Just to add with what TB said:
It’s something that we haven’t heard much about…that the populace would vote so convincingly “against” the President in the Mid-Terms…then would vote “for” him now.
Now some would say, “People want more “checks-and-balances” with no one party holding both the White House and both the House and Senate”.
I don’t think that this election will involve that level of introspection.
It will clearly be “Obama” or “Not-Obama”.
Mufasa
I also think that the next two debates are going to be an afterthought.
The first debate was the one that was going to make the most difference…and that it did!
Mufasa
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]therajraj wrote:
Obama significantly[/quote]
While I think he will win, I think it will be close.
What leads you to believe “significantly”?
[/quote]
From reading the different news sites and seeing the support many have for the president.
This is a highly conservative forum, we get bombarded with URL links from conservative sources and an endless line of anti-Obama posts. For that reason it may appear to be a lot closer than it actually is.
So long as he does a decent job in the next debate, I can see him winning with some breathing room. Not a landslide.
I don’t know.
[quote]therajraj wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]therajraj wrote:
Obama significantly[/quote]
While I think he will win, I think it will be close.
What leads you to believe “significantly”?
[/quote]
From reading the different news sites and seeing the support many have for the president.
This is a highly conservative forum, we get bombarded with URL links from conservative sources and an endless line of anti-Obama posts. For that reason it may appear to be a lot closer than it actually is.
So long as he does a decent job in the next debate, I can see him winning with some breathing room. Not a landslide.[/quote]
Certainly an important factor in our perceptions, raj.
Mufasa
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
I also think that the next two debates are going to be an afterthought.
The first debate was the one that was going to make the most difference…and that it did!
Mufasa[/quote]
True. A lot of us follow the election rather closely and we consequently learned basically nothing new from either debate (well, the argument could be made that Romney came out with some positions he hasn’t exactly championed before, but that aside). Many people do not follow politics in detail, got a look at Romney and thought, “well, that guy doesn’t seem like the heartless bastard he’s been made out to be.” And presto, the polls are tied. It’s unlikely that anything like that revelation will follow either of the remaining debates.
edited
[quote]therajraj wrote:
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]therajraj wrote:
Obama significantly[/quote]
While I think he will win, I think it will be close.
What leads you to believe “significantly”?
[/quote]
From reading the different news sites and seeing the support many have for the president.
This is a highly conservative forum, we get bombarded with URL links from conservative sources and an endless line of anti-Obama posts. For that reason it may appear to be a lot closer than it actually is.
So long as he does a decent job in the next debate, I can see him winning with some breathing room. Not a landslide.
[/quote]
Dude, I read left leaning sites too. Where are you reading that is giving such a comfortable lead to Obama?
Outside of Nate Silver, who is so far in the bag for the left it isn’t even funny, I just don’t see any reputable source that is as confident as you are. And I know people like to say the New York Times is the paper of record, blah blah balh, but if you don’t see the left lean to it, I don’t know what to say to you.
All I’m getting at, is outside of places like thinkprogress and upworthy, this race closer than you’re assuming.
As for “seeing the support people have for the president”, where? Are you talking about hollywood, the NY Times and college students here?
Obama by 3%.
jnd
[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]
How are the polls biased? Which polls are biased? More importantly, are they still biased now that Romney has finally won a few?
Please explain your assertion.
jnd
[quote]jnd wrote:
[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]
How are the polls biased? Which polls are biased? More importantly, are they still biased now that Romney has finally won a few?
Please explain your assertion.
jnd [/quote]
You are fast becoming a one trick pony my friend. Do you work for Gallop or something?
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]jnd wrote:
[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]
How are the polls biased? Which polls are biased? More importantly, are they still biased now that Romney has finally won a few?
Please explain your assertion.
jnd [/quote]
You are fast becoming a one trick pony my friend. Do you work for Gallop or something?[/quote]
I do not work for- nor have I ever worked for any polling companies, although I have written and conducted surveys.
I have always been interested in how people respond to findings that diverge/converge with their own opinions. Presidential polling is just one type of evidence that I like to follow.
I just like the numbers and how people respond to them. In this case, kevinm1 has made a claim, that he believes and I just like to know how he came to the conclusion that the polls are biased. Maybe I am missing something and I see this as an opportunity to see how other people think.
jnd
I think Romeny will win for a couple of reasons:
This is one of those elections where the small % of votes taken by an independent only hurts Obama imo and allows for a Romeny win. There will be a lot of people jumping the Obama ship including democratic.
[quote]jnd wrote:
I just like the numbers and how people respond to them. In this case, kevinm1 has made a claim, that he believes and I just like to know how he came to the conclusion that the polls are biased. Maybe I am missing something and I see this as an opportunity to see how other people think.
jnd
[/quote]
Well, I’ve seen both sides bitch about polls D+8 or R+7 etc etc etc, and have seen some claim that only 9% of people called are responding.
I personally get a bit leary when the polls aren’t within the MOE of each other.
[/quote]
Well, I’ve seen both sides bitch about polls D+8 or R+7 etc etc etc, and have seen some claim that only 9% of people called are responding.
