With this talk of TCU v Texas you guys must have psychic powers. Randy Galloway wrote an article about this in yesterday’s Startlegram. If he were a member of the T-Nation he’d buy you all a round of Jose Cuervo. My focus is on UNLV. It’s homecoming, should I wear a mum?
This week’s Best Idea I’ve Ever Had is a state championship game in the sport of football.
No human polls allowed. No computer geeks accepted.
Forget the “Big” 12. Nobody cares. Bunch of mutts, except for the University of Texas, particularly once the people up north lost Sam.
The Mountain West? I’m not dismissing what Utah did to that Alabama outfit last January, but otherwiseâ??..
Let’s talk about what really matters.
Longhorns vs. TCU. And the best football team in Texas isâ??..
“C’mon,” declared my man Clarence, noted UT defender and the whine-king when it comes to being a Whiney Orange, “you know that TCU doesn’t play anybody.”
My reply: Silence, with a grin, waiting on reality to smack Clarence upside the head.
“Wellâ??..” he added. “we playedâ??.. uh, Oklahoma.”
Yeah, except without Sam, and even then, Colt McCoy had to be the star of the game. On defense.
The Longhorns’ schedule has been so bad that in the B.S. that is the BCS, the computers, which lean heavily to strength of schedule, ranked the Horned Frogs ahead of UT this week.
Not that I’m exactly pushing that as a TCU bonus. Those same computers rank Iowa as the best team in the country, proving again that the country has no best college team.
The Frogs’ defense vs. Colt and his offense. Forget a press pass. I’d pay Boss Hawg Bowl prices to watch Colt leave on a cart.
The Frogs and the Longhorns â?? bring it up to any Whiney Orange these days and they move on in a hurry. No contest, they say. We’re after a national championship, they say. Yeah, sure.
But no contest?
Well, the boys in Vegas couldn’t care less about BCS polls, human or Dell. In Las Vegas, they just do numbers, known as point spreads.
What the large Vegas hotel sports books don’t necessarily like to do is volunteer a number on hypothetical matchups. But if you know the right peopleâ??..
Three Vegas oddsmakers were asked this question this week:
If TCU played Texas on Saturday at a neutral site, what would your point spread be?
One said he wanted to look at some information, and would get back. He did, with this:
Texas, a four-point favorite.
The second guy said he’d go off the top his head and make Texas a six-point favorite.
Split the difference and it’s Texas a five-point favorite. Consider that the Longhorns are playing Saturday at Oklahoma State â?? now the second-best team in the Big 12, if there is such a thing as second best â?? and Texas is a 9 1/2 -point road favorite.
Even with Sam Bradford starting for Oklahoma two weeks ago, Texas kicked off as a 3 1/2 -point favorite.
By those Vegas opinions, Texas and TCU are very evenly matched. Wouldn’t want to say told-you-soâ??..
But wait. Better news for Clarence and the Whineys came from Jay Rude, head of the massive MGM Mirage sports books in Vegas.
Rude, the only one of the three who didn’t mind his name being used, would handicap such a game this way:
Texas as a 10-point favorite.
“That doesn’t mean TCU couldn’t win, because it could,” said Rude. “But to me, based on all factors, that’s the number that would accomplish what we want.”
What Vegas wants is two-way action. Both teams being bet. A point spread provides the rest of us â?? I don’t bet anything two-legged, but I study the football lines closely every week â?? with what the talent differences are considered to be between two opponents.
Also vital for Vegas, however, is the betting line bringing close to equal money bets on both sides.
“Just my opinion, but if I put the number up as a four or six [Texas being favored], there’d be all Texas money. So I’d go 10, and then let the public decide. I know at 10, I’ll get plenty of TCU money (like mine, in a rare two-legged wager). Actually, I think it’d be a real good game, no matter the number.”
Rude mentioned that handicapping football, college and pro, has been tough for Vegas all season. “The top teams in college are all offensively challenged, even Florida,” he said.
“Alabama can’t score. Texas, until last week, was struggling against the decent opponents. And Iowa? What is that?”
Then there’s the NFL. “Parity is gone,” he said. “We’re taking a beating because the bad teams are real bad. The public isn’t afraid to give a lot of points when the bad ones are playing the good ones. We can’t seem to make the bad ones a big enough dog. No matter the amount of points given, the public bets the favorite in those good vs. bad situations.”
One more thing, this volunteered by Rude:
“If TCU plays Iowa in a bowl game, right now TCU would be the favorite, at least by me.”
That’s the same Iowa (fourth) that’s currently two spots ahead of the Frogs (sixth) in the BCS rankings.
But me? All that stuff is elementary. I’m still working on that Texas-TCU game for the state championship.
It’s the Best Idea I’ve Ever Had, at least for this week.
Randy Galloway can be heard 3-6 p.m. weekdays on Galloway & Co. on ESPN/103.3 FM.