Winner Of The Presidential Election is....

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
601

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]smh23 wrote:
Well, we’ll see how Silver’s model does this time around. If I had to bet I’d guess it does a pretty good job on the state-by-state. But time will tell.[/quote]

Wow smh you really, really have to drop that junk science you’re hanging your hat on. Seriously, there is no history there at all. The man called one of the easiest elections in modern times. Anyone who knew anything about politics knew that McCain was going to blow that one big time. In fact, the only person that I know of who called McCain was Mufasa. (Sorry pal I had to mention it again. But soon it will be over either way and I won’t mention it anymore)

Just forget about Silver, he is trying to pump up the obama supporters with fantasy games. Really move on to something that has some teeth. [/quote]

Well, he’s in line with every other forecast model I’ve seen this election, including rcp’s no toss-up function.

Also, the point is not that he called Obama the winner-yes, that was an easy one–but that he called even the closest states correctly (except for Indiana, in which he overestimated McCain’s chances).

But yeah, anyway, SIlver is nothing like the be-all and end-all. Though I have been told that, when it comes to simply being the best mathematician in the game, he’s the guy to watch.

In the end, just look at the swing state polls and take a guess. That’s all anybody’s doing anyway. Who knows how much the “enthusiasm gap” will skew the numbers on the actual day? A point, two, three?

I certainly have no idea.

602

http://www2.tbo.com/news/news/2012/oct/27/7/romney-brings-pledge-of-big-change-to-pasco-ar-546720/

Romney filling a Tampa HS Football stadium.

Report says 15k…

Nope, no momentum anymore

603

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
http://www2.tbo.com/news/news/2012/oct/27/7/romney-brings-pledge-of-big-change-to-pasco-ar-546720/

Romney filling a Tampa HS Football stadium.

Report says 15k…

Nope, no momentum anymore[/quote]

Momentum implies acceleration: that gains are being made in he polls. After Denver, Romney had some serious momentum.

Neither candidate seems to have momentum at this point. The polls are settled and are oscillating back and forth around an apparent mean. That’s what the momentum thing meant to say, and it isn’t really all the controversial.

604

FYI, the Des Moines Register apparently hasn’t endorsed a Republican since 1972, but is endorsing Romney in 2012:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121027/OPINION03/121026026/The-Register-endorsement-Mitt-Romney-offers-a-fresh-economic-vision?Frontpage&nclick_check=1

605

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
FYI, the Des Moines Register apparently hasn’t endorsed a Republican since 1972, but is endorsing Romney in 2012:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121027/OPINION03/121026026/The-Register-endorsement-Mitt-Romney-offers-a-fresh-economic-vision?Frontpage&nclick_check=1[/quote]

EDIT: interestingly, this comes days after the DMR had its off-the-record interview with Obama.

606

[quote]smh23 wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]smh23 wrote:
Well, we’ll see how Silver’s model does this time around. If I had to bet I’d guess it does a pretty good job on the state-by-state. But time will tell.[/quote]

Wow smh you really, really have to drop that junk science you’re hanging your hat on. Seriously, there is no history there at all. The man called one of the easiest elections in modern times. Anyone who knew anything about politics knew that McCain was going to blow that one big time. In fact, the only person that I know of who called McCain was Mufasa. (Sorry pal I had to mention it again. But soon it will be over either way and I won’t mention it anymore)

Just forget about Silver, he is trying to pump up the obama supporters with fantasy games. Really move on to something that has some teeth. [/quote]

Well, he’s in line with every other forecast model I’ve seen this election, including rcp’s no toss-up function.[/quote]

Here is some of the junk political science that you like to follow but it has Romney wininng.

[quote]Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.

Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.[/quote]

They have a model that has been correct since 1980. How old was Silver in 1980? Anyway, it is still junk political science and no one should pay anymore attention to it than left wing zealots like Silver.

Big deal! You think that was difficult in 2008? LOL…You have just not been around long enough to appreciate good political prognostication. Every aspect of 08 was easy to call. He should have called 50 out of 50. Or as Obama would say 57 out of 57.

Allow me to rephrase it for you. For being the best left wing political hack who is trying to sway an election he’s the guy to watch.

[quote]In the end, just look at the swing state polls and take a guess. That’s all anybody’s doing anyway. Who knows how much the “enthusiasm gap” will skew the numbers on the actual day? A point, two, three?

I certainly have no idea.[/quote]

Yet, you keep referring back to Silver as if he has a crystal ball because he called the 08 Presidential election.

How about we make a bet right now on how close Silver will be?

607

smh,

The following article shows the actual chart on how close this model has been since 1980 in each election. They called every one correctly and in fact were 90% accurate in calling the actual electoral vote over 8 Presidential elections!

Here you go suck in some of this junk science which trumps your junk science:

608

[quote]smh23 wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
http://www2.tbo.com/news/news/2012/oct/27/7/romney-brings-pledge-of-big-change-to-pasco-ar-546720/

Romney filling a Tampa HS Football stadium.

Report says 15k…

Nope, no momentum anymore[/quote]

Momentum implies acceleration: that gains are being made in he polls. After Denver, Romney had some serious momentum.

