Some random thoughts of mine regarding these Finals:
– Boston is 12-5 in the post-season, while LA is 12-4. (In 2008, Boston was 12-8 while LA was 12-3 heading into the Finals).
– Boston’s road to the Finals has clearly been tougher than LA’s. Boston has defeated two opponents that are at least comparable to LA, while LA has not played anybody comparable to Boston this post-season.
– Looking more closely, 3 of Boston’s losses have occurred after they took 3-0 leads. Excluding all games after taking 3-0 leads, Boston is 10-2 and LA is 11-4.
– In closeout games, Boston is 0-2 on the road, and 3-1 at home, 3-3 overall. LA is 3-0 on the road and overall.
– LA has closed out 5 straight series on the road. 8 of their last 10 series victories were closed out on the road. 7 of Boston’s 8 series victories since '08 were closed out at home.
– The 2-3-2 format is a wacky format that gives an edge to the road team IF IF IF they can take Games 1 or 2. If they can’t, it gives a big edge to the home team. 2-2-1-1-1 is more “path-neutral”, in that holding serve at home doesn’t earn either team much additional benefit.
In 2-2-1-1-1, the road team just has to win 1 on the road, and it really doesn’t matter which road game they win. In 2-3-2, the road team really needs to win Games 1 or 2 or they’re backed into a corner.
– IMO, Boston’s top-to-bottom roster was better in '08, but they’re starting 5 are playing better in '10. LA’s top-to-bottom roster and their starting 5 are about the same in '10 as they were in '08, again IMO.
While the '08 Finals were not particularly close, that difference could easily be made up by the decline in Boston’s bench and the change in HCA.
– Garnett has regressed noticeably since '08, especially on the offensive end. Rondo has improved exponentially offensively since '08. Even if the emergence of Rondo perfectly replaces the decline of Garnett, it changes Boston’s dynamic into a more perimeter-based team.
– For the first-time this post-season, LA does not have their opponent defeated based on roster alone. LA’s personnel gave them a dominating advantage in the paint against OKC, Utah, and PHX. As long as LA didn’t stink up the joint, they were NOT going to lose 4 out of 7 to those opponents. That advantage does not exist against Boston; they’re going to have to out-play Boston in order to beat them. Obviously, the reverse is true as well.
– Phil Jackson is going to have to earn his keep in this series. Boston has 3 major offensive threats on the perimeter (Allen, Pierce, and Rondo), while LA only has 2 strong perimeter defenders (Bryant and Artest). Jackson is going to have to rotate matchups to try and play whack-a-mole for his perimeter defense.
– Anybody that holds out “Kobe is out for revenge after '08” as an argument for LA is a retard. What, did Kobe not play hard in '08? Is Boston just happy to be here this year? Please.
– These two team are about as evenly matched as possible. I’ll guess Lakers in 7, mainly because of HCA.