17.5 pts for that, and 30 more points for being off by a TD. Total: 47.5 pts.
RB: Every single yard from scrimmage is worth 1 point. Every TD is worth 30 points.
Ex: Say I predicted LJ would get 113 yards from scrimmage and 3 TD.
Yesterday, he actually went for 142 yds and 2 TD.
Therefore, I would get 29 pts for the yards + 30 for being off by a TD. Total: 59 pts.
WR: (same as RB) Say I predicted Andre Johnson would get 80 yards from scrimmage and a TD.
Yesterday, he gained 101 yards and scored 1 TD. Therefore, I would get 21 points for him.
So, for the 3 players that I showed in the examples, I accumulated a total of 127.5 points. Remember, we will do this for a total of 10 players, and the person with the LEAST total points wins for that week.
I really think this system will work well. We can try it for tonight’s game just as a test run so that you can get used to the scoring system. You don’t need to worry about doing the math or anything, all you have to do is pick your players and predict their yards and TDs.
Is this okay? [/quote]
Again I like the yardage predictions for every yard = a point having a 1 point swing. But I don’t like the hit or miss 30 point swing with td’s. thats too much luck. The yardage is pure accuracy. The values are off.
[quote]JFS wrote:
How about one of you with a mace and one with a battle hammer and then go at it for 15 minutes.
That’s alot cooler than all this bickering … for the rest of us anyway.[/quote]
Who is “US”… you’re the only idiot that used his freewill and decided to post on a thread between two guys having some fun with fantasy prediction.
Nobody asked you to crawl your ass into my thread and read me and escot’s bullshit.
Now crawl your way back out the door, before I release cujo on your ass.
Freewill people. Read another thread. this one has mine and escots name on it. This is for us to argue.
[quote]dl- wrote:
lol I like how only you two have talked in this whole thread haha. Anyways I have no clue what your talking about so carry on![/quote]
That was kind of the point! numnutz…
Anybody else peeking in here, we’ll be having anal sex later with the Hawaiian Tropic girls? In case you wanna know.
Ok, we’ll use the system that you just posted.
I’m not sure if you already said something about this, but I think for TDs, we should be able to pick the same number if we both predict that. For example, if I think Driver will get 1 TD, you shouldn’t have to pick 2 or 0 if you think the same. Sound good?
Go ahead and start off with your 3 picks for tonight whenever you’re ready.