Neither candidate seems to have momentum at this point. The polls are settled and are oscillating back and forth around an apparent mean. That’s what the momentum thing meant to say, and it isn’t really all the controversial.[/quote]

[i]Romney’s one-point lead is a slight increase from Saturday, when the candidates were tied. But a deep dive into the numbers paint the picture of a president whose approval is on the decline and is struggling to pick up votes with Independents.

Consider the following numbers:

Obama's approval-to-disapproval rating sits at just 44-52, which is actually worse than Gallup's tracking on Saturday.

Obama is losing the favorability battle, which has been a key strength for him throughout the campaign. His favorable-to-unfavorable rating sits underwater at 46-50.

Romney’s favorable rating, on the other hand, is a positive 49-45.

Romney leads the self-identified Independent vote by an astounding 16 points. Among this crucial group, Obama’s approval-to-disapproval is 33-60, and Romney’s favorability is 53-37.[/i]

PPP isn’t some right wing crazy town poll either.

609

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
FYI, the Des Moines Register apparently hasn’t endorsed a Republican since 1972, but is endorsing Romney in 2012:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121027/OPINION03/121026026/The-Register-endorsement-Mitt-Romney-offers-a-fresh-economic-vision?Frontpage&nclick_check=1[/quote]

EDIT: interestingly, this comes days after the DMR had its off-the-record interview with Obama.[/quote]

Wait, what? Off the record interview? As a candidate, isn’t he supposed to want to do on-the-record interviews, if any?

Signed,

Confused Reader

610

[quote]smh23 wrote:

Momentum implies acceleration [/quote]

No, it doesn’t. Momentum is the product of the mass of an object and the time rate of change of that object’s position, which is known as velocity. It can be thought of as a representation of the force required to reduce the velocity of the object to zero. Now, gaining momentum implies acceleration, since in a system without varying mass, you will need a change in velocity, but you can and will have momentum without any acceleration.

In political terms, this means that both candidates have momentum, but are not necessarily gaining or losing momentum depending on how you look at it. Obama has definitely lost momentum in the last weeks, but has not given up and is not being completely dominated and so his momentum would be lower then a few weeks ago, but not zero. Romney has surged in the polls, but they have stabilized for the most part over the last week or so and so he has a significant amount of momentum, in that it will take a good deal of effort on Obama’s part to beat him, but he may not be gaining momentum, which would mean further boosts in his poll numbers.

611

[quote]Dr.Matt581 wrote:

In political terms, this means that both candidates have momentum, but are not necessarily gaining or losing momentum depending on how you look at it.

[/quote]

Double take…

612

The ‘anyone but Obama’ vote:

http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/28/wapo-poll-republicans-ready-to-elect-mitt-romney/

613

Well, SM:

You probably know that I still don’t agree.

To me, that first debate was such a “game changer”, because it said to many Conservatives and Undecided Voters: “…Wow!..this guy really CAN beat Obama…”.

THAT is where the “enthusiam” is coming from…and the numbers have not looked back since.

I just fail to believe that the “Anybody BUT Romney” Conservatives have changed THAT much since the Primaries (because, as Zeb has pointed out, Romney has actually moved much more toward the Middle);

What HAS changed is that less than a week before the Election they see someone who can beat the President.

Mufasa

614

And just to reiterate:

I think that the Conservative Base has been fired up and ready to Vote this election since the President was elected.

Mufasa

615

As long as Obama is out of there, I don’t care why the enthusiasm is there. GooooOOOO Romney!

616

=

617

[quote]Sloth wrote:
As long as Obama is out of there, I don’t care why the enthusiasm is there. GooooOOOO Romney![/quote]

My point exactly, Sloth.

Mufasa

618

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Well, SM:

You probably know that I still don’t agree.

To me, that first debate was such a “game changer”, because it said to many Conservatives and Undecided Voters: “…Wow!..this guy really CAN beat Obama…”.

THAT is where the “enthusiam” is coming from…and the numbers have not looked back since.

I just fail to believe that the “Anybody BUT Romney” Conservatives have changed THAT much since the Primaries (because, as Zeb has pointed out, Romney has actually moved much more toward the Middle);

What HAS changed is that less than a week before the Election they see someone who can beat the President.

Mufasa[/quote]

Speaking for myself, Romney was not my first, second, third or even forth pick in the primaries. But he has made some great speeches and has articulated conservative principles well:

‘We don’t belong to government, the government belongs to us.’

‘America cannot continue to lead the family of nations around the world if we suffer the collapse of family here at home.’

‘What makes America the greatest nation in the world is the heart of the American people: hardworking, innovative, risk-taking, God-loving, family-oriented American people.’

‘Ronald Reagan was a president of strength. His philosophy was a philosophy of strength - a strong military, a strong economy and strong families.’

‘Dependency is death to initiative, to risk-taking and opportunity. It’s time to stop the spread of government dependency and fight it like the poison it is.’

‘The invisible hand of the market always moves faster and better than the heavy hand of government.’

‘Our plans protect freedom and opportunity, and our blueprint is the Constitution of the United States.’

619

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[/quote]

pwned

620

^

That one cracked me up. Nice find.