[quote]Mufasa wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Would YOU run for President?
Mufasa[/quote]
Yes.[/quote]
More power to you, CB…
Mufasa[/quote]
haha, I want to know the truth about JFK, MLK Jr & X.
“i’m predicting Obama will take an early lead today, until all the republicans get off work”
saw this on Facebook, hahaha
[quote]angry chicken wrote:
Apparently, I can’t vote in VA cuz I’m a felon. I COULD HAVE, but I got back from the Gulf too late to get the paperwork through in time - it still hasn’t arrived, so I am effectively disenfranchised this election (the hoops I had to jump through were a real pain in the ass). However, I convinced THREE of my co-workers to switch their vote from Obama to Romney and we’ll all be driving to the polls after work - I’ll be there for moral support. So although I can’t directly contribute this time around, I feel that I contributed to the cause as best I could. I also donated to the Romney campaign.
I’m not as up to speed on all the states as you guys are, but I can say that Romney has really gained some momentum here in VA. More than half of the guys on my job are voting for GOP across the board - and we’re all union. I guess they finally realized that in order to be employed and WORKING as a union electrician instead of sitting on the bench with your thumb up your ass, there has to be something to BUILD! I predict that Romney will take VA. I’m praying that he’ll take the whole thing. I’m cautiously optimistic, but like push just said, the fact that it’s THIS CLOSE is a sure sign the country is in a very bad place… [/quote]
You did more than your share, AC. Thanks for that. I particularly appreciate it since you are in VA.
S&P up a bit over %1 from it’s lows last night and pushing higher.
Based on the way the market is trading, I’d assume we’re getting some East Coast results in that are pro-Romney, maybe VA or PA…?
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
I saw both men (President Obama and Romney) on TV last night. For both, it was one of their last campaign stops.
They both looked and sounded like they had just come out of a Fire Fight.
Personally I give kudos to BOTH men. Irrespective of what you may think of each man; and irrespective of the eventual outcome…I think they both gave it their all.
Mufasa[/quote]
Clinton too. I’m surprised he’s put this much into the capaign. Last I saw him, his voice was really hoarse and he tired as hell.
…The revelation that poll workers are relying on the photo to identify Holder comes after conservative filmmaker James O?Keefe captured undercover footage earlier this year of DC poll workers offering Holder?s ballot to a young white activist.
http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/06/eric-holder-can-breathe-a-sigh-of-relief/
How in the world did I miss this earlier, referenced in the story above?
Just got back from voting and the workers in my district who are almost all seniors who have worked that poll forever say this is the highest turnout since they have been there. Trouble is, in the metro Detroit area that can mean anything. The camps are everywhere shoving literature into your hand. The Obamanoids have a sheet that has a smiling potus on the top with a picture of the ballot showing every pick to advance the Marxist agenda. Step by step. I saw one on the desk of one of the people in the office I’m working in today.
#votewhite now trending on twitter
[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
Just got back from voting and the workers in my district who are almost all seniors who have worked that poll forever say this is the highest turnout since they have been there. Trouble is, in the metro Detroit area that can mean anything. The camps are everywhere shoving literature into your hand. The Obamanoids have a sheet that has a smiling potus on the top with a picture of the ballot showing every pick to advance the Marxist agenda. Step by step. I saw one on the desk of one of the people in the office I’m working in today.[/quote]
Detroit? LOL Obama by about 2 to 1.
Ok, so I wanted to post another slightly more detailed prediction…I know it is already election day but I haven’t looked at any news yet and since I already threw my prediction in the ring I figured I’d still be welcome at the party hopefully :).
So here it is: Romney wins by 5 points nationally , I think 53% 47% although it could be a bit different depending on how many people vote for “other”.
Romney carries Ohio. No candidate has ever won Ohio trailing the Independent vote, and Obama trails by double digits. Further, as of earlier this week the net 257,000 early voter swing to Romney sets the tone for today. This in my opinion was not that hard of a call to make because of the early voting swing and dearth of Independents. If those two had different showings I think I would have had a much harder time calling it. The early voting is where Dems have the historical advantage…and a sizeable one. This year about 150,000 LESS voted dem and about a 100,000 more voted Reps. Republicans have had a historical turnout advantage on Election Day itself, and this means they win the state. This Election Day advantage is a national advantage though, and it will show.
