[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Bart Starr endorces Romney in WI, reads from Lombardi’s book and brought to tears.
Does this swing the cheesehead vote and take the state for Romney?[/quote]
I don’t think that winning Wisconsin is as out of reach as some of the pundits believe. One reason that he chose Paul Ryan was to assure a win in Wisconsin. Also, the organization which helped Governor Walker win the recall election is in place and working over time for Mitt Romney. Currently in most credible polls Romney is tied with Obama in that state. While I hate to depend on Wisconsin to deliver the White House to Mitt Romney I don’t think it’s at all out of the question. I would not be surprised seeing Wisconsin go to Romney by a solid 3 points or so.
But…the focus should still be on Ohio for Romney to win the Presidency.[/quote]
I can’t find it now, but there was a great read about suburbs v city in WI and how the recall election worked out. It basically said, with a good ground game and entusiastic base, Romney walks in WI.
It was on Breitbart maybe, but I don’t remember. I sort of passed over it as I saw it as spin at the time.[/quote]
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Bart Starr endorces Romney in WI, reads from Lombardi’s book and brought to tears.
Does this swing the cheesehead vote and take the state for Romney?[/quote]
I don’t think that winning Wisconsin is as out of reach as some of the pundits believe. One reason that he chose Paul Ryan was to assure a win in Wisconsin. Also, the organization which helped Governor Walker win the recall election is in place and working over time for Mitt Romney. Currently in most credible polls Romney is tied with Obama in that state. While I hate to depend on Wisconsin to deliver the White House to Mitt Romney I don’t think it’s at all out of the question. I would not be surprised seeing Wisconsin go to Romney by a solid 3 points or so.
But…the focus should still be on Ohio for Romney to win the Presidency.[/quote]
Zeb:
Isn’t Romney tied (IMO “ahead”) in Ohio?
Mufasa[/quote]
He isn’t going to PA on Sunday because he is “close but behind” in Ohio…
[/quote]
Romney may not have to go to PA to win it.
This could be the shocker of the entire election. As I think I’ve already stated if 100,000 voters who live in the Philadelphia area who voted for Obama in 08’ either stay home, or vote for Romney because of personal problems related to the storm Romney can win PA!
Don’t get me wrong I am not predicting that this will happen. I am only putting it out there as a distinct possibility. Romney is only 3 or 4 pts down in PA and the hurricane could absolutely make the difference.
But he’s doing the right thing in going to Ohio. If I were him I would not waste any time on a long shot. But…it is still possible.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Bart Starr endorces Romney in WI, reads from Lombardi’s book and brought to tears.
Does this swing the cheesehead vote and take the state for Romney?[/quote]
I don’t think that winning Wisconsin is as out of reach as some of the pundits believe. One reason that he chose Paul Ryan was to assure a win in Wisconsin. Also, the organization which helped Governor Walker win the recall election is in place and working over time for Mitt Romney. Currently in most credible polls Romney is tied with Obama in that state. While I hate to depend on Wisconsin to deliver the White House to Mitt Romney I don’t think it’s at all out of the question. I would not be surprised seeing Wisconsin go to Romney by a solid 3 points or so.
But…the focus should still be on Ohio for Romney to win the Presidency.[/quote]
I can’t find it now, but there was a great read about suburbs v city in WI and how the recall election worked out. It basically said, with a good ground game and entusiastic base, Romney walks in WI.
It was on Breitbart maybe, but I don’t remember. I sort of passed over it as I saw it as spin at the time.[/quote]
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Bart Starr endorces Romney in WI, reads from Lombardi’s book and brought to tears.
Does this swing the cheesehead vote and take the state for Romney?[/quote]
I don’t think that winning Wisconsin is as out of reach as some of the pundits believe. One reason that he chose Paul Ryan was to assure a win in Wisconsin. Also, the organization which helped Governor Walker win the recall election is in place and working over time for Mitt Romney. Currently in most credible polls Romney is tied with Obama in that state. While I hate to depend on Wisconsin to deliver the White House to Mitt Romney I don’t think it’s at all out of the question. I would not be surprised seeing Wisconsin go to Romney by a solid 3 points or so.
