[quote]MaximusB wrote:
This is why I like the Real Clear Politics Poll, they average out a number of polls over a number of days which is probably a pretty good estimate of where the truth is.
Today’s Real Clear Politics Poll has Romney up by .2% percentage points.[/quote]
I could not agree more. The poll of the polls is the single best indicator of which way people are leaning. I would much rather see this than any single poll. More respondents = more accuracy.
jnd
To show you how far off a poll can be, we had a vote on whether to pass tax increases on the state level, and it was favored to pass by 56%. It lost 64-36 on election day.
I’m curious.
Was there much Polling prior to the Mid-terms? (I’m sure there was some, because there was always speculation about whom would take over the House and Senate).
How accurate and/or far-off was that Polling?
Was the landside in the House predicted?
Mufasa
[quote]ZEB wrote:<<< The two polls that I believe to be the most accurate are Gallup and Rasmussen. >>>[/quote]I have to agree. Most lean waaay left and FOX’s polls generally reflect their more conservative consumers. I will say thought that polls like Yahoo puts on it’s homepage sometimes may be pretty accurate just because of the zillions of people who participate in them. They have recently shown Romney to be gaining as well. Rasmussen is a conservative himself. No doubt about it, but he takes the credibility of his business very very seriously and his extremely well researched and fastidious method in my view yields the best results we’re likely to get.
[quote]MaximusB wrote:
To show you how far off a poll can be, we had a vote on whether to pass tax increases on the state level, and it was favored to pass by 56%. It lost 64-36 on election day.[/quote]
All polls are fallible and all polling firms produce outliers. But it would be a mistake to equate state-level polling on a single issue with an aggregator like realclearpolitics or a forecast model like fivethirtyeight. Margin of error decreases as sample size rises, and an aggregator is in many ways a single poll with a huge sample size. It would be highly unlikely that a collection of polls, many of them quite large themselves, would miss the mark by such a margin as you have cited.
Also, the party affiliation argument is highly overblown. Affiliation is is a fluid, not a fixed, variable. If a candidate is leading, his party SHOULD be overrepresented in the polls. Controlling for demographic variables like age and race is a much better way to ensure accuracy. As an example: I am a registered Republican and so are my mother and brother. All three of us voted for Obama in 2008 and I’d have identified as a Democrat on my way out of the booth.
Oh me? I’m a liberal.
Come on, 99% of the time the answer to this question will split down the line of who somebody supports. We want to be right, ergo we will believe what makes us right. Odds would truly have to be overwhelming for someone to admit they’re backing a loser.
[quote]smh23 wrote:
or a forecast model like fivethirtyeight. [/quote]
Dude, I’m sorry but Silver is fast becoming a douche. Not only is the times an extension of the Obama campaign but he is just like Krugman…
Silver and Krugman could both have great careers NOT being souless shills for one party over the other (with the emergence of the tea party, ron paul bots, and even occupy to a degree, people like Krugman are scared, as his economic theories are proving to be causing massive problems in developed countries, and people are noticing.)
All I’m saying is Silver has gone out of his way to discount polls he doesn’t like, and he is in love with anything that says Obama +286,754. Although I haven’t gone back after he was the only source saying the debate didn’t change the race significantly, so he might have come back to earth since.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]smh23 wrote:
or a forecast model like fivethirtyeight. [/quote]
Dude, I’m sorry but Silver is fast becoming a douche. Not only is the times an extension of the Obama campaign but he is just like Krugman…
Silver and Krugman could both have great careers NOT being souless shills for one party over the other (with the emergence of the tea party, ron paul bots, and even occupy to a degree, people like Krugman are scared, as his economic theories are proving to be causing massive problems in developed countries, and people are noticing.)
All I’m saying is Silver has gone out of his way to discount polls he doesn’t like, and he is in love with anything that says Obama +286,754. Although I haven’t gone back after he was the only source saying the debate didn’t change the race significantly, so he might have come back to earth since. [/quote]
I have not read Silver (or any other pollster), but if his point was that historically debates are meaningless (as are conventions) for the pulling of levers (or pressing of touchscreens), then I agree with him.
