Again, you seem to be under the impression that herd immunity needs to be reached in some arbitrary time frame, otherwise we won’t reach it. You’re also forgetting that the first case in the US was on January 19th, and 2.5 months later we’re at (today) 273,000 cases - again, that we know of. The real number is almost certainly in the millions already.
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Not at all. I’m just saying if we are all locked up we won’t reach it until we are released again and the numbers spike
Or… We reduce cases significantly, those left infected are so few (say under 100-1000) that we can all reintegrate into society, those infected are forcibly isolated.
Response to new infections will be instantaneously tracking of all close contacts, said contacts are put into isolation (similar to how S Korea/Singapore have been handling the situation)
You would reduce cases if society remains quarantined without a treatment or vaccine we would just have repeated spikes and lock downs.
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Doesn’t sound like the land of the free and the home of the brave at all.
Our government has slowly been edging towards authoritarianism for a while now (in my opinion)
No but this situation is pretty unique. Probably beats land of the free and home of the dead.
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Things aren’t really looking good for Singapore right now.
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How so? They’ve got 1000 cases going up at about 5% per day with a rapidly increasing rate of those recovering from Covid-19 vs America… almost 300,000 cases and 1000+ deaths per day
They could be right at the start of a large surge in local cases. Which means community transmission may begin to increase exponentially.
https://www.againstcovid19.com/singapore/dashboard/infection_sources
I could be wrong and their contact tracing team is actually better than the Mossad’s.
perhaps, but typically one sees a surge in case numbers during exponential growth, as was prevalent within the USA/Aus when case numbers started rising 25-50%/day, not 5%/day.
But you’re correct… only time will tell whether they have a massive surge, as of this moment their contact tracking system has generally been very impressive. As of recent they’ve closed schools/workplaces.
As of yesterday the increase rate in Aus was only 4.4%, we acted (relatively) soon enough that we may see our peak no# of cases mid April (this month)
Which is why I linked the chart showing local vs imported cases.
Still, if you look at the no# of active cases they’ve been on a steady curve for about a month now, not exactly mimicking the concept of exponential growth. Furthermore, if they can blunt the increase in infection rates it’ll instill less burden upon the healthcare system. It’s just about impossible to wipe out the infection entirely, but you can blunt the rate at which cases rise. Singapore took a slightly different approach (and acted early), said approach hasn’t exactly been ineffective
The fact is… Singapore is doing far better than the majority of developed countries… one can’t refute this.
The USA will not come out on top here, not even close (regarding death rates, number of cases etc), nor will Spain, Belgium, France, Italy etc… China should have a lot to answer for here… I prey the world as a generalisation doesn’t allow them to re-write history
That being said this is no excuse for racism… in Australia we have certain demographics who are discriminating against immigrants from China (who haven’t been to China in ages… generally have nothing to do with China), it’s despicable and needs to be stopped.
Blame Chinas communistic, authoritarian regime… not the populace/people from China
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This is true.
“The vast majority of people infected with COVID-19, between 50 and 75 per cent are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion,”
So what use is it for those with minor symptoms to isolate when those with no symptoms are just as likely to have the virus? It appears that the approach being taken is not going to work. I’m no expert, but my opinion is that the elderly and those with existing health conditions are the ones who need to be isolated because those are the ones who are likely to need hospital care or end up dying.
These 50-75% are initially asymptomatic, viral latency period can last up to 14 days. There’s one case report if I recall of someone remaining asymptomatic for like 20+ days… They’d have to follow up on those testing positive 14-21 days later to ensue they were still asymptomatic in order for a legitimate figure to be accurately established.
Pertaining to “how many infected stay asymptomatic forever” the rate is probably far lower than 50%. These people need to isolate because with say a 1% mortality rate (probably a bit higher than this) and mass spread within the community, hospitals are still overwhelmed.
Have you seen what’s happening in NY, Italy etc… This is no joke, if you’re a fuckwit (not you), going out and spreading this to the greater community you deserve to be fined heavily… like for literally every single asset you have (said money should go towards hospitals/production of ventilators)… then you should probably have it on you’re record, so when you apply for a job post economic fallout the person hiring can read “this dipshit put others at risk, didn’t abide by quarantine protocol”.
Keep in mind I’m not talking about you… this is genuinely my opinion though
How many people have preexisting conditions? In the US, I wouldn’t be surprised if over half the people have one.
Question, guys.
With our Big Cities (especially New York) struggling…Italy has been off the news in the U.S.
Have Italy’s infection/mortality curves begun to “flatten out”?
What is the condition of things in Italy now?
Thanks!
In Canada they are saying 25% or more, but the full picture is not yet clear and mroe info is coming out
What you have to realize is that most people who are going around and spreading it have no idea they are even sick.
I think it’s something like 30% over there, based on something I read recently. The US is unique due to the number of obese and sick people. But here’s the thing - are these fat and sick people actually being isolated or are they going out grocery shopping and maybe going to work too? It looks like maybe the wrong people are being isolated or staying home.
Not sure but I saw that Spain has less and less infections each day lately.
Yes. Percentage-wise the number of new contagions is dropping (R is 0,98). Hopefully they’ve hit the peak.
One thing that has to said about Italy - despite it being a country of 60 million people, the majority of horror stories are coming from the province of Lombardy (10 million), more precise the city of Bergamo.
Now, Bergamo is a town of only 100k (metropolitan area 500k) and the body count is brutal. I cannot even fathom what will happen in NYC which is on the same trajectory.
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