Recently i’ve been hearing a lot of negativity towards America on various message boards regarding social welfare, health insurance, greed, corporate wrong doings, the War, gas prices, retirement etc…
Was wondering what the opinions of various T-Nation members are. Just seems like the majority believe this country is heading into a downward spiral and is gonna screw us/our kids all over. Thoughts?
Anyone who wants to understand the Fate of America should study the fates of the great civilizations that preceded it.
You can do no better than reading A Study of History by Arnold Toynbee, which paralleled the rise and fall of twenty-three civilizations.
According to Toynbee, all civilizations arise in response to some extremely difficult set of challenges, when “creative minorities” inspire unprecedented effort to solve the problems faced by the society. These challenges may be physical, as when the Minoans conquered the sea; or social, as when Athens reacted to the Persian onslaught.
The cycle of civilization comprises two major phases: a “universal state”, such as the Roman Empire, that arises out of a time of troubles; and an “interregnum” dominated by a higher religion and a “Volkerwanderung” (migration) of barbarians in a heroic age.
Breakdown of a great civilization occurs in three stage: 1) a failure of creative power in the creative minority; 2) the withdrawal of allegiance to the ruling minority on the part of the majority; and 3) the consequent loss of social unity.
It should not tax one’s imagination too much to fit American history into this framework, and make predictions accordingly.
Another good text, which I recommend all the time, is The Fates of Nations by Paul Colinvaux. Professor Colinvaux is an ecologist who formulated a biological theory of history. Like Toynbee, he concluded that all great civilizations rise and fall according to predictable patterns, but his thesis has overpopulation as the driving force behind the progressions, rather than moral strength and creativity, or their lack.
Colinvaux wrote his book back in the 80s, but many of his predictions have already come to pass.
As for my own opinion, I believe that the United States will become increasingly fragmented politically and racially, will experience increasingly heavy-handed federal administrations which will attempt to keep order by the use of increasingly brutal paramilitary police force, and will eventually split into three or more separate nations, with Civil War a not-unlikely event. I believe that all this will happen in this century.
P.S. I’m an optimist.
I don’t believe all the negativity about America. I still think that America is a great country to live in, and will be for a long time to come.
I don’t understand all this talk about “empires”. I just don’t see the comparison to America and ancient Rome. I know people like to make the comparison in an effort to sound scholarly, or intelligent, but personally I just don’t see how it is possible to compare the two.
I don’t think that America is going to sink, fall, crumble, cave in, etc… I think that this country produces some of the greatest minds in the world, and that there are people who truly care about this country and are working on ways to make it even greater.
I don’t like unnecessary and negative criticism about America. I don’t like how people call this a country full of idiots. I don’t like it when people have nothing positive to say about America, when there is plenty of positive things to say.
I really don’t think that we are headed toward this ridiculous “police state”. Maybe a “nanny state”, but not a police state. I think it is naive to think any differently.
I hope you’re right, Skaz.
Maybe America will manage to be the one exception to the rule stretching back over five thousand years.
As a patriot, I’d like to think so. As a realist and student of history, I think maybe not.
I wonder, though, whether your inability to see any parallels between America and any preceding civilizations stems from chauvinism, or from historical myopia.
I am 41 years old. I have been hearing the same old doom and gloom bullshit as long as I can remember.
America isn’t falling apart but some of the rest of the world is catching up.
Interestingly enough, the following document was found in a sealed antechamber in southern Italy, believed to be written by a 2nd Century laborer in response to various critics predicting the “decline” of the Empire:
[i]I don’t believe all the negativity about Rome. I still think that Rome is a great empire to live in, and will be for a long time to come.
I don’t understand all this talk about “despotisms”. I just don’t see the comparison to Rome and ancient Persia. I know people like to make the comparison in an effort to sound scholarly, or intelligent, but personally I just don’t see how it is possible to compare the two.
I don’t think that Rome is going to sink, fall, crumble, cave in, etc… I think that this empire produces some of the greatest minds in the world, and that there are people who truly care about this empire and are working on ways to make it even greater.
I don’t like unnecessary and negative criticism about Rome. I don’t like how people call this an empire full of idiots. I don’t like it when people have nothing positive to say about Rome, when there is plenty of positive things to say.
I really don’t think that we are headed toward this ridiculous “police state”. Maybe a “nanny state”, but not a police state. I think it is naive to think any differently.[/i]
Sorry, Skaz, Just havin’ fun.
Three questions, Zap:
Is “as long as I can remember” really a sufficient amount of time to track the development of a great civilization?
Has all of the “doom and gloom bullshit” really turned out to be false?