This election will be an R +2 election. Sample pools have been systematically biased and turnout will reflect that, although this is not a wave election.
Romney carries CO, OH, FL, VA, NH, Wisconsin, and either PA or Iowa. I don’t think he gets both, but it’s a lot closer of a showing than people predict. I think Romney also carries 1 state that people didn’t think he would get (yes I would put PA in that category because it leans Dem, but not OH because it was a “toss-up”). I’m not sure about Iowa to be honest because I haven’t looked at a lot of numbers or coverage of it specifically. I think it goes Romney, but narrowly. Yes I pulled that out of my ass–I might as well toss my hat ALL the way into the ring even though I haven’t watched Iowa closely (or at all). I would actually put this in one of the “states Romney is not expected to carry” list because it seems to lean Dem, but again I’m not up on Iowa unfortunately.
Obama wins the women’s vote, but only by 4-7%, not the massive lead everybody keeps thinking he has.
Obama loses 4+ points in the African American vote (still of course carrying the demographic)
Obama does not carry over 75% of the Hispanic vote
Demographic turnout for African Americans is down at least 10% from 2008 nationally
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
Ok, so I wanted to post another slightly more detailed prediction…I know it is already election day but I haven’t looked at any news yet and since I already threw my prediction in the ring I figured I’d still be welcome at the party hopefully :).
So here it is: Romney wins by 5 points nationally , I think 53% 47% although it could be a bit different depending on how many people vote for “other”.
Romney carries Ohio. No candidate has ever won Ohio trailing the Independent vote, and Obama trails by double digits. Further, as of earlier this week the net 257,000 early voter swing to Romney sets the tone for today. This in my opinion was not that hard of a call to make because of the early voting swing and dearth of Independents. If those two had different showings I think I would have had a much harder time calling it. The early voting is where Dems have the historical advantage…and a sizeable one. This year about 150,000 LESS voted dem and about a 100,000 more voted Reps. Republicans have had a historical turnout advantage on Election Day itself, and this means they win the state. This Election Day advantage is a national advantage though, and it will show.
This election will be an R +2 election. Sample pools have been systematically biased and turnout will reflect that, although this is not a wave election.
Romney carries CO, OH, FL, VA, NH, Wisconsin, and either PA or Iowa. I don’t think he gets both, but it’s a lot closer of a showing than people predict. I think Romney also carries 1 state that people didn’t think he would get (yes I would put PA in that category because it leans Dem, but not OH because it was a “toss-up”). I’m not sure about Iowa to be honest because I haven’t looked at a lot of numbers or coverage of it specifically. I think it goes Romney, but narrowly. Yes I pulled that out of my ass–I might as well toss my hat ALL the way into the ring even though I haven’t watched Iowa closely (or at all). I would actually put this in one of the “states Romney is not expected to carry” list because it seems to lean Dem, but again I’m not up on Iowa unfortunately.
Obama wins the women’s vote, but only by 4-7%, not the massive lead everybody keeps thinking he has.
Obama loses 4+ points in the African American vote (still of course carrying the demographic)
Obama does not carry over 75% of the Hispanic vote
Demographic turnout for African Americans is down at least 10% from 2008 nationally[/quote]
Um…why don’t you just wait until tonight and give us your projections?
No no just kidding.
By the way I think you are a tad off with the women’s vote. Obama may win the female vote but it will be much closer.
Yeah sorry Zeb, I would have posted last night but I had rather ugly serious business to take care of and didn’t make it back until hitting the bed. But I promise I didn’t look at any news or read any articles or tweets yet! …besides, I already picked RomperStomper by 53/47 about 20 pages earlier in this massive thread lol.
…aaaaand now the news obsession begins today.
I think it’s closer than that too, but I’m being generous because he’s led that demographic for like 6 years (yes I’m counting primaries before he was POTUS). I think realistically he wins maybe by 2 points, but then women are emotional creatures 
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
Yeah sorry Zeb, I would have posted last night but I had rather ugly serious business to take care of and didn’t make it back until hitting the bed. But I promise I didn’t look at any news or read any articles or tweets yet! …besides, I already picked RomperStomper by 53/47 about 20 pages earlier in this massive thread lol.
