COVID19: Perspective From A (Sort Of...) Expert-Adjacent Person

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Overdosed On Pot

PhD on PCP. (Implying that one has used a lot of pcp.)

The only issue i have with this whole vaccine subject…is the the vaccine manufacturers by law cannot be held liable…and thats where this all starts

Want to hear a horrible story?

Ok.

So, I’m in a high risk category (chf) and consulted with my cardiologist as to whether or not I should get vaccinated. He said it would be a good idea, so I did. I went and got my first shot in mid march of 2021. A week later I was in the ER with a 95% blockage of my circumflex. Fortunately the good doctor was able to clear it and place a stent.

You know what makes it a horrible story?

I left out the fact that the blockage was known about since December of the previous year and was being monitored.

Everything in that story is 100% true though.

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You’re right, I didn’t fully understand the methodology. I reread the article.

However, the same flaw still exists. A person who believes that vaccines are killing people would be more inclined to report a death that happened very soon after the vaccination. This is simple confirmation bias.

In short, the basic problem with his methodology is that he is basing his analysis on a survey of people who chose whether or not they want to respond. Such an analysis will never be scientific. Worse, his respondents themselves probably have a bias and, despite his protestations to the contrary, can probably intuitively understand whether or not the data they are supplying is likely to support the conclusion that they believe.

In order for this study to be valid, he needs to do the same analysis with a large sample of vaccinated people that died in the described period that were chosen at random from all of the vaccinated people that died in the period. Better yet, he could do the analysis on all vaccinated people that died in the period. Short of that, his failure is that he can’t reasonably expect that his sample is representative.

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It doesn’t matter how it makes me feel. Facts don’t care about my feelings.

The data collection is horribly unscientific. Whether or not you think you can wave your hand at the obvious flaws is irrelevant. There are obvious flaws.

This is actually a great example of another thing that tends to happen…people who have heard a scary story about vaccines doing something bad, who are already primed to believe vaccines are risky, now tend to attribute basically anything bad that happens to anyone they know who’s vaccinated to the vaccines.

The same is true of hardcore COVID-fearers, by the way. Anything bad that happens is COVID. Headache? You must have long COVID. Short of breath today? Permanent lung damage from COVID! Grandma had a stroke? MUST HAVE BEEN COVID!

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I actually don’t have strong feelings in favor of vaccines. I think the vaccine mandate is wrong, believe there was quite a bit of shady messaging around vaccines, and don’t think COVID vaccines make sense for most people.

On the other hand, I do have strong feelings about people who pretend to do science when what they are really doing is internet surveys. The unreliability of internet surveys is probably a meme at this point. The whole thing is a joke.

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Not trying to be combative, but just for posterity’s sake - I no longer work for a hospital (not that I’d expect anyone here to know this, I didn’t make a big deal of my job change). Even if I did still work there, I couldn’t just “get the data” to do this analysis without formally submitting a proposal and putting it through ethics review.

@jcpjcp There is another problem with the analysis if I understand his claim correctly. His claim is that the null hypothesis is that given the fact that a person will die within a given period, the probability of him dying on any given day in that period is the same as the probability that he would die on any other day. Then he shows that actually people who were vaccinated were more likely to die early in the period between their vaccination date and an arbitrary end date.

The thing is, it’s claimed that vaccine efficacy actually increases over time for some weeks after vaccination. That means that a vaccinated person is much more likely to die of COVID a week after being vaccinated than 3 months after being vaccinated. Or at least, such is the claim of vaccination proponents. Thus, you would expect that vaccinated people would have a ratio less than 0.5.

This, of course, is probably a smaller effect than the problems that would arise from the data collection problems, but it is not a meritless objection.

Yep. It’s a basic attribution fallacy. I just left out some critical information.

Now if I wanted to grandstand and fear monger I could start claiming that on Twitter or what ever, and even provide legitimate documentation, dates, etc. Or maybe even issue a challenge for an eye grabbing amount, which obviously lends legitimacy to any claim, no matter how outlandish.

That’s a very handwavy argument. That isn’t how science works.

I thought COVID season ended at least a year or so back. Hell, I thought Ukraine season had already passed as well. I’m not sure what the Current Thing is, but can we discuss that?

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I’ve had tons of patients eagerly tell me they can’t wait for the next booster. COVID season is never ending haha.

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Exploding ants the size of cats. They’re attacking small towns through central South America right now and heading north.

They can suplex a motorcycle, and each one is equivalent to ¼ lb. of C4 when it goes off.

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Finally, something we can all agree is worth discussing.

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Its gonna get really interesting when they reach Bogota. You know how those vespids love their cocaine, right? Well just imagine a trillion coked up critters that won’t quit telling you about that one time, that one time you know? When that guy that looked like Paul Newman…

Then BOOM!

Of course it was China.

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Coincidentally this Kirsch guy popped up on one of my frequently visited websites today.

We just had a 10 year old kid drop dead of a heart attack playing basketball at nearby school. I’m no conspiracy theorist but I always wonder COVID vaccine status when I hear those stories now.

Edit: Actually, sudden cardiac arrest. He survived from what I’m hearing now.

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This has always been a regular occurrence…since the birth of basketball anyway.

That’s because you’re a conspiracy theorist. If a thought other than “Conspiracy theorist!” enters your mind when something not on the “3x5 index card of allowable opinion” is said, it’s too late to deny it.

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Obviously.

The thought of it makes me shudder.

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