Is America really a better country now than it was when you were a kid?
[quote]Varqanir wrote:
Three questions, Zap:
Is “as long as I can remember” really a sufficient amount of time to track the development of a great civilization?
[/quote]
Yes (j/k)
Yes. We didn’t get nuked. We didn’t lose to the great Soviet Army. We all didn’t get cancer. The economy didn’t collapse and on and on.
[quote]
Is America really a better country now than it was when you were a kid?[/quote]
Yes. We have been through some rough times and we will continue to be through rough times but we are better than ever.
Do you really think America was a better country in the 1850’s? 1860’s? 1930’s? 1940’s? 1950’s? 1970’s? We have had a couple pretty good decades and we are having an economic downturn but we will pull out of it soon enough.
Comparing empires to the USA is a challenge, because the leaders here, ostensibly, function at the will of the people, not at the will of the Praetorian Guard.
That being said, countries and empires do fall because they lose common cause with the leadership. When the central government and the corresponding elite simply abuse the majority of the people, that society is done.
Very few would willingly fight for Nero. Very few willingly fought to keep the Soviet Union going.
So, when you see politicians promise ‘change’ and then don’t deliver, when you see them trump up a ‘Contract with America’ and then simply spend like crazy and laugh off term limits, there are consequences. The people are losing common cause with the government.
If you see Barack get swept in, and then he turns out to be just another scammer, that’ll probably be the final warning signal.
[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
We have been through some rough times and we will continue to be through rough times but we are better than ever.
Do you really think America was a better country in the 1850’s? 1860’s? 1930’s? 1940’s? 1950’s? 1970’s? We have had a couple pretty good decades and we are having an economic downturn but we will pull out of it soon enough.
[/quote]
Note that when I say “better” I don’t mean better off economically or more powerful militarily, but rather better qualitatively and morally. Are we, as a nation, better educated and informed now as opposed to forty years ago? Are we healthier? Are our laws more just, our leaders more honest? Our cities cleaner and safer? Our rights and freedoms as American citizens more plentiful and secure than ever before?
Yes?
Really?
[quote]skaz05 wrote:
I don’t understand all this talk about “empires”. I just don’t see the comparison to America and ancient Rome. I know people like to make the comparison in an effort to sound scholarly, or intelligent, but personally I just don’t see how it is possible to compare the two.
[/quote]
Anti-intellectualism in American culture stems from the fact that very few people can determine whether something is legitimately “intellectual” or not. The common arrogant response is to dismiss the ideas as useless because you cannot enter the dialogue in any meaningful way.
A bit of trivia for you, Headhunter:
The Roman Empire still referred to itself as a republic, rather than an empire, for a long, long time after the republican constitution became void.
I imagine that the American Empire will still be referred to as both a “democracy” and a “republic” long after our own constitution is ruled obsolete, for at least as long as the Democratic and Republican parties are still around.
[quote]Varqanir wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
We have been through some rough times and we will continue to be through rough times but we are better than ever.
Do you really think America was a better country in the 1850’s? 1860’s? 1930’s? 1940’s? 1950’s? 1970’s? We have had a couple pretty good decades and we are having an economic downturn but we will pull out of it soon enough.
Note that when I say “better” I don’t mean better off economically or more powerful militarily, but rather better qualitatively and morally. Are we, as a nation, better educated and informed now as opposed to forty years ago? [/quote]
Absolutely. Just because a few fools can’t tell Montana from Mexico doesn’t change this. We know more now that ever. No question.
I think we live longer and we certainly diagnose illnesses we didn’t even know about 40 years ago so I am not sure what the statistics say. I am damned glad I had my ACL fixed in this decade and not in the 1960’s!
More honest than Nixon and LBJ?
They are way bigger so it is hard to make the comparison. The neighborhood I live in now is safer and cleaner than the neighborhood I lived in when we left the city ~ 37 years ago.
Of course. Ask a black man, hispanic woman or gay man from the 50’s or 60’s (eighteen or nineteen) about their rights.
The level of corruption and number of crooked sheriffs back in the day was staggering.
Even Clinton didn’t grab our guns as the doom and gloomers predicted and most of his egregious acts were rolled back.
[quote]
Yes?
Really?[/quote]
Really.
Well, okay, Zap. I see you’re more of an optimist than I am.
Like I said to Skaz, I hope you’re right, and that America continues being the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave right up to Judgement Day and beyond.
But if it’s all the same to you, I’ll keep my pistol handy, just in case.
[quote]Varqanir wrote:
Well, okay, Zap. I see you’re more of an optimist than I am.
