Coronavirus - What Happened?

I posted a while ago a news story about how Sweden is going against almost everyone else and letting people not social distance

This story i just found now:

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Why is Fox news plastering their frontpage claiming a govt lab in Wuhan is responsible for leaking the virus
 but no other major news org has this as a headline? They better be right or that is some stupendously irresponsible journalism.

I’m seeing Fox say suspicion of virus leaked from Wuhan lab 
 same as NBC, NY post, bbc, etc etc

Maybe you could link to the story where fox is claiming they ARE responsible rather than suspicion?

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I’ve seen that story popping up in various news outlets lately. The claim seems to be that it wasn’t human-engineerred, but patient 0 was a worker in the lab. It seems equally speculative as saying it originated in a wet market.

Who the hell knows? Except some CCP members who are unlikely to be forthcoming.

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Yeah, that doesn’t compute at all. So, essentially anything lower than 99.9% isn’t valuable?

Unrelated question–where was your profile picture taken at?

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Yeah, I’m not sure how that helped them. But jury is still out since I don’t know enough of the local situation or sources for statistics/lit, so I suppose we’ll find out for sure down the road.

@punnyguy Abbot labs is a major player so I assume these are strong tests, although I don’t know of any validation on the reliability and accuracy available to the public. 20 million is a hyuge number though
I don’t know how they got the raw materials considering the tension on supply chain
 but good for them.

I would say this is probably not what happened, but I do understand that the intelligence agencies need to work on multiple hypotheses.

I am not a fan of the reporting on this for the very same reason that I wasn’t a fan of Trump’s comments on chloroquine–idiots are bound to take this to resurrect the “lab bioweapons” conspiracy theory, despite it being stated that is not a hypothesis.

@Aragorn It’s beyond hyuge, if that report is correct (might be a typo who knows), it’s 20 million tests per month.

If it wasn’t a 100% major company like Abbot, even I The Optimist would be skeptical lol:

The company announced that it expects to ship close to 1 million tests this week to hospitals and labs in the U.S, and will ship a total of 4 million tests in April. By June and beyond, Abbott will be shipping 20 million tests to the U.S. per month, according to the report.

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Damn. That’s good news for everyone.

One of the difficulties with many of the current testing kits (reverse PCR and others, not the Abbot antibody tests mentioned) is that the reagents are in short supply, and the chain is weak as well. Which obviously means that even if you have a 100% scalable manufacturing process you’re limited to what you can get in.

I’m glad the supply chain for these doesn’t seem as downtrodden as the diagnostic tests. We need all we can get.

That was in Rumney, NH.

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AND something you wouldn’t think about, @Aragorn
the specialized swabs that it takes to get legitimate samples.The manufacturers (I think there are like two?)
have their facilities going almost 24/7, and they can’t keep up.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-16/gilead-gains-as-stat-cites-early-covid-19-comments-in-chicago

Nice. I am unfortunately ignorant about rock climbing in NH. It looks like a crag I love in Arkansas. Horseshoe Canyon Ranch has a ton of great climbs in close proximity. Approaches generally less than 20 min on foot, less than 10 if you have the right tent site.

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True. Saw this earlier. Too small of a pool to be sure yet, but I hope more results come piling in.

That’s true. I didn’t think about them haha. If only I owned a manufacturing plant lol

I just checked Horseshoe out on Mountainproject. Looks awesome! I dig that there’s a lot of moderate stuff even if the grades are middle of the pack. On my “to-see” list for sure.

Rumney is awesome, it’s New Englands “playground” spot for sure. The crowds and approaches can be tough sometimes, and a lot of the moderate routes are graded pretty generously haha, but it can be the best place on earth on a good day imo.

To keep the thread Covid related, I was planning a trip out to Banff for a week of climbing with a couple kayaking/sightseeing rest days. Not sure how feasible that’s going to be now. Keeping an eye on flights because they’re a steal but who knows if this’ll level off in time.

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You really gotta do it. Go in spring or fall, because summer humidity is murder. Not sure what your lead grade is but the Titanic Boulder has just an incredibly classic arĂȘte route called “Cradle of The Deep”.

The thing about moderate routes is that they can be tons of fun and you can climb all day on them. Great for a good solid weekend of volume, even if you’re not finding or sending any projects. Will say that climbing there tends to be minimum crack, a bit juggier and less sloper heavy, but you can’t deny 300 routes within 20 minutes walk. The “goat cave” has some cool boulder problems, great roof problem.

Crowds aren’t terrible, although I’m lucky because I started there in the very early 2000s and there was pretty much NOBODY there, canyon all to yourself and maybe 3 other groups. It’s gotten much more popular (deservedly so) in the last 10 years
but I’m sad about it lol.

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We also count deaths a bit differently than other countries which skew the numbers.

For instance, we include deaths in elder care in our figures and not all other countries do. Not defending/attacking the approach, just providing some nuance for the numbers.

The “green” (?) are the deaths from the elder care (about a third),

And this is a bit old now, but it seems to be playing out okay,

but I acknowledge sharing that graph cuts both ways. As a corollary from my first paragraph, not all nations are tallying up deaths in the same way and thus it follows that comparing numbers between nations is a bit iffy.

Our numbers also include people that have died, with confirmed covid-19, even if that wasn’t the main cause of death. I don’t remember how much lag time we allowed, there is just too much browsing history to go through for me to find it quickly, but I remember it being quite substantial. I.e., if a person has and recovers from covid-19 if they die within (I believe it was) a month then they’ll be included in the covid-19 stats.

I’m just sharing this to share some background into what the make-up is behind our statistics.

Personally, I believe it’s not inherently meaningful to compare between nations as there are too many differences. Not only because countries are in different phases of the spread, but also because it’s really difficult for the numbers to actually convey anything meaningful. Looking at our Scandinavian neighbours for instance, there is quite a marked difference in population size and how much surface area that population is distributed across. I’d even go so far as to say that I think it’s really hard to talk about our nation as a whole as there is an immense disrepancy between the north and south parts of the land with regards to population movement and density.

It’s tough even to compare cities, such as Gothenburg and Stockholm. The former is a city wherein people tend to drive themselves to work, thus reducing the spread while the latter relies more heavily on public transportation which encourages the spread (at least initially, pictures now from transportation centers depict an unprecedented emptiness). How is one to evaluate the efficacy of measures in an absolute sense and not just highly heuristically when those are the realities at play? (Not looking for an answer, I just tend to express myself by formulating things as questions)

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This is a more complete explanation. Your response suggests you are not acquainted with the idea of “veil of ignorance”.

There are MORE more Bangladeshis confirmed to be positive with the virus in Singapore(pop. 5.7 million) than in Bangladesh(pop. 220 million).

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