Still too hard? Don’t you have gambling games with exponential growth? I remember losing a fuckload of money playing Texas Hold em or something the first time I played it.
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Yeah pretty much. Even in a perfect world you couldn’t instantly distribute 100 million doses. Which is really 50 million people, because it’s a 2x dose vaccine.
By the way, the UK managed to give the first vaccine shots YESTERDAY. And we still haven’t approved the vaccines officially…absolutely mangling anything resembling an efficient response. That’s something else entirely, which is literally costing lives as we speak because some fucking dipshit careerists at the FDA don’t want to work any harder. They can get fucking bent.
Anyway, the administration had a chance to reserve more doses months ago in summer, but they didn’t. And now we’re essentially stuck, even with the EO he signed to make domestic company distribution prioritize US citizens - because you can’t just magically triple manufacturing capabilities. Which is why they were asking MONTHS AGO. Which basically pisses me right off.
What should have happened was that they purchased at least 250-300 million doses from Pfizer, and a similar amount from Moderna, etc.
Is that expensive? Sure. But worth it because spending a few more billion dollars is INFINITELY CHEAPER than a struggling economy (measured in trillions) for 9 more months. This is also because you don’t know which company is going to make it to the finish line first with good data, so ensuring that whichever company would get done first gives us enough doses to punch a good size hole in this thing.
And the worst thing that happens is you end up with more doses than you need. Instead of, you know, NOT ENOUGH.
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Nice. Probably still some dumbasses going to say that it’s fake math though…
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I don’t know how to dumb it down further. I tried the wall painting and lily pad analogies one of my dimmer brothers but they didn’t work.
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The CCP came up with it while inventing mahjong in the 1800s.
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From a recent poll, half of adults in the U.S. say they would get the vaccine:
Is that enough?
To make a dent, yeah. I’d wager if places like tourist destinations and other in-demand locations wanted to require vaccination to book or get in it would be higher. And that way it’s the free market at work, nobody can blame the government (tongue in cheek).
It’d be great if we could get 100% of the country vaccinated…we could immediately go back to completely normal and not worry about things.
I can say with certainly we aren’t going to hit the mystical herd immunity level. My supervisor was in Missouri attending a family funeral and the majority there dont wear mask because the dont believe in Covid.
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Its going to be interesting if the FDA holds up on emergency approve over a few allergic reactions over in the UK…
Seriously basic math escapes certain people I know.I mean when you have to spend 5 minutes explaining numbers to someone comparing h1n1 vs covid. After which they still couldn’t grasp the concept…
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I’m looking into this (casually), but I don’t know why they would. If you need to give 4 billion doses of a vaccine worldwide, there are going to be allergic reactions. Even if there was picture perfect data on a sample pool of 60,000 that’s a far cry from 6,000,000,000. There’s no way to find an effect that small even with perfect data, and data is rarely perfect.
And if data is perfect, it usually means someone messed with it behind the curtains.
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Oh…I know they will approve it. But it would be a interesting what if…
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China claims an 86% efficiency. What do you think? Is this a good number when it comes to vaccines in general? I’m not educated in shit like this lol. I’m thinking you’d have to vaccinate an even larger percentage of the population to account for this to achieve herd immunity. Would this be accurate?
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Do you mean they literally don’t believe Covid exists or they’re just unafraid of the virus?
Both
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Great questions. I’ll take them one by one.
-
is 86% efficiency good for covid? Considering the incredibly rapid pace (vs 4 years for the next quickest developed vaccine) and pressure - global pandemic - that companies developed under… Yeah I think so. I don’t have access to their data so I can’t see how reliable it is and we’ll… CCP and all. But assuming it’s accurate and for the circumstances yes.
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is 86% good in general? More complicated question. Depends on many characteristics of the virus itself - how badass is it? What percentage of people does it kill or permanently maim/paralyze, etc. How easy to spread or catch is it (the R0) ? Can the vaccine also STOP your transmission of virus assuming you’re exposed or not, does it just protect you? (This is a question for covid as well). If it does not protect against infection, does the vaccine protect against all the worst outcomes - death/maiming/permanent disability? Does a person lose immunity over time? (A big one)
If a virus is deadly and the vaccine is only 50% effective at stopping infection, but 100% effective at stopping severe disease/disability/death… It’s still good. Let’s say the old seasonal flu caused severe, hospitalizing pneumonia in 25% of all people who caught it. If a vaccine guaranteed you wouldn’t have a 1 in 4 chance of being in a hospital, but only suffer a couple days of aches and nausea… I’d say it’s still effective. Same for the sinopharm vaccine - 86% effective is good, but if it’s 100% effective against hospitalization in those remaining 14%, then it’s a good deal.
The nastier the virus the more important to have a 100% protection rate in general, but especially against the worst effects.
The easier the virus is to spread, the more important a very high level of effectiveness for severe outcomes AND the more important it is for the vaccine to also protect a person from transmitting virus.
- Would you have to vaccinate more people to make up for 86% effectiveness and reach herd immunity? Probably not. Herd immunity depends on R0, so the higher R0 is the the bigger % of population needs to be vaccinated. And in any case the goal is always 100% vaccination lol.
In a perfect world, we would always want as close to 100% effective as we can get. But in a very rapidly spreading situation, anything is better than nothing PARTICULARLY if it’s really good keeping people from hospital stays.
A very important final note is that the vaccine depends on how fast the bug mutates, and how many strains of virus the shot protects against. That’s why the seasonal flu vaccine basically sucks. It mutates rapidly, you lose immunity over time, and the most widespread strains every year are basically a crapshoot when you only have time to develop a shot against a few of the possible ones. I.E. there is no “universal” flu vaccine that protects against all possible strains. One is in development though. Don’t know it’s status or potential.
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Much appreciated.
No problem!
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Ha! I think at this point our governor can’t show any sort of support for masks, lockdowns, etc. She’s based her entire reputation and career on showing that she doesn’t care about those things/find them necessary.
It’s fine that all of our hospitals are full and the small towns health centers are being shut down so employees can go help the overflowing ones in bigger towns. It’s fine we’re like the biggest hotspot in the world. No problem.
I believe she said something along the lines of she “trusts South Dakotans to make the right decisions for themselves”…meanwhile we voted to legalize weed and she’s using state money to overturn that decision. I’m not saying she can’t do that, but she sure picks and chooses when we’re mature enough to make decisions for ourselves.
(Oh yeah, and the last time we made international news was when our anti-meth campaign became a laughingstock. “Meth. We’re On It.” Yeah…tons of meth users shows how responsible and concerned about our health we all are.)
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To my ears that sounds like an actual 40% with a side of attacking the myelin sheathing of the central nervous system.
Because I don’t trust a damn thing they say.
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