IMHO that is a wrong assumption. Back in the 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s bodybuilding was a fringe activity, even in the early 80s training with weights to get more muscular was often seen as odd. This means that few people lifted weights to get more muscular, at least a very small number compared to today. And those who trained hard often did so to compensate for being scrawny…the typical example is Larry Scott who started training because he was small… ended up being the first Mr.Olympia.
I would go as far as say that most of the best muscle building genetics didn’t even train in the 40s up to the 70s. It’s only when being muscular was sought after than more and more people started training hard, leading to more of the good genetics being involved.
Now the argument could be made that the modern day natural bodybuilders represent the genetic elite since being muscular is popular now. But I stand by my original point that BY FAR the best muscle and strength genetics IN THE WORLD play high level football (top colleges and pro). In fact a chinese national weightlifting coach was once asked why the US is struggling in olympic lifting. His answer was “thank God for American football”.
I have worked with athletes in 28 different sports and with pro bodybuilders and I will tell you that what I’m saying is totally true: the best muscle building genetics are in football.
An a lot of the top genetics get into enhanced bodybuilding. Of course since these top guys are “enhanced” they can’t be used to design the formula. But the fact is that quite a few of the IFBB pros you see on stage would still exceed the natural “limit” if they stayed natural. YES some of them are there because of the drugs, but you do have plenty with genetic gifts on top of the drugs and it is my belief that many of them would exceed the formula.
That’s what I’m saying, if you want to design a formula that establish THE LIMIT (as in going above that is impossible) you must factor in the upper echelon too. It would be like saying that it is impossible for an athlete to be taller than 6’7" without including basketball players in the equation.
I understand that the formula is designed for bodybuilders. But bodybuilding is just a “sport”. What the formula is really measuring is the limit of how much muscle someone can have naturally. What does it matter if the person built the muscle by being a bodybuilder or training for football? I’m telling you, some top football players look more like bodybuilders than natural bodybuilders do themselves.
Normally I wouldn’t mind the formula. In fact for what it’s worth I think it gives a decent idea of what is achievable for most. But making it the ultimate guide to know if someone is using is dumb. Accusing someone of being a drug user can destroy one’s reputation. So you can’t so that lightly. And if outliers and genetically gifted individuals are not included in the creation of the formula then these freaks who can be above the “normal level” while still being natural will automatically be labelled as juicers just because they are lucky.
I’ll give you a analogy and I’ll stay on the drug topic. Testosterone drug tests… Testosterone is not detected the same way as other steroids because it is bioidentical to your own hormone. To test for testosterone doping they use the testosterone to epitestosterone ratio…epi test normally mirrors test. So in a “normal/average” body testo and epitesto should be 1:1 … BUT THERE ARE OUTLIERS; so the test actually allows for a 4:1 testosterone to epitestosterone ratio before suspecting doping… in fact it used to be 6:1.
I have nothing against a fomula to calculate the limit of what is achievable naturally, but only if it accounts for the genetically gifted… they are human beings too after all.
I think that the formula if used properly can be very useful: it can manage expectations… if someone thinks he can get to 240 lean on 5’9" naturally then that is what he will expect and when he doesn’t progress toward that he could get discouraged, lose focus with his training or start using drugs.
But the perverse side of the formula, and the reason why it is popular IMHO is that people DO NOT WANT TO BELIEVE THAT SOMEONE IS BETTER THAN THEM. If he is a lot more muscular than me, then he is un drugs. That saves your ego. The formula gives these insecure people a way to boost their own self-esteem, but at the possible expense of someone else’s reputation.
To recap:
I think that the formula is likely accurate for 90-95% of the population. And can thus be a good way to establish realistic expectations. But since it doesn’t account for the outliers I have a problem with using it to “prove” that someone is using drugs.