I personally get a bit leary when the polls aren’t within the MOE of each other.[/quote]
People always bitch about polls- especially when they are not aligned with their opinions.
The MOE is tightly correlated with the number of respondents- so I always look at that first- then examine other parts of the poll.
As long as the 9% are representative (derived via random sampling procedures) and there are several polls, they are trustworthy as a WHOLE. Any one poll is not enough, which is why I like the trends rather than the averages from any specific poll or polling agency.
jnd
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]jnd wrote:
I just like the numbers and how people respond to them. In this case, kevinm1 has made a claim, that he believes and I just like to know how he came to the conclusion that the polls are biased. Maybe I am missing something and I see this as an opportunity to see how other people think.
jnd
[/quote]
Well, I’ve seen both sides bitch about polls D+8 or R+7 etc etc etc, and have seen some claim that only 9% of people called are responding.
I personally get a bit leary when the polls aren’t within the MOE of each other.[/quote]
There are some polls that need to be ignored and others that need to be watched closely. Anything ABC or the NY Times does for example is not worth looking at. There are many others like that.
The two polls that I believe to be the most accurate are Gallup and Rasmussen. And as of today Romney has an insignificant lead of 1pt. over Obama nationally. And most of the swing states are too close to call. This race is basically tied. I am not of the belief that Romney is going to run away with this election. This country is simply too divided for that to happen. But I will say that Obama needs to open up a lead of greater than 2 points or he will lose. As I do believe that the turnout for Romney will be greater than for Obama. And I am guessing that the difference will be somewhere around 2%. For Obama to feel really comfortable he needs a nice 4-5 point lead.
For those of you who think Obama is finished because of one debate performance, or the mess in the Middle East, think again. Most of the media is doing a good job at not making this a game changing story. Granted it’s a big story, but if say Bush were President by now the MSLM would be screaming for impeachment and his poll numbers would be taking a nose dive. The Obama strategy is to make it look like Romney is trying to politicize the event. And many in the media are playing along nicely with that scenario.
As I’ve repeatedly stated it is going to be very difficult to defeat a sitting President who has about 70% of the media in his hip pocket. This latest Middle East tragedy is a great example of what I’ve been screaming about relative to the media. The average person still does not understand the gravity of what has taken place because most of the media are covering for Obama.
If on Tuesday night somehow Romney can deliver another knock out blow to Obama that will shake loose another 2% or so his way. But that is very unlikely. Based on the format, the moderator and Obama’s first performance this second debate should end in something close to a draw tuesday night. And a draw will once again make Obama look viable to the people who were either ready to abandon him, or had already left him.
In short, I feel that Romney might have peaked and the best that he can do is hold on to this minuscule lead (remember Romney wins if he’s behind by no more than 2 pts). The media will continue to tip things Obama’s way. The only thing that changes this is if the Benghazi story turns into a full blown scandal. And the media has no choice but to report on it thus damaging Obama. Or, if we have a similar incident which pops up that Obama’s fingerprints are on.
So in my opinion it’s a squeaker!
This is why I like the Real Clear Politics Poll, they average out a number of polls over a number of days which is probably a pretty good estimate of where the truth is.
Today’s Real Clear Politics Poll has Romney up by .2% percentage points.
And the winner is…
Not the voters.
[quote]jnd wrote:
As long as the 9% are representative (derived via random sampling procedures) and there are several polls, they are trustworthy as a WHOLE. Any one poll is not enough, which is why I like the trends rather than the averages from any specific poll or polling agency.[/quote]
That’s precisely the problem - D+9 samples aren’t representative, or more specifically aren’t likely representative, because they don’t reflect what the likely turnout will be.
[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
[quote]jnd wrote:
As long as the 9% are representative (derived via random sampling procedures) and there are several polls, they are trustworthy as a WHOLE. Any one poll is not enough, which is why I like the trends rather than the averages from any specific poll or polling agency.[/quote]
That’s precisely the problem - D+9 samples aren’t representative, or more specifically aren’t likely representative, because they don’t reflect what the likely turnout will be.[/quote]
Not just that but even with the plus 9 Obama only had a one two point lead, what sitting president had that little a lead with a +9 bonus? I still say landslide for Romney
[quote]MaximusB wrote:
This is why I like the Real Clear Politics Poll, they average out a number of polls over a number of days which is probably a pretty good estimate of where the truth is.
Today’s Real Clear Politics Poll has Romney up by .2% percentage points.[/quote]
The only problem that I would have with taking a “poll of the polls” is that some of the polls are obviously out of touch thus skewing the results.
For example, They have Romney up by 2 points while taking into consideration polls done by ABC, the NY Times and others who tip heavily on the side of Obama. Therefore, I would say that Romney is up by a tad more than 2 points taking into account only those polls that are not tipped one way or the other.
One more really important point to consider. National polls are less important than swing state polling. As you know the electoral college determines the winner, it is a state by state race. And one can win the popular vote and lose the election…just ask Al Gore!