The dude just crushed his COVID infection. It could work in his favor as a sign of a “strong leader”. I just think his campaign focused too much on attacking Biden with not enough MAGA rhetoric and (mostly) false promises.
FWIW, a Trump win increases the probability of me benefitting financially since I don’t live in the West so I’m not being biased here. #MAGA
But that’s the issue. He’s only 4 years older than Trump, in better physical shape, and it would be hard to argue now (IMO) he’s in worse mental shape. I’m not sure how anyone watches Trump rallies or the debates and watches Biden and comes to the conclusion that Trump is the one in control of his noggin.
I fully agree it would be a huge issue if his opponent wasn’t also super old and in control of his thoughts. Trump can’t get through an interview with Leslie Stahl without having a temper tantrum and leaving. Joe’s old as shit but far more stable than the other old as shit guy.
If Trump was Mitt Romney or Barack Obama absolutely age and mental condition of Joe would be a far stronger argument for him/against Joe.
I dunno man. Biden looks seriously spaced out and not using his words with normal inflections pertaining to certain subjects even though he’s saying the right words during the debates. If you told me he was reading from a teleprompter or has some magical mic hidden in his ear telling him what to say I would probably buy it.
I said to @dt79 previously -similar to how they shoot up athletes before the big game with painkillers (stimulants also before they were deemed “illegal” lol), I’m convinced Uncle Joe gets some sort of neurological “cocktail” before the longer, protracted events.
Isn’t the technology for this already available? (good point, hadn’t thought of that lol)
I dunno. Gotta ask the tech guys. I’ve read some really stupid conspiracy theories that he’s wearing some kind of special contact lenses that serve as teleprompters. He’s the Terminator now lol.
The contact lenses actually have his address written on them for when he wanders off. That’s a true story, I read it on Breitbart.
I’d agree if we didn’t have 2016 to look back on and covid potentially messing up the voting lines.
However I would not be shocked to see Georgia go blue. I think t has a better chance of going than Texas, but I almost put Texas on my “flipped states” list just for the longshot shock.
Check the Vegas books. I’ll bet anything you can put something down on it there lol. You can bet on damn near anything, made up or not.
I actually fully agree with you on the perceptions. I think the only reason it’s not a sizeable negative for him is the fact he is facing Trump. Like Trump facing HRC in 2016, some things that would have been a bigger negative in “normal” election years weren’t. Only this time I think it plays to Biden instead of Trump.
I didn’t say they don’t exist. I only said that I don’t think they’re going to turn the election for Trump like they did last time.
I would have a very hard time saying that there are more of those voters this year than last time. At least not proportionately.
Apparently this is the point we’ve reached, as a nation.
Where only a landslide result can keep us on somewhat normative footing, while any other result means what only God knows.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner
Kanye’s here. Andrew Cuomo too. No Pelosi.
SAD!
I predict that the people who have been staggeringly off of the mark for at least the last 5 years will continue to be that way.
I predict that more people have been put off by four years of brazen media lies than there are people who buy into all of the nonsense narratives. It is now clear that Trump is not a Russian agent, a Klansmen, a rape supporter or a budding generalissimo with president for life aspirations.
I predict that the people who eagerly bought into all of the yellow journalism and outright fabrications will be shocked and surprised to find out that very few people see the world that way once you get off of Twitter.
I predict that the recent riots and their relationship to the pandemic, coupled with the heavier lockdown hand of Democrats will matter more to voters than any white supremacist dictator boogeymen CNN and the NYT can plant in the impressionable heads of people ready to believe anything bad about Trump.
I predict a Trump victory followed by a ridiculous pageant of desperation where we get asked to pretend that a bunch of shady mail-in voting shenanigans are not, in fact, shenanigans.
Oh, and I also predict more riots from weak and stupid people, easily fooled by media narratives and Hollywood actors.