Moreover, I suspect that when we all wake up tomorrow morning Obama will retake the lead- regardless of his debate performance. Based on the polling data, Romney’s high point was 48% (he is usually between 46 and 47) whereas Obama has hovered around 49% - and they are both heading back to where they were before the first debate.
jnd
[quote]jnd wrote:
and they are both heading back to where they were before the first debate.
jnd
[/quote]
According to who? the radio just had a Suffolk university poll that had them tied in NH, which went Obama by like 8 or9% in 2008… USA Today released numbers yesterday that contradict what you are saying as well
Krugman is an economist.
I also think you are discounting how drastically one sided that debate was. Whether you are a “romney won” or “obama lost” type of guy, it was historically one sided.
I’m not saying you are wrong here, you may be, but I am curious what you are reading that is telling you that?
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]jnd wrote:
and they are both heading back to where they were before the first debate.
jnd
[/quote]
According to who? the radio just had a Suffolk university poll that had them tied in NH, which went Obama by like 8 or9% in 2008… USA Today released numbers yesterday that contradict what you are saying as well
Krugman is an economist.
I also think you are discounting how drastically one sided that debate was. Whether you are a “romney won” or “obama lost” type of guy, it was historically one sided.
I’m not saying you are wrong here, you may be, but I am curious what you are reading that is telling you that?[/quote]
I am using the data that is available at realclearpolitics.com. They provide a number of polls. If you look at the averages, then you can see what I am describing.
Again- I would be careful listening to the poll-of-the-day. Any one poll is going to be misleading, it is the average of the polls that will tell you which way the wind is blowing.
I am not discounting that debate, I am discounting them ALL. Who won, who lost does not do much for me. On the whole, debates don’t move the needle. I do not enjoy watch politicians spew their points of view in a high-school style debate.
I am curious what you have learned by watching two politicians debate.
jnd
Currently the momentum is in Romney’s direction because of that first debate performance. Because of that debate performance Romney DID move the needle. What the first debate proved was that some of Obama’s support is weak and can be taken from him. The millions of dollars in negative ads that Obama ran all summer long were mostly washed away by that one performance.
I don’t expect tonight’s debate to change many minds. Although Obama has the advantage as I’ve already explained. The expectations for him are so low he only needs to walk out on stage not drool, flash a smile and say a few smart things and the MSLM will call it a tie, or an Obama win. I could be wrong but I don’t think Romney doesn’t have much to gain tonight, but he can hold the line.
In my opinion the Town Hall format is inferior to allowing both candidates go at each other in a one on one format.
Agree.
That first performance 1) DID move the needle (like Zeb said) AND 2) virtually stopped the President’s momemtum. (In some Polls he had double-digit leads).
The thought is that the race is now where it was pre-Convention…in other words a dead heat.
And to me, a tie actually favors Romney because of the strong “Not-Obama” sentiment out there.
Mufasa
[quote]jnd wrote:
I am using the data that is available at realclearpolitics.com. They provide a number of polls. If you look at the averages, then you can see what I am describing.
Again- I would be careful listening to the poll-of-the-day. Any one poll is going to be misleading, it is the average of the polls that will tell you which way the wind is blowing.[/quote]
Dude, no offense, but I can’t find anything that backs up what you are saying, please link it.
Even John King was saying it is advantage romney this morning.
You, and people that are so far from center that thier opinion is moot, are the only people who aren’t saying that this race is tied, which is advantage challenger. Even obama’s own email asking for donations said the race is tied.
You are in the vast minority if you think the last debate didn’t move the needle.
[quote] I do not enjoy watch politicians spew their points of view in a high-school style debate.
I am curious what you have learned by watching two politicians debate.
jnd[/quote]
What I learned is, hey look at that, the debate moved the needle. Does it happen often? No, but it did happen.
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Agree.
That first performance 1) DID move the needle (like Zeb said) AND 2) virtually stopped the President’s momemtum. (In some Polls he had double-digit leads).
The thought is that the race is now where it was pre-Convention…in other words a dead heat.
And to me, a tie actually favors Romney because of the strong “Not-Obama” sentiment out there.