…aaaaand now the news obsession begins today.
I think it’s closer than that too, but I’m being generous because he’s led that demographic for like 6 years (yes I’m counting primaries before he was POTUS). I think realistically he wins maybe by 2 points, but then women are emotional creatures :P[/quote]
Obama’s has been losing women because:
-
Romney’s dynamic first debate performance where they saw that he was not the nasty old rich guy out to hurt women.
-
Obama looking and saying various things that women don’t like, such as, " Vote out of vengence"
-
Paul Ryan has actually attracted women to the ticket. I have family in Ohio and the women are all over that guy. So this one is anecdotal.
-
Women are more emotional you said it my friend. And hearing the Romney stump speech has been somewhat moving to them.
-
Obama pushed this war on women to the ridiculous point where they started to realize they were being manipulated.
Finally, we have to separate women by age demo. Women 18-39 Obama will do very well. Women 40+ he will actually lose!
We’ll get to see the break down after the election but I would bet on this read and these numbers.
Oh, and as far as posting late–YOU ARE OUT OF THE POOL! No, actually there was no pool. Too bad huh?
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
Ok, so I wanted to post another slightly more detailed prediction…I know it is already election day but I haven’t looked at any news yet and since I already threw my prediction in the ring I figured I’d still be welcome at the party hopefully :).
So here it is: Romney wins by 5 points nationally , I think 53% 47% although it could be a bit different depending on how many people vote for “other”.
Romney carries Ohio. No candidate has ever won Ohio trailing the Independent vote, and Obama trails by double digits. Further, as of earlier this week the net 257,000 early voter swing to Romney sets the tone for today. This in my opinion was not that hard of a call to make because of the early voting swing and dearth of Independents. If those two had different showings I think I would have had a much harder time calling it. The early voting is where Dems have the historical advantage…and a sizeable one. This year about 150,000 LESS voted dem and about a 100,000 more voted Reps. Republicans have had a historical turnout advantage on Election Day itself, and this means they win the state. This Election Day advantage is a national advantage though, and it will show.
This election will be an R +2 election. Sample pools have been systematically biased and turnout will reflect that, although this is not a wave election.
Romney carries CO, OH, FL, VA, NH, Wisconsin, and either PA or Iowa. I don’t think he gets both, but it’s a lot closer of a showing than people predict. I think Romney also carries 1 state that people didn’t think he would get (yes I would put PA in that category because it leans Dem, but not OH because it was a “toss-up”). I’m not sure about Iowa to be honest because I haven’t looked at a lot of numbers or coverage of it specifically. I think it goes Romney, but narrowly. Yes I pulled that out of my ass–I might as well toss my hat ALL the way into the ring even though I haven’t watched Iowa closely (or at all). I would actually put this in one of the “states Romney is not expected to carry” list because it seems to lean Dem, but again I’m not up on Iowa unfortunately.
Obama wins the women’s vote, but only by 4-7%, not the massive lead everybody keeps thinking he has.
Obama loses 4+ points in the African American vote (still of course carrying the demographic)
Obama does not carry over 75% of the Hispanic vote
Demographic turnout for African Americans is down at least 10% from 2008 nationally[/quote]
Wow, that is Zeb-like detail. Next election, yall start a blog and I will just go get my news from it.
I think this is perhaps the most interesting factoid: No candidate has ever won Ohio trailing the Independent vote, and Obama trails by double digits.
Ya jist gotta love my town.
http://radio.foxnews.com/toddstarnes/top-stories/poll-watcher-threatened-with-gun-voter-punched-in-detroit.html
The time for predictions is over 
now we just wait and see which leader we get and rally behind them hoping they only work to improve our situation. I wish both of them luck and hope that which ever plan we end up with we improve our economy and that few of my fears and misgivings are justified.
