US Presidential Election Predictions

[Aragorn]

@pat

People have tied their very existence to this guy, I do not know another president who has people’s existence ride on their own. This is a phenomenon on both sides

Obama. So many people on both sides were adamantly and irreconcilably one one team and Obama was either the Antichrist or the ‘savior’. This was incredibly obvious to me and others.

It’s not different this time, except he’s “your team’s guy” and so you feel like it is. As for whether Trump has been talked about more than any president in modern history, I don’t know for sure. Maybe so, I’d have to look at it and I really just don’t care that much. I DO know you’re more sensitive to it than you were with Obama.

@pat

Oh? What part is that? What did you find lacking?

There is a cataclysmically large abyssal gulf between what the study put out and “subsidiary of Twitter”. A statement of that magnitude needs more than that study. A lot more. The study showed that the journalists studied had insular groups. That is NOT THE SAME THING as being a subsidiary of Twitter. It is also not the same thing as “lying”, although they may share components.

@pat

So you agree that journalism is, for all intents and purposes, dead, you just disagree on why. This doesn’t square with what you said above.
I said, here is the reason and here is evidence of it. You said, that’s not the reason, it’s this reason, but provided no evidence for it

Sure it squares, if by “square with it” you mean is compatible with the notion that reporting outlets are doing more hot takes and commentary than well sources journalism. They’re not contradictory. I am providing one of many alternative possibilities. You pretty conclusively stated in the other thread that you believe your hypothesis is the only one that can explain all the facts. It isn’t. I am providing one of several alternatives.

@pat

But you agree that journalism is dead.
In the end, all that matters is that you know journalism is dead, it’s a cesspool of lies and we both know it.

I don’t believe journalism is dead. You can still find it. I believe, rather, that mainstream outlets are allowing shoddy work to be put out, and that the standards for journalism have fallen significantly and “hot takes” and commentators are taking the front seat sadly. Dead implies that it is killed off entirely. I do agree with the thrust of your major point that reliability is something of a problem. The other point is that people must WANT to find real journalism. And it is easier now than ever to live in any info bubble you like.

@pat

You’re a tough person to figure out, in that I can’t tell what’s important to you and what is not

Part of what might make me seem hard to figure out is I refuse to be a team player. I don’t want bullshit from the right or left. I will call out things I see as bullshit either way - we have just had a lot of it from the POTUS lately. I may be wrong, I may be mistaken, but that’s what I aim for. Probably part of the reason I may seem hard to figure out is that I won’t spare “my team” when they pull some shit.

I had a LOT of criticism for Obama through his tenure. We were on the same side more than not during those years.

We likely value the same things but in somewhat different order. Actually, I don’t know if it’s all that incredibly different, but I won’t spare any side. We currently disagree on what is acceptable behavior (not necessarily policy). A head of state is more than a policy conduit in my mind. Policy is undoubtedly crucial though.

@pat

Like, where are the culture wars and violence on your metric?
What about civil liberties? Do civil liberties matter to you or do you scale it against perceived threats?

Everything has to scale to some degree–even free speech: you can’t falsely yell fire in a crowded theater for instance. Outside of that though I believe civil liberties are essential. Critical. I would rather err on the side of too much than not enough.

Violence is broad. Like…what? Violence is bad. I mean… No idea what you mean.

[zecarlo]

@pat

Oh? What part is that? What did you find lacking?

You didn’t even read it so what’s the point?

@pat

I am suspecting you didn’t really read the study.

We know you didn’t.

@pat

I’ll let you answer before I say anything else.

Let’s hope he doesn’t answer.

[zecarlo]

@pat

Just look up how many hours have been spent on Trump vs. any other president

I wonder if Obama talked as much about Trump as Trump talked about him. Of course, the Trump cultists like pat forget these things.

[NickViar]

@zecarlo

I wonder if Obama talked as much about Trump as Trump talked about him.

Does anyone talk about Trump as much as Trump talks about Trump?

[zecarlo]

Note that I used the past tense.

[treco]

Why do you refute Pat line by line?
Doesn’t he have you blocked?

Just curious.

[dt79]

@pat

Can we pretend at least to be on the same page?

Yes, I did say the media went overboard in my post.

@pat

Uh, you made my point for me. Exactly.

No, my point was that everyone in the wold knows ALL your modern day Presidents. If you read the rest of my posts, you’ll see that what they do affects the rest of the world all the way to S.E Asia.

@pat

And worse you get people who hang on every tweet, somehow not realizing tweets are not policy and policy is happening, loads of it. So who cares about the tweets? Apparently too many people.
They freak out about his tweets and while they are distracted, he is enacting policy. I don’t know how intentional it is, but I have to believe it’s at least partially intentional. It’s so obviously easy to do, to distract with a tweet that only a fool wouldn’t use it as a distraction. While the wolves are tearing at the tweet, he’s free to go about his business.

My point was simply that he shouldn’t have been tweeting stupid shit. That’s not how the President of the most powerful country in the world should BEHAVE. You get what I’m saying? It’s about his public image. The press didn’t make him tweet. They just reported his tweets.

Again, they did go overboard but it takes 2 hands to clap.

[dt79]

@pat

Isn’t this a good thing?

Yes, it’s good for me but it’s not good for YOU. You won’t win this trade war especially after his handling of the COVID situation.

[dcb]

Updates:

1. Arizona has certified the election results with Biden as the winner: Arizona certifies election results with Biden, Kelly winning

2. Trump was nice enough to spend 3 million to confirm Biden’s win in Wisconsin after the recount. Trump has now lost Georgia twice and Wisconsin Twice in the same election. A very bigly result: Wisconsin certifies Joe Biden as winner following recount | AP News

3. Since there was no doubt how #'s 1 and 2 would go, this one is probably the most significant. For the first time in years, someone with the words President of the United States in their job title has read a daily intelligence briefing: Biden receives first presidential daily briefing as Arizona certifies his win

Trump doesn't read his intelligence reports, but looks at the graphs, charts,...

[zecarlo]

It’s a public service to anyone who might actually believe pat is not a moron.

And every poster here is either already blocked by him or soon to be blocked.

[NickViar]

Was there a time Trump didn’t talk about Trump?

[zecarlo]

When he was around his father.

[H_factor]

Trump setting the record for number of times one can lose a state.

[H_factor]

The clown show continues. The fraud is so deep Dems made a fake county for Biden to win!

Jonathan Oosting

[ddinante]

@pat

Just look up how many hours have been spent on Trump vs. any other president or any other world leader combined.

It’s important to note: Trump got more media attention because his actions warranted it. “Man bit dog” with so much frequency that even outlandish conduct became routine. That cannot be blamed on the media. The reason Trump got more scrutiny and coverage than Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc combined was because he is a prolific scandal/outrage machine. Giving his outlandish conduct the same coverage as comparatively scandal-free precedents would be negligent. As @Aragorn noted, they are doing their job, just not very well in many cases.

[Mufasa]

@ddinante

It’s important to note: Trump got more media attention because his actions warranted it. “Man bit dog” with so much frequency that even outlandish conduct became routine. That cannot be blamed on the media. The reason Trump got more scrutiny and coverage than Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc combined was because he is a prolific scandal/outrage machine. Giving his outlandish conduct the same coverage as comparatively scandal-free presidents would be negligent. As @Aragorn noted, they are doing their job, just not very well in many cases.

Excellent.

This needs to be emphasized.

[deandre_va_der_saar]

I mean, it should be obvious to anyone, yet you have people like this Pat dude who think it’s just the media out for Trump, FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER.

Blows my mind.

[pat]

@dt79

No, my point was that everyone in the wold knows ALL your modern day Presidents. If you read the rest of my posts, you’ll see that what they do affects the rest of the world all the way to S.E Asia.

And Trump for better or worse is more well known than all of them combined. I am well traveled, I know how a lot of the world thinks about America. I’d be willing to bet that Trump is better known than Michael Jordan in the name recognition game. That cannot be said by any other president, even obama. Well save for possibly the ME. As many drone strikes as Obama dropped on them, I am sure they know his name really well.

@dt79

My point was simply that he shouldn’t have been tweeting stupid shit. That’s not how the President of the most powerful country in the world should BEHAVE. You get what I’m saying? It’s about his public image. The press didn’t make him tweet. They just reported his tweets.

Again, they did go overboard but it takes 2 hands to clap.

Well, that’s you opinion and you are entitled to it, of course. I just disagree. There is no ‘rule book’ on what presidents should and should not do when it comes to speech. There is the expected precedent set forth by others, but there is no rule book. And I didn’t use to like him tweeting either until I saw how effective it was. Every time he tweets the media loses it’s mind. The effect is that the media has been exposed for what they are and more and more people see it everyday.
Now when I say the media lies like most people breath, almost nobody contests it. Or they contest it with qualifications. In other words, Trump killed ‘journalism’, single-handedly. They went after the low hanging fruit, tweets which exposed their lying. Whether intentional or not, Trump’s tweets did that and that was a service because now we know, factually the media lies all the time. They cannot be trusted and more people than ever know that now.

[pat]

@Aragorn

Obama. So many people on both sides were adamantly and irreconcilably one one team and Obama was either the Antichrist or the ‘savior’. This was incredibly obvious to me and others.

Are you actually claiming Obama was more divisive than Trump? That, I am willing to agree with. He was incredibly divisive, but who do you think has better name recognition, world wide?
If we were to count mentions in the media, who would have more Trump or Obama?

@Aragorn

There is a cataclysmically large abyssal gulf between what the study put out and “subsidiary of Twitter”. A statement of that magnitude needs more than that study. A lot more. The study showed that the journalists studied had insular groups. That is NOT THE SAME THING as being a subsidiary of Twitter. It is also not the same thing as “lying”, although they may share components.

So your fact checking my metaphor? I am game. But having a study is better than not having anything, right?

@Aragorn

You pretty conclusively stated in the other thread that you believe your hypothesis is the only one that can explain all the facts. It isn’t. I am providing one of several alternatives.

Well it does explain the facts. I don’t recall saying it’s the only cause, but it is a large contributor and very well could be the biggest. But don’t worry I agree that universities are left-wing mind-melds where if you do not comply you fail. I whole heartily agree that