If you quote their entire post and there’s no post between the one you’re quoting and the response it strips out the quote. (Don’t quote the whole thing minus the last period… That totally doesn’t work).
Ah I see. Basically it doesn’t think you need to quote the whole post if you’re replying directly afterwards.
The more you know…
The big question is whether Trump can hold the Rustbelt states he took last time to not throw him out. He needs at least one.
He probably has an edge in Florida, a semi-decent chance of taking Nevada and Minnesota could go either way.
I reckon Michigan was a fluke that won’t repeat.
Pennsylvania as well. Although manufacturing employment and oil/gas jobs are up if urban Philadelphia and Pittsburgh mobilize then the rest of the state doesn’t matter.
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Then that gives Trump a very narrow path to victory. Perhaps an impossible one.
Although Trump is the elephant in every room, curious as to if many who have benefitted just can’t pull the Republican lever.
There are plenty of church going minorities that are working, against open borders, against abortion and homosexuality being rammed down their throats. Yet will pull a straight Dem ticket time after time because… who knows?
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Because some issues are closer to home than others.
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If we’re being honest, the reverse scenario is probably far more likely. Take away religion and guns and my entire family doesn’t make sense as GOP voters on paper.
MAYBE minorities are enough to make some of them vote red in that scenario, but most of them definitely would be going blue.
Can you give a couple of examples?
As l have stated, other than abortion, my parents absolutely voice every GOP plank and then vote and contribute straight Dem. Virtual dictionary entries as yellow dog dems.
Well most of them (save a few from my generation) are living on public assistance, and have since I knew what the concept was.
My grandpa was a union leader at the factory he worked at for 20+ years and believes strongly in being allowed to unionize for collective bargaining rights.
They’re almost all LOW income, and most of them that still claim their children on their taxes saw a net reduction from the tax change.
They don’t believe in permanently escalating military spending (not a lot of vets in my family).
They were mostly alive during the cold war and the recent blowing of Putin genuinely upsets a number of them
Edit: this is more orange man specific, but good God do they hate the trade war.
I think your view is myopic. And polls tend to happen in a vacuum. They are usually phone polls and have 1000 or fewer participants. So, you have a demographic who is willing to answer strange numbers and take phone polls.
It would help if you would quote me so I don’t have to find what post you’re referring to.
Actually polls are pretty damn good. Nate Silver used them to essentially ace every winner for a long time at even the state level. The results of 2016 don’t change anything to people who understand how polls work. I think Nate’s model gave Trump about a 40% chance of winning. State polling sometimes is fairly lacking and many of the states were close and Trump was eclipsed easily in total votes.
But how do you think we should analyze things? Am I to believe Trump is carrying a 75 percent approval rating? Also phones aren’t the only thing being used today. And you don’t look at one poll you look at the collection of them and analyze the trends per time.
Of course polls aren’t perfect. If you have a better way than polling to figure out what people think please share it.
I do. The official Trump GOP platform’s version. Text message is actually used more than phones calls these days (may be wrong, don’t quote me).
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That’s actually not a bad idea, it just can’t be a link to a survey, the survey has to be on the text. Otherwise I don’t think it would be much different than phone surveys.
I don’t see the polls being terribly reliable. If the election were held today, I believe Trump would win hands down, despite polls showing that one on one per candidate he would lose.
How to make it better is the $64k question. You have to reach more people of more variety to see.
Of course, people like to fuck with pollsters too. I know somebody, who did get a call and didn’t ignore it, that they were voting for Jefferson Davis. He was just trying to be funny, it wasn’t serious he was just messing with them.
This is a feeling you have not backed by anything though. Polls aren’t perfect but they give us something tangible. As much as people want to point out 2016 as how flawed polls are we can also remember 2012. On this site the vast majority of people were predicting a Romney win despite the polls showing Obama as a favorite and we know what happened.
From what we have to gauge these things the fact remains that Trump is the least popular President since consistent polling has existed (and by a substantial margin). That doesn’t necessarily mean he loses however. What it means is that you can’t find anything out there right now data wise to suggest a win:
It’s always possible Trump will suffer from overexposure.
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I doubt that would be feasible. Poll questions are far too long to bomb someone with 8 texts worth of verbiage and expect a response.
All of Trump’s text polls have been links to his site thus far that I’m aware of. They’re utter jokes, and the 2 statisticians in my department really just use them to laugh together, but I’m sure the concept is being correctly used elsewhere
It’s also worth noting that in the modern era polls have been right much more often than wrong. I’ve already mentioned the problems with saying “polls suck remember 2016!”
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That’s true, however polls this far out are pretty bad. It’s a bad trend for Trump, for sure, but until the field is 1v1, anyone taking much from them is jumping the gun.
We are over a year out, which is a political millennia.