Mufasa[/quote]
That’s not actually the case the pre convention numbers had the race a dead heat. This mornings numbers have Romney up by 4 points in the battle ground states…that is a first! He has also captured 50% of the female vote, that too is a first.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]jnd wrote:
I am using the data that is available at realclearpolitics.com. They provide a number of polls. If you look at the averages, then you can see what I am describing.
Again- I would be careful listening to the poll-of-the-day. Any one poll is going to be misleading, it is the average of the polls that will tell you which way the wind is blowing.[/quote]
Dude, no offense, but I can’t find anything that backs up what you are saying, please link it.
Even John King was saying it is advantage romney this morning.
You, and people that are so far from center that thier opinion is moot, are the only people who aren’t saying that this race is tied, which is advantage challenger. Even obama’s own email asking for donations said the race is tied.
You are in the vast minority if you think the last debate didn’t move the needle.
[quote] I do not enjoy watch politicians spew their points of view in a high-school style debate.
I am curious what you have learned by watching two politicians debate.
jnd[/quote]
What I learned is, hey look at that, the debate moved the needle. Does it happen often? No, but it did happen.[/quote]
Whether or not the debate moved the needle will only be decided on election day. Minor fluctuations in the polling data a month in advance does not tell me that the outcome has been changed. If you look at this graph (RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama), it shows what I was describing.
jnd
My mistake.
The First Debate saw the numbers FIRST go a virtual tie in the Polls, with Romney NOW showing gains/leads in key states and among certain demographics. (e.g. women)
Mufasa
[quote]jnd wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]jnd wrote:
I am using the data that is available at realclearpolitics.com. They provide a number of polls. If you look at the averages, then you can see what I am describing.
Again- I would be careful listening to the poll-of-the-day. Any one poll is going to be misleading, it is the average of the polls that will tell you which way the wind is blowing.[/quote]
Dude, no offense, but I can’t find anything that backs up what you are saying, please link it.
Even John King was saying it is advantage romney this morning.
You, and people that are so far from center that thier opinion is moot, are the only people who aren’t saying that this race is tied, which is advantage challenger. Even obama’s own email asking for donations said the race is tied.
You are in the vast minority if you think the last debate didn’t move the needle.
[quote] I do not enjoy watch politicians spew their points of view in a high-school style debate.
I am curious what you have learned by watching two politicians debate.
jnd[/quote]
What I learned is, hey look at that, the debate moved the needle. Does it happen often? No, but it did happen.[/quote]
Whether or not the debate moved the needle will only be decided on election day. Minor fluctuations in the polling data a month in advance does not tell me that the outcome has been changed. If you look at this graph (RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama), it shows what I was describing.
jnd[/quote]
Certainly if you define “moving the needle” as who wins in the end then obviously no one moves to the needle until election day. But the standard definition of “moving the needle” has been immediate poll numbers. And by that definition Romney moved the needle after the first debate. And what is even more interesting has moved it even further since the first debate. And that is called “momentum” unless of course you want to change the definition of momentum as you did the phrase “move the needle”
Hey they’re only words they can mean whatever you want them to in your world.
[quote]jnd wrote:
Minor fluctuations in the polling data [/quote]
Are you reading the same graph I am? Minor?
Dude, no one in the press that has any respect at all agrees with you on this, at least that I can find…
[quote] If you look at this graph (RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama), it shows what I was describing.
jnd[/quote]
No, not really… Looking at the 7, 14, 30 & 6 month, it shows romney losing like 25% of his 4 point jump from 9/30, and holding at 47.4…
In addition to the USA-Today/Gallup poll showing Romney leading by five in swing states, from Public Policy Polling for the DailyKos/SEIU poll:
Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney's best numbers of the week
[i]The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?
Obama 46 (47)
Romney 50 (49)[/i]
…
Finally, a demographic noteâ??in this poll, 44 percent of respondents were conservative, compared to 16 percent who were liberal. In 2008, 34 percent were conservative, and 22 percent were liberal. Now this could point to a bad sample, or it could point to depressed enthusiasm among our base. Let’s really hope it’s the former.