[quote]rainjack wrote:
GDollars37 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
GDollars37 wrote:
First of all, we haven’t won yet. The country is apparently like night and day compared to two years ago, but that is mostly due to the Anbar Awakening, not the “surge.” 30,000 extra troops were not and could not be decisive in a war like that. I’m sure it helped, especially in Baghdad, but it was not what turned it around.
Things still very much have the potential to go south. No one has been following the news about the SOI, especially in Diyala?
And all that aside, international reputation aside, four thousand dead Americans aside, tens of thousands of dead Iraqis aside - the war cost $3 TRILLION. And that’s the conservative estimate.
The awakening would not have happened had there been no surge.
The Awakening predated the surge by six months. That should be common knowledge to anyone who really follows the war.
Sorry, but without the surge, the awakening would have just been a trip to the bathroom in the middle of the night.
I know you hate the war, and look for every possible opportunity to voice your hatred, but things are looking up - and except for some perfunctory house cleaning in the south, we should have it all sewed up, and start bringing soldiers home next year.
Then maybe we can start taking some of that oil we went over there for in the first place.
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The Awakening (and to a lesser extent the fact that Sadr called a ceasefire because he was losing control of his organization) are what dropped the violence in Iraq so dramatically, along with Petraeus’ decision to have troops live among the Iraqis and provide population security.
The extra 30,000 troops helped, especially in Baghdad, but they did not magically “win the war.” They were probably the least important factor. 30,000 soldiers, of whom a minority are infantry, are not going to turn the tide in a counterinsurgency in a country of 25 million.
Yes, I think the war was, as one of General Petraeus’ closest advisors, David Kilcullen, admitted in an unguarded moment, “fucking stupid.” I think most rational people feel that way. Do you “love” the war?
And again, violence has dropped through the floor, no question. But if Maliki screws over the SOIs they could start up the insurgency again, which they are threatening to do already. We’re not out of the woods yet, whatever Joe Lieberman may tell you.