[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
Yeah sorry Zeb, I would have posted last night but I had rather ugly serious business to take care of and didn’t make it back until hitting the bed. But I promise I didn’t look at any news or read any articles or tweets yet! …besides, I already picked RomperStomper by 53/47 about 20 pages earlier in this massive thread lol.
…aaaaand now the news obsession begins today.
I think it’s closer than that too, but I’m being generous because he’s led that demographic for like 6 years (yes I’m counting primaries before he was POTUS). I think realistically he wins maybe by 2 points, but then women are emotional creatures :P[/quote]
Obama’s has been losing women because:
-
Romney’s dynamic first debate performance where they saw that he was not the nasty old rich guy out to hurt women.
-
Obama looking and saying various things that women don’t like, such as, " Vote out of vengence"
-
Paul Ryan has actually attracted women to the ticket. I have family in Ohio and the women are all over that guy. So this one is anecdotal.
-
Women are more emotional you said it my friend. And hearing the Romney stump speech has been somewhat moving to them.
-
Obama pushed this war on women to the ridiculous point where they started to realize they were being manipulated.
Finally, we have to separate women by age demo. Women 18-39 Obama will do very well. Women 40+ he will actually lose!
We’ll get to see the break down after the election but I would bet on this read and these numbers.
Oh, and as far as posting late–YOU ARE OUT OF THE POOL! No, actually there was no pool. Too bad huh? [/quote]
You forgot to add…
That Romney is not the Darth fucking Vader that the Liberal Left painted him to be.
He came off well-spoken, reasonable, calculating, and believable as a President.
Providing a significant boost to an effort to end-around the Electoral College, California Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation on Monday that would award the Golden State?s 55 electoral votes to the presidential candidate garnering the most votes nationwide.
California, which has more electoral votes than any other state in the nation, is the eighth state to join the National Popular Vote compact, an effort to end the Electoral College’s role in picking presidents.
The bipartisan movement is trying to convince state legislatures to commit their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote, precluding elections like the one in 2000, when George W. Bush won the presidency despite losing the national popular vote to Democrat Al Gore.
[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]Aragorn wrote:
Yeah sorry Zeb, I would have posted last night but I had rather ugly serious business to take care of and didn’t make it back until hitting the bed. But I promise I didn’t look at any news or read any articles or tweets yet! …besides, I already picked RomperStomper by 53/47 about 20 pages earlier in this massive thread lol.
…aaaaand now the news obsession begins today.
I think it’s closer than that too, but I’m being generous because he’s led that demographic for like 6 years (yes I’m counting primaries before he was POTUS). I think realistically he wins maybe by 2 points, but then women are emotional creatures :P[/quote]
Obama’s has been losing women because:
-
Romney’s dynamic first debate performance where they saw that he was not the nasty old rich guy out to hurt women.
-
Obama looking and saying various things that women don’t like, such as, " Vote out of vengence"
-
Paul Ryan has actually attracted women to the ticket. I have family in Ohio and the women are all over that guy. So this one is anecdotal.
-
Women are more emotional you said it my friend. And hearing the Romney stump speech has been somewhat moving to them.
-
Obama pushed this war on women to the ridiculous point where they started to realize they were being manipulated.
Finally, we have to separate women by age demo. Women 18-39 Obama will do very well. Women 40+ he will actually lose!
We’ll get to see the break down after the election but I would bet on this read and these numbers.
Oh, and as far as posting late–YOU ARE OUT OF THE POOL! No, actually there was no pool. Too bad huh? [/quote]
Lol. Dammit! I already paid my money!
I think you make a good point about Ryan and the ridiculous War on Women. Well, it was always ridiculous, but the extent to which he pushed it I mean.
[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
Wow, that is Zeb-like detail. Next election, yall start a blog and I will just go get my news from it.
I think this is perhaps the most interesting factoid: No candidate has ever won Ohio trailing the Independent vote, and Obama trails by double digits.[/quote]
Wow, that is high praise coming from you TB, thanks haha! I’ve learned more from you than almost anybody else here in PWI (the old BostonBarrister and DocSkeptix also coming to mind). You have excellent analysis, I’ve got a ways to go but hey–maybe I pull a Nate Silver and call all the numbers just perfect so I can get my own NYT column.
Hey, a guy can dream.