Like I said to Skaz, I hope you’re right, and that America continues being the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave right up to Judgement Day and beyond.
But if it’s all the same to you, I’ll keep my pistol handy, just in case.[/quote]
Keeping it handy is part of keeping it free. We have to work everyday to keep our good life. Always have and I think we always will.
[quote]omni wrote:
skaz05 wrote:
I don’t understand all this talk about “empires”. I just don’t see the comparison to America and ancient Rome. I know people like to make the comparison in an effort to sound scholarly, or intelligent, but personally I just don’t see how it is possible to compare the two.
Anti-intellectualism in American culture stems from the fact that very few people can determine whether something is legitimately “intellectual” or not. The common arrogant response is to dismiss the ideas as useless because you cannot enter the dialogue in any meaningful way. [/quote]
O.K. then, America is not Ancient Rome. Comparing modern day America to Ancient Rome is silly in my opinion. I am not being arrogant, I am stating my opinion. I think it is useless to compare modern day America to Ancient Rome.
I don’t see what you see. I don’t see a meaningful or logical comparison. You seem to want to compare the two at face value. I don’t think we can make meaningful comparisons this way.
I am sorry if you feel the need to call me an idiot, or stupid, or arrogant, or anti-intellectual (whatever that means), because I don’t clearly see a meaningful comparison to Ancient Rome, and modern day America.
If I hurt your feelings, then I am sorry… Please accept my most humblest apologies Mr. stranger on the internet…
Just an idea of how bad spending has gotten.
Our own GAO predicts that in 2040 we could be left with with doing the following in order to balance the budget:
-Raising Federal Taxes twice their present level
-Cutting spending by 60%
[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
I am 41 years old. I have been hearing the same old doom and gloom bullshit as long as I can remember.
America isn’t falling apart but some of the rest of the world is catching up.
[/quote]
Yup, and if you look back at old news papers and shit from yesteryear they too had all the same gloom and doom bullshit. Fear mongering sells, period. We can talk happy, but people just don’t care for “all is well” news. Do you ever hear anything positive on the news casts?
[quote]Sloth wrote:
Just an idea of how bad spending has gotten.
Our own GAO predicts that in 2040 we could be left with with doing the following in order to balance the budget:
-Raising Federal Taxes twice their present level
-Cutting spending by 60%[/quote]
Long before then, America will simply be a province of ‘Oceania’. The debts will be repudiated, and freedom will be seen as an historical anachronism, something that we can no longer afford. We’ll be watched and monitored 24/7/365.
Why do you think we ran up all those huge debts in the first place? To help the poor or elderly? LOL! Those things were created to do exactly what they are doing, bankrupting the country. Just as an individual bankrupt has little freedom, a bankrupt country will have little or none.
Bankers and their ilk will run the world.
War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength
[quote]Varqanir wrote:
Anyone who wants to understand the Fate of America should study the fates of the great civilizations that preceded it.
You can do no better than reading A Study of History by Arnold Toynbee, which paralleled the rise and fall of twenty-three civilizations.
According to Toynbee, all civilizations arise in response to some extremely difficult set of challenges, when “creative minorities” inspire unprecedented effort to solve the problems faced by the society. These challenges may be physical, as when the Minoans conquered the sea; or social, as when Athens reacted to the Persian onslaught.
The cycle of civilization comprises two major phases: a “universal state”, such as the Roman Empire, that arises out of a time of troubles; and an “interregnum” dominated by a higher religion and a “Volkerwanderung” (migration) of barbarians in a heroic age.
Breakdown of a great civilization occurs in three stage: 1) a failure of creative power in the creative minority; 2) the withdrawal of allegiance to the ruling minority on the part of the majority; and 3) the consequent loss of social unity.
It should not tax one’s imagination too much to fit American history into this framework, and make predictions accordingly.
Another good text, which I recommend all the time, is The Fates of Nations by Paul Colinvaux. Professor Colinvaux is an ecologist who formulated a biological theory of history. Like Toynbee, he concluded that all great civilizations rise and fall according to predictable patterns, but his thesis has overpopulation as the driving force behind the progressions, rather than moral strength and creativity, or their lack.
Colinvaux wrote his book back in the 80s, but many of his predictions have already come to pass.
As for my own opinion, I believe that the United States will become increasingly fragmented politically and racially, will experience increasingly heavy-handed federal administrations which will attempt to keep order by the use of increasingly brutal paramilitary police force, and will eventually split into three or more separate nations, with Civil War a not-unlikely event. I believe that all this will happen in this century.
P.S. I’m an optimist.[/quote]
I second that. But I’m a pessimist.