But…the focus should still be on Ohio for Romney to win the Presidency.[/quote]
I can’t find it now, but there was a great read about suburbs v city in WI and how the recall election worked out. It basically said, with a good ground game and entusiastic base, Romney walks in WI.
It was on Breitbart maybe, but I don’t remember. I sort of passed over it as I saw it as spin at the time.[/quote]
Thanks for posting the above. I think the guy has nailed it. But I also think that team Romney is on it. I’ve spoken with Karl Rove on a few occasions, he’s friends with a friend of mine, and he talked at length about not just trying to win any given state but winning key areas within that state. Regardless of the state you must pull the votes that are likely to be yours. In short, the areas that are able to be tipped.
[quote]ZEB wrote:
I’ve spoken with Karl Rove on a few occasions, [/quote]
Love to pick that dude’s brain.
Do you know any good books on how to run a camp? Or the insider’s view?[/quote]
Rove is the one who told me that he thought Rubio would be the best pick. That was at least 5 months before Romney chose Ryan.
His thoughts were that Rubio would guarantee Florida but moreover the Latino vote as well. I think he was spot on. However, if Romney wins Florida anyway (although it no doubt cost him more in time and money by not choosing Rubio)and then ends up winning the Presidency because he wins Wisconsin then he’s a genius for picking Ryan.
In other news, you know you have a problem when you are scouring news and blogs at 9pm on Friday.
But then again I have a 10 month old so, I don’t get out much.[/quote]
I remember that stage of life. But I have to tell you it doesn’t get any better. When you have teens you are up worrying and waiting for them to come home.
Just for shits and giggles (and because I haven’t followed the entire thread) has the possibility of a Romney-Biden administration been brought up yet?
In the case of a tie, where each candidate wins 269 electoral votes, the (persumably Repub) House would pick the President and the (presumably Democrat) Senate would pick the VP.
Quoting from Bloomberg (the news service, not the Mayor): Obama and Romney could reach a 269-269 deadlock in any of several ways. One possibility is that Obama could win Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado, with Romney taking Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. A second scenario would require Romney to win Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia, and Obama to capture Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. "
I would also add that in 20 states, members of the Electoral College are not bound to vote in a partisan manner.
I’m on the record forecasting an Obama win even though I’d much rather see Romney take it, but watching the markets today, I saw something that concerned me.
Non-farm payrolls increased by 171k in October, easily surpassing the median estimate of 125k. On the announcement, the S&P immediately spiked as expected. The S&P then came off it’s highs and settled the day down nearly %1. I interpret this as concern that the much higher than expected NFP number helped Obama’s chances of being elected and the US equities markets were discounting this increasingly likely possibility.
[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:
I’m on the record forecasting an Obama win even though I’d much rather see Romney take it, but watching the markets today, I saw something that concerned me.
Non-farm payrolls increased by 171k in October, easily surpassing the median estimate of 125k. On the announcement, the S&P immediately spiked as expected. The S&P then came off it’s highs and settled the day down nearly %1. I interpret this as concern that the much higher than expected NFP number helped Obama’s chances of being elected and the US equities markets were discounting this increasingly likely possibility.[/quote]
We’re now at the point where either Obama wins the electoral college OR (and not unlikely) the vast majority of the polls have been systematically biased, turn out to have been wrong, and Romney wins.
I still can’t really call this. When I look at the electoral prediction maps it certainly looks like Obama has the clear edge. But it just doesn’t “feel” that way and it hasn’t since Denver (but really since about June 2009). And the poll bias/enthusiasm arguments are compelling.
Are people around here feeling nervous/confident at this point? I can’t imagine either side being too happy about going into election day with this sort of picture.
