I predict I don’t have a fucking clue what’s going to happen. I have what I hope to happen, but this year is so fucked up, anything can happen. I know it’s going to be crazy and the allegations will fly. Nancy Pelosi could end up winning…
My gut is that Trump wins with a surprisingly high percentage of the Black and Hispanic vote. My gut also thought the Cowboys had a shot at the Super Bowl this year.
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It is not really a “narrative” when it is exactly what happened last time, is it?
I realize I lack a liberal arts degree and all of the policy wisdom imparted during the acquisition process, but it seems to me that the forces and reasons behind that phenomenon will be equally if not more present this time around.
There is no reason for me to even announce my Trump support on social media, let alone to someone who calls me up out of the blue. All risk, no reward. This is much more true now than four years ago. I’d rather not comment on politics and continue seeing my nieces than announce anything publicly and risk the family separation treatment my sister in law has given my mom and other outspoken conservatives in the family.
I suspect many have similar concerns about the reactions of unhinged liberals, both in and out of their personal circles.
But hey, what does an uneducated goon like me know compared to a liberal arts major who can repeat what they hear on CNN?
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Was it? IIRC, the states Trump flipped were within the polling errors when we look at a weighted average of polls like on 538. Additionally, 538 had Trump winning probability at about 30%. You will win about 1/3 elections with those odds (a bit less).
I am interested by this. I hear from Trump supporters two things that are contradictory. I have heard both of these:
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In traveling across the country (or states) the Trump signs/hats/etc… outnumber the Biden signs by a substantial margin. The visible support for Trump, I have heard, is far more impressive than it is for Biden. This, I have been told, points to substantial support for Trump’s reelection and also supports the theory that the polls are fake.
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I have also heard what you wrote. That Trump supporters tend to not advertise their support, for fear they will be criticized/judged, or similar. This even goes to polls, that they would not risk vocalizing their support even in an anonymous poll.
I don’t know if you mean me by this, but I was certainly not a liberal arts major. I am a scientist with a PhD in chemistry and a BS in biochemistry.
I predict we have record setting voter turnout, and trump publicly takes credit for it, while at the same time using it as evidence of voter fraud.
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Before or after he tries to pardon himself? Need specifics for your prediction to have any merit.
The two things you listed aren’t contradictory at all. It just reflects individual choice. We’re it not for my woke sister in law’s despicable treatment of my mother, I’d have no problem being just as public with my Trump support as my mom was.
As it stands, I value my relationship with my nieces more than any other factor in that equation, making me a stereotypical “silent” Trump supporter (outside of PWI of course).
As far as polls go, 10 years ago I’d have no problem answering honestly. In an age of doxxing, physical threats and social threats I will once again err on the side of not telling whoever calls my house what my politics are, how many guns I have in the house or any other information that can only harm, not help me.
Some, like my mom, give no fucks and fly their Trump flags high.
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Claims fraud, accepts defeat, pardons himself, claims to have brought about a golden age of democracy as evidenced by the record voting turnout. Then in his 10pg picture book memoir about his presidency, claims fraud again.
In that order.
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I swore not to trust the polls again after 2016 because the results were so far off. I thought that Hillary had it in the bag I didn’t even watch election night until just before bed. So I don’t know what’s going to happen but I want to try an experiment.
I have a poll, but I am not going to tell you what it says. I am going to give you the break down of the demographics and let y’all guess who wins what and by how much. It’s an average poll asking your view on some issues and who you support.
I am going to give you the break down of the demographics and then let the guessing begin. After, I will provide the actual poll to see how right you were…
If you happen to know this particular poll already try not to ruin it for those who do not.
So the poll demographics are such:
- The area covered is Pennsylvania 792 (33%), Michigan 792 (33%) and Wisconsin 792 (33%).
- Break down by gender is 1224 (51%) female and 1176 (49%) male.
- Political affiliation: 888 (37%) Democrats, 720 (30%) Republicans, 792 (33%) “Independants”.
- Racial breakdown: 2016 (84%) White, 216 (9%) Black, 96 (4%) Hispanic, 96 (4%) “Other”
-Age range: ages 18-29 456 (19%), ages 30-45 576 (24%), ages 45-65 864 (36%), ages 65+ 480 (20%)
Categories: Presidential Race (obviously), Presidential Approval, Corona, Economy, Direction of country, Healthcare, SCOTUS, Abortion.
This is a standard political poll. It asks about the President and some normal issues. The challenge is to guess, only based on the information provided on how the poll skewed on the Presidential race and other political issues.
You can pick as many or as few categories (listed above) to guess on, but President is the main one.
Your job is to guess who wins and by how much just based on this info. Later I will post the poll to see who was the closest to reality.
Edit: Forgot categories…
The biggest issue is:
Did they just call up people in these states and this is how it broke down? How did they determine this was representative?
You have all the demographic information available, guess how it turned out.
I am guessing the poll gave DEMs a lead. Not sure the actual results.
It’s not looking good for Trump.
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Lets say that dozens of polls being wrong twice in a row, that far apart would be unprecedented but I know no one without an agenda who believes they are even remotely accurate
If Trump wins, fuck the media (who are the primary commissioners of these things) for corrupting such a fundamental and proven process. Fucknuts.
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I do agree with this. Where I live, Trump supporters would certainly feel less inclined to vocalize their views. I currently live in one of the most liberal spots in the country (the Bay Area). There are many factors overall:
In urban areas, there is a much, much higher population density yet far fewer political signs. People just don’t really broadcast it. I don’t. Part of that is my job in academia, in that I feel it’s inappropriate for me to do so. But part of it is just how things are. Where I live, there are no Trump signs but even Biden signs are not prevalent. Most just don’t feel like telling everyone what they believe.
In rural areas (I lived in central PA for more than a decade as an adult) there are political signs EVERYWHERE. These tend to be republican leaning, and one would be very surprised that PA might go in the democrat column nearly solely based on Philly and, to a lesser extent, Pittsburgh. You drive across the state, and you would see Trump signs dominate 20-1 at least, but in the urban areas political signs just don’t show up to the same extent.
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Are the urban voters even allowed to post political signs outside of their quarters?
This, as a non-Trump supporter, gives me more hope. Sure, lightning can strike once, but the chances of pulling off an improbable upset 2x in a row is slim. Again, to use the sports analogy, if a heavy underdog pulls an upset once, okay. That doesn’t increase the odds of it happening again.
Here’s more evidence to support my “neurological cocktail” theory (since it’s right wing nut job Shapiro, PWI “fact checkers” please let me know if this is fake news):
(go to the 3 minute mark if I didn’t link the time correctly)
The funny (sad) part is Uncle Joe’s wife mouthing “Trump” so that Joe remembers who he’s running against.
