Remeber Oscar Perez and his helicopter attack. Sad news.
And in case anyone had any doubts. The Maduro regime and the drug cartels are the same people. A couple of his nephews getting sentenced on cocaine smuggling charges in December.
And things just keep getting worse for people there.
Ugh! Itâs sad. I was there when things werenât like this and by in large, I liked it. Unfortunately, it was also during the worst natural disaster in the countryâs history and nearly died there, but thatâs beside the point. The people were wonderful, everybody was so nice to me. And you could get a giant, mean steak for a song.
So what happens when the dust settles in Venezuela? A coup? Or does Maduro crack down and last decades like the Castros?
Iâm guessing the starving will lead to organized violence sooner rather than later.
I donât know if youâve been following, but their oil production is collapsing. Thatâs going to make the humanitarian situation there infinitely worse. Maduro has put a bunch of the top oil management in jail, and has installed military generals in their place.
As an aside, I couldnât help but remember this.
Quote from the WSJ last week.
Crude oil production fell 12% in December from the month before, according to government figures released Thursday. Over all of 2017, output was down 29%, among the steepest national declines in recent history, driven by mismanagement and under investment at the state oil company, say industry observers and oilmen.
The drop is deeper than that experienced by Iraq after the 2003 war thereâwhen the amount of crude pumped fell 23%âor by Russia during the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
âIn Venezuela, there is no war, nor strike,â said EvanĂĄn Romero, a former director of government-run PetrĂłleos de Venezuela SA. âWhatâs left of the oil industry is crumbling on its own.â
Oil is critical to Venezuelaâs state-led economy. Petroleum sales bring in 95% of the countryâs foreign-currency earnings, so declining output will make it harder for the government to import everything from machinery to food and medicine.
Over the past four years, the countryâs economy has shrunk by about 40% and inflation has surgedâtopping 2,600% last year, according to the National Assembly. Nearly one in four factories didnât reopen after Christmas, according to a local industry association.
Malnutrition is spreading among the young and elderly, while health officials report a resurgence of illnesses ranging from malaria to diphtheria. Meanwhile social stability is fraying. At least four people have died during outbreaks of looting in recent weeks.
The government is already resorting to barterâseeking to trade diamonds and other valuablesâin an effort to bring in sorely needed supplies as President NicolĂĄs Maduro prepares for elections this year.
This week, the state oil companyâs new chief, National Guard Gen. Manuel Quevedo, blamed the production downturn on sabotage and terrorist attacks by the opposition. He didnât offer any evidence. He said output has stabilized and will grow to 2.5 million barrels a day this year.
Most analysts, however, expect Venezuelaâs production to continue falling. By this yearâs end, output could fall to 1.3 million barrels a day, according to Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan energy expert at Rice University.
In December, daily production fell by 216,000 barrels to 1.6 millionâthe 15th consecutive monthly decline. In the last 12 months, Venezuelan output fell by 649,000 barrels a day.
The decline has been exacerbated by a management purge at state-run PdVSA by Mr. Maduro that has paralyzed the oil giant. Seventy senior managers have been jailed on graft allegations in the past three months. Generals with no industry experience have been named to run the firm.
I remember that too! Wasnât that back when Big Oil was making âtoo much profitâ?
When Chavez was nationalizing the oil companies I was in a microeconomics class at the time. My professor asked the class what we thought would happen with Venezuela.
Me: âcorruption, starvation, stagnation, mass exodus and deathâ
Her: âWhat would you base that prediction on?â
Me: âUSSR, China, Cuba, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, North Korea⊠to name a few.â
Her: âThis time will be different, they have the oil after all. Itâs a very interesting experiment.â
Iâm thinking about giving my old professor a call. Lol
Yeah. She says a lot of things. Waters for President 2020. Warren can be her VP.
You should! It would be funny, except I doubt she has changed her mind. Weâve had professors at UC Berkley and elsewhere teaching that North Koreaâs problems were caused by the US. The situation in North Korea isnât all that bad. Weâve all just been hearing capitalist propaganda. Makes you wonder if the recent NK soldier who ran across the DMZ being shot at, starving and with a GI tract full of worms was just part of a capitalist propaganda stunt.
I was transitioning from L to C back when Chavez took power, and I recall the glowing articles Iâd read about this transformative figure. Not just on the crackpot liberal sites I was still tuned into either. Mainstream outlets predicted utopia too.
From Reason TV, if you havenât seen it. 4 minutes.
A lot of real smart people, and beautiful celebrities still love it.
And this one, for anybody who is interested in an overview of how this went down. 7 minutes.
I see things getting worse before they get better. The key to getting Maduro out is having the military turn on him. I have heard pangs to that affect, but nothing concrete.
My prediction is things will get more desperate to the point of society breaking down. The military then may or may not act on Maduro.