[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]ZEB wrote:
The only way a republican gets elected is if that republican can stir the base to get out and vote. [/quote]
I tend to disagree, based purely on numbers.
Look at it like this. Assume this link is right for sake of argument. Voting Turnout Statistics - Statistic Brain and assume similar results in 2016, rounded up for sake of argument. 130m voters.
Well we all know 90% are already decided as they are letter voters. 45% for either side. That’s 117m people off the top, split even between the parties. That leaves just 13m people tops left to vote who aren’t already locked into whatever candidate their party tossed up.
That means, either party only needs to woo 7,500,001 people from the “middle”. (Of which I’m convinced doesn’t exist. I’d say 99.9% of “independents” are pissed off partisans that still aren’t going to vote for one of the two parties.)
Now add in the electoral college and narrow it down to swing states and suddenly you’re looking at hundreds (if not tens) of thousands of people swinging an entire election.
So why do I disagree with you, because based on the above you would still be right?
Well… Effective ground games. Democrats tend to live in higher population areas and republicans in lower. The “get out the vote” drives (assume equal fraud on both sides here, because only a fucking moron thinks people spend billions of dollars to win an election and there isn’t fraud. It’d be the first time in human history this much money was involved and there was “zero voter fraud” because of human’s good nature.) are a huge win for the D’s.
Because riled up Base in AZ of TX does jack and shit as those states are already wrapped up. Riled up base in MA and CA does jack and shit because those states would be blue if Hitler was running on the D ticket. It literally comes down to turnout in a handful of states.
The key to winning is a) have the POTUS before you be god awful or decline to run and b) get the extra couple hundred thousand votes in swing states. ANd the R’s have a built in disadvantage (outside of their politics) in relation to b to the Democrats.
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All good points my friend.
However, a President is not elected by the popular vote, as Al Gore found out back in 2000. They are elected (as you know) by the electoral vote. So a state wide strategy is far more important than simply counting up numbers for D’s an R’s. More on this later…
Also, this time around there are a few things that must be accounted for. The first is that should Hillary be the nominee I don’t believe that she will excite her base to turn out for her which changes everything. For example, she polls well with minorities. But, will minorities vote at the same numbers as they did for Obama in 2012 (much less 2008?) Most assuredly not. You may be thinking that she will certainly pull women, but not so fast. Only 23% of all women claim to be feminists. This is her greatest and most loyal group. They will march through hell to cast a vote for Hillary. But, what about the other 77%? Will they be even near as loyal? According to the polls the answer is no. In fact, there is a chance that while she will win the female vote it will not nearly be in the numbers she needs to pull off a Presidential victory. If the republicans are smart enough to give female voters a good alternative such as Rubio (yes its because of his looks-sorry ladies but you more so than men vote on looks), or Carly Fiorina the republicans will win enough female voters to prevent a democratic victory. In the case of Fiorina there is a chance that for the first time since 1988 the republicans could actually win the female vote (that could happen with Rubio).
Back to the electoral vote which is all that really matters. As I have been saying if you have a Rubio/Kasich ticket that gives a large advantage to the republicans. The last time both Ohio and Florida were won by a republican that republican won the White House…and the time before that and the time before that etc. That isn’t to say that we must have a representative from each state on the ticket to win those states, but it sure doesn’t hurt does it?
For example, Romney/Ryan lost Florida by just a tad less than 1%, and lost Ohio by only 1.9%. Neither were from either of those two important states, yet almost pulled off victories in both. Therefore, I feel that there are several winning combinations of candidates that could potentially pull it off as well.
For example, a Rubio/Fiorina ticket would pick up enough women and also win Florida probably Ohio as well and many other important voting blocks to pull off the win, such as the Hispanic vote because of Rubio’s background. The same goes for a Fiorina/Rubio ticket.
There are many combinations that would have a good chance to win based upon the electoral college and the various demographic groups that they would pull. Granted you and I may not like one or either candidate, but that is not the topic of discussion:
Fiorina/Cruz could be a winner, or the reverse Cruz/Fiorina as well. Rubio/Cruz another winner. We could even go more moderate and win. Fiorina/Bush, or Bush/Fiorina. How about Trump/Rubio? I know you hate Trump but the very powerful senior citizen demographic, the group that turns out more voters than any other group seems to love Trump. Rubio/Christie is, I believe another winning ticket. Maybe Cruz/Kasich as well. Another winning combination is Rubio/Walker and with Walker the republicans pick the important state of Wisconsin as well. The list is almost endless of the possible winning combinations that the republicans are able to offer this time around. The good part is that most of the potential VP candidates will have instant name recognition by running for President and the many debates.
Contrast all of that with Hillary’s up hill battle. Let’s say she pulls it off stays out of jail and is the nominee. Who will be her VP pick? Bernie? Highly doubtful. That means that the 20 something lazy, brainless followers of Bernie Sanders will stay home in droves. If Hillary doesn’t stay out of jail and the Joe the gaffe machine himself is the nominee how do you think he will do in a race vs. the republican nominee? He was a Senator from Delaware (won’t help) in addition to that he is immediately hung with all of Obama’s mistakes and poor decisions both domestic and abroad. He will be standing toe to toe with the republican on a debate stage defending Obama! I can’t think of a worse scenario for the democrats (67% of the people feel that Obama has led the country in the wrong direction) Lastly, do you honestly think Bernie Sanders would even come close to winning the Presidency? Can you see him on a stage debating any of the top republicans? An old bent over Socialist who looks like Orville Redenbocker the popcorn king…LOL. As I have said before if he is the nominee it will be landslide time for the republicans!
Okay Beans I know I will never convince you that this is going to be a republican year. You are going to have to see it for yourself. But just remember where you heard it and who you heard it from!
Zeb