There’s also this:
During a debate or town hall? That’s pretty conspiracy theory. Using a magical mic during a debate would be more trouble than it’s worth. He’s responding to Trump in real time. Answering questions in real time. Someone is going to listen to the question and immediately feed him every word and Joe is going to be so smooth listening and then repeating that it’s not noticeable. Someone is going to listen to Trump say something and then immediately resp
Politicians certainly use teleprompters at various times on the campaign trail, speeches, whatever. But I’m having a hard time thinking that he’s using technology during town halls/debates which are so fast paced it would probably be obvious and cause the person to stumble left and right.
The idea about the neurological cocktail makes more sense but who knows. If that is the case then we need to give one to Trump so he can make the type of sense Biden makes. Maybe if he was juiced up he could make it through an interview without crying. Or be in a rally and talk about what he’s going to do for the country.
The debate. The teleprompter and mic comment was just hyperbole to illustrate my earlier points.
Like I said I don’t want to say it’s impossible but if someone can hear a question formulate an answer tell that answer to Joe Joe can listen to it and then repeat it verbatim without someone knowing well…that’s probably more impressive than just answering a debate question itself. The idea of responding to what someone you don’t control (Trumps real time comments) and all of this without people knowing would be quite the operation to pull off.
I think a lot of us younger people on here who are undoubtedly a bit more quick than Joe at his age couldn’t do this without it being noticeable. I think a lot of this is because Trump’s team were hopeful he would look much worse than Trump. When he looked much better the answer has been “that can’t be the real Joe he must be cheating!” To me Trump has been the one flailing to offer a compelling case for anything and the one who looks confused and out of it. Though Joe definitely has some moments where he looks out of it and his answers don’t make sense as well.
But that’s just me I’m sure Trump supporters are saying “look at the way he attacks sleepy Joe he’s on a roll!”
Here is my map. I gave Trump a victory if he was trailing by less than 5 points to Biden. I feel overcoming 5 points is pretty damn tough (and Trump did not overcome 5 points in 2016 in his upset). Corona makes this year unusual, but Corona going to have to do some magic to get past my lowest Biden favoring state of Pennsylvania (Biden leads by 5.5 according to 538).
Biden 279 in my worst case for Biden map, but it is 2020, so who the hell knows.
I think one of the big differences this time is that the Dems didn’t believe it was possible for Trump to win and no one took his candidacy seriously. Despite making many of the same mistakes this time, I don’t think they are repeating that one.
Maybe not, however, using Biden as a trojan horse for their agenda is kind of sick. The man clearly is not with it, and by using him as the Dem nominee, it’s akin to elder abuse.
I think that is the “worst case” for Biden - a narrow victory. I think the likely path is a commanding one.
What’s interesting is the whole “fake polls” narrative especially rampant among Trump supporters and foxnews fans. It’s a blessing and a curse. A curse because it fuels the whole “everything is fake unless it suits me” obsession we’re seeing with less educated folks across the country, but I think it also will motivate the left on this election because many are still wary after the Clinton loss when she was projected to win.
However, polls are quite good and quite predictive but not 100%. It’s like if you’re favorite football team was the underdog and they ended up winning, it doesn’t now mean that odds are fake and sports books don’t know what they’re taking about - it’s simply that the most likely outcome does not occur every time.
I will sometimes torture myself and read the comments after foxnews stories. I think those that post there are in for quite a shocker next week. They don’t understand the difference between anecdotes and data. “My neighborhood has only Trump signs and me and all my friends are voting for Trump. The polls are wrong and he’ll win in a landslide”. Yes, he would win mayor of your rural midwest town, but he is trailing substantially in both the popular vote and the majority of the swing states.
I think the biggest fear for DEMs should be that their supporters don’t turn out. Corona may have an impact here that impacts DEMs more than the GoP. Although the DEMs have an advantage in early voting, so who knows?
@H_factor said it right IMO. We could have a narrow Trump or narrow Biden win, or a large Biden win. Those seem to be the possibilities that are possible to occur. A Trump landslide isn’t happening.
