[quote]Dr.Matt581 wrote:
[quote]Tex Ag wrote:
[quote]Dr.Matt581 wrote:
[quote]TigerTime wrote:
Actually, most of these statistics are gathered from victim interviews, in order to control for police bias.
We arenāt talking about blacks committing 10% more homicides for their population, theyāre committing 52% of total homicides. That much of a discrepancy cannot be brushed off as racial profiling. [/quote]
Damn it, I told myself I was done posting in this thread, and then I read this. Now, I have a low opinion of statistics as a mathematical discipline in general, and it is practically useless in many cases. Crime statistics is one of those cases. There are way too many unknowns to possibly be able. The only thing that those statistics have to go on is conviction rates. Think of all the unsolved murders in this country alone. Think about all the wrongful convictions that we do not know about. Think of all the missing people and others who may have been murdered but we donāt know because no bodies have been found. There is no real and reliable way of accounting for these unknowns. The only real piece of knowledge we can get from these statistics is that 52% of murder convictions are against black people.
Oh, and I agree with whoever said that genetic predisposition to crime based on race is a load of crap. There could, however be a cultural factor here but I donāt really know. I majored in physics, not African American studies, so I donāt really know much about African American culture except what I see in movies and television.[/quote]
I.got sucked back in as well. Have you ever looked.into complexity theory?[/quote]
I am familiar with Chaos Theory, which is very similar, and I think it could be a much better tool for determining a predisposition to criminal behavior than statistics. It is not used much in physics for a variety of reasons, but it should be great for things that have a lot of unknown/unmeasurable variables like predicting human behavior. I think this is what you are referring to anyway, if it isnāt please educate me.
For those not familiar with Chaos Theory, the basic premise is this: in certain systems that are highly dependent upon initial conditions (such as human behavior), even a small change in those initial conditions can have massive effects on the later outcome of a series of events, leading to what seems like chaotic behavior, even though in reality the events are deterministic. This is known as the Butterfly Effect. Chaos Theory postulates that identifying and accounting for these initial conditions can lead to a better (not perfect) way of determining/predicting certain events. It could be very useful in predicting human behavior, such as probability of committing a crime. I know there is some very promising research using Chaos Theory models to predict when seizures will occur in epilepsy patients.
Fun fact for anyone who cares, the term Butterfly Effect originates with the the 1952 short story A Sound of Thunder, NOT the shitty ass Ashton Kutcher movie.
EDIT: By initial conditions I donāt mean BS like racially based genetic predisposition, I mean things like living in poverty, having abusive parents, hanging out with the wrong crowd, etc.
[/quote]
Complexity theory differs quite a bit, less about predicting a particular outcome, deals.more in possibilities, but I think the most interesting aspect is the idea of emergent properties. This when, considering the system is actually complex and not just complicated (insert math stuff here) is when properties not expect given the constituent actors in the system, develop at different scales of the systems. It is, in many ways, trying to understand where and when the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Itās tricky, especially philosophicly, when it is not so much about prediction and often is about what we do not understand. People usually do not pay people for this type of answer.
I brought it up as a possible topic for a thread to keep us out of this one. I do not get to discuss it often and thought you might be game.