[quote]BPCorso wrote:
This thread blew up since the last time I checked it out. I didn’t read it all because it looks like a lot of it was not about Iraq, so forgive me if I’m rehashing old points.
To me it looks like the situation is getting clearer. Almost everyone is against ISIS except portions of marginalized Iraqi Sunnis. Even Saudi Arabia (and the other gulf arab states) and Turkey are against ISIS, realizing their expansion is not good for anyone. This could be the first time in history the USA, Gulf Arabs, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran all work together to solve a serious problem. It would be unprecedented. By “working together” I don’t mean joint military action, I just mean dialogue and sharing information.
The biggest hurdle in my opinion is for the USA to figure out how to settle this while gaining support from Iraqi Sunnis. That probably means getting rid of Maliki so that the Iraqi Sunnis have reason to fully abandon ISIS support. Replacing Maliki will probably require some top secret dialogue between Iran and the USA, but it seems doable.
My opinion is a partitioning of the country into three separate states is not feasible. I highly doubt the Sunnis will peacefully take the land in the West while the Kurds and Shias enjoy vast natural resources in the North and East. Or maybe the Sunni lands join Jordan. I think the best outcome is for unity from the USA and the major regional players to agree that ISIS is bad (already done) and to agree on a new government structure. The best may be for the three ethnic groups in Iraq to have their own semi-autonomous governments with a centralized government that would dole out revenue sharing from natural resource wealth. That could work.[/quote]
Will never work. You have tribes and factions with the Sunnis that hate each other. You are giving rational solutions to an unrational people.
