I think many others are overcorrecting for polling in 2016 (a lot of it is not understanding the polls in the first place), but 538 had Trump with a 23% chance of winning PA and the polling average had Trump down 3.7 points. He won by less than a percent (~0.7). He is currently down 5.3%. He needs to out perform his noteworthy upset in 2016 by almost a whole percentage point to win PA. It is possible, but not easy for sure.
Basically what I am saying is Trump needs way more than the polling error to win.
In my view of this, Biden is throwing millions of essential workers under the bus every time he says Not enough has been done.
We all saw where Biden stood on the issue when it was making landfall. He stood there side by side with a bunch of other idiots like Pelosi and Schumer, and instead of uniting, they started name calling and looking for ways to undermine and Monday morning quarterback.
Trump did as much as the federal government is supposed to do. After that, it’s a states rights issue. Here’s the guidance-now go do what your states constitution allows for.
And similar to Warren’s promise to solve the veterans suicide crisis-What’s he waiting for? If he has a solution to this, why is he trying to call shots from the peanut gallery?
We will find out on the last part in a few days but yes statistically speaking she was awful compared to Biden.
He’s polled way further ahead than her in terms of approval/disapproval. HRC was hated (even by some Dems) far more than Biden has ever been. I’m definitely thinking Biden is going to have more votes than she did no doubt. I think by a huge margin actually.
Using RCP right now Biden is going in 50.8 and 44 favorable/non fave. Clinton was 41.8 and 54.4. Those are really big margins. I’m not sure we will ever see an election in our lifetime where two politicians were as despised as Clinton/Trump.
Trump may very well win re-election…but it’s not going to be because people hate Biden like they did Clinton.
I think this is right based on anecdote. I know a some center left folks who voted Johnson in 2016 as they didn’t like Hillary. They’re voting Biden this year.
Lol. I’m not on blue team. I’ve been unaffiliated since I registered to vote. I think the red/blue team model is terrible for America.
I think you may have missed the sarcasm there. Point was Fox News has been slamming Democrats’ energy policy since forever. So, most rural voters (who tend to favor Fox News) shouldn’t be hearing that Democrats want to move away from fossil fuels for the first time at the debates.
Me too. A dichotomy like this makes it too easy for people to just check out and become a color coded Muppet. Don’t have to think anymore! I can just listen to this party that tickles my ears!
Yes they have. But it’s one thing when it is literally their job to talk shit.
It’s a whole other when the man running for president tells you the exact levers of power he will use to punish an industry. Especially when he has a recent history of exactly that.
There was a kid in high school who used to do this. He would go over to one guy and say “Marcus said you’re a pussy and the he’s gonna kick your ass…”. Then stand back and watch the fireworks.
I think most Americans will defer to their cable news station of choice before considering the actual words that come out of the “other” candidate’s mouth. All politicians lie after all, right?
They’re masters of saying what they mean without actually telling you.
I always refer to Ed Rendell’s talk about revenues. He’d say “As a state, we need to increase revenues. Ladedadeda… Revenues” , and on ond on.
People hear that and say “Yeah! Revenues! We DO need to increase revenues!” not realizing that while they’re thinking “I’m gonna get a bigger paycheck!” ole Ed was talking about Tax revenues. His side of the books.
So when Biden throws out some word salad with a number sandwich like “I’m gonna create 6 million new jobs!” he’s not talking about 6 million more, he’s talking about destroying an industry and trying to replace 6 million jobs.
That type of nuance is usually lost on the general population.
From the peer-reviewed article: The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates.
Source: Bilinski A, Emanuel EJ. COVID-19 and Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries. JAMA. Published online October 12, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.20717
Suppose I should actually make a prediction since that’s the ostensible purpose of this thread.
Biden wins the popular vote by 5.5 million and wins the electoral college 278-260.
Edit to add how I got to my numbers. I started with the 2016 electoral college map, then gave Biden WI, MI, and PA. The other battleground states were too close to give to Biden. I think the Trump vote is STILL being under-counted, plus I think team Trump will have some luck getting ballots tossed in close states giving him a further edge. Pulled the popular vote number out of my ass.
Been on 538? Exactly their prediction. I think it is a bit optimistic on Biden, but the only reasonable landslide possibility is for Biden IMO. Trump could still win.
I’d be interested to know the thought process behind that. If you assume polls are off to the degree they were in 2016… I just can’t see that electoral map happening. Implicit in your guess is a belief that pollsters have “fixed” the issues that lead to under-counting Trump supporters in 2016, or maybe I’m being presumptuous?
Speaking of 538, just wanted to call out this line from an article of theirs I was just reading. I would definitely hedge my bets if you’re going off of their model.
A Trump win remains plausible. And note that, with his 10 percent chance, our model is specifically referring to a legitimate win; we do not account for what we call “extraconstitutional shenanigans,” by Trump or anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.
