[quote]lixy wrote:
I have no doubt about that. Sadly, the will of the people is all but represented nowadays…
However, our fear is that it would be anything but peaceful.
Well, I don’t think it could get any messier than it is already.
We could probably live with the brutality that they would inflict on themselves, although it would be catastrophic in scale and a human rights nightmare.
I don’t see what you mean. From my standpoint, there’s already a catastrophe of epic proportions going on. Look at the occupied territories and tell me that it’s not a “human right’s nightmare”.
What is not going to be accepted is when their violence spills over into our world. And I think it is certain that it would.
Good point. Trouble in the ME means bad news for oil-addicts.
That said, none of the countries in the ME have any chance of threatening the sovereignty of the US.
Again, I would really like to hear your thoughts on what would transpire if we pulled our forces out of Iraq and the middle east in general.
If you pull out of Iraq (which I speculate is not ever gonna happen), the massive political blocks that are currently boycotting elections are gonna completely reshuffle the current situation. Parliament is almost assured to be predominently Shi’a, and obviously won’t like the idea of an Iraq pimping out to the West. The net result will be a natural alliance between the Shi’ites in the region. Saudis won’t like that one bit since it’ll give Saudi Shi’ites ideas. The Kurds in the north will continue their struggle to gain an independent state, and Turkey will severly frown on their actions as they might incite Turkish Kurds to do the same.
At the end of the day, I predict Shi’ites and Sunnis will get along just fine (Tikrit will be an exception for a while, but they will ultimately resign to living like everyone else). Kurds are very likely to get their own state, and I don’t see why the rest of the country - if properly represented in government - having a problem with that.
That’s for the mess that is modern day Iraq.
As for the ME in general, it all depends. If you mean that you won’t be sending billions of dollars of weapons to Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and your other buddies, then I guess Iran will start weighting in on issues more assertively. If you keep giving away bombs like candy, I don’t see anything changing in the medium term.
Now, if the Ayatollah was just blowing smoke with his “no-military-nukes” fatwa, we might actually see a quite stable ME arising. I hate all sorts of WMDs, but I have to admit that a nuke arsenal totally changes the power balance. Israel and Pakistan will not be the only big dogs anymore, and everyone will start considering what Tehran has to say. Of course, with Turkey in the EU, Ankara will benefit from the considerable of the union, and ultimately, will have to clean up its act regarding human rights (that is, if they wanna have a chance at full membership).
The Chinese will very likely become best buddies with Afghanistan. Sooner or later after the US withdraws their support, the house of the Al-Saud will fall to be replaced by more democratic institutions.
All in all, with nuke deterrence, people will be forced to tolerate each other.
But, the Israelo-Palestinian conflict will go on. No matter how much pressure is put by the international community, Israel will never budge an inch from the position it has sacrificed so much for (yeah, you read that right!).
Both the Israelis and the Palestinians will continue in their spiral of radicalization; Israel’s government will become even more right-extremists, and Palestinians will never stop resisting and will continue voting for people who promise change.
The biggest loser in all this will be the USA and its oil companies. And once you look at the money made in the region by those, you’ll automatically realize that everything I said is pure fiction. The US will never leave. I’ll go as far as say that, if Ron Paul is elected president, a coup will be staged.[/quote]
Thanks for the response Lixy.
I don’t really have a good understanding of Middle Eastern culture and politics so its good to at least hear your perspective.
One thing I would point out is that I agree that the current situation is already a human rights nightmare. Some of it caused by our presence there. Much of it inflicted on the Middle Eastern people by their own governments and peoples.
However, I believe it would get exponentially worse if we left. The different ethnic groups are already slaughtering each other, even with a common enemy there (the U.S.)
As far as our dependence on Middle Eastern Oil. Yes, that is sad and is causing our country a lot of unnecessary problems. Believe me, there is a growing awareness that it is a poison to our society. Hopefully, our dependence will end sometime in the future. First, on Middle Eastern Oil, then on oil on general.
However, if the world’s dependence on oil ever abates, the Middle East will be in dire straights. It seems to me that their entire economies would collapse w/o oil revenues.
Again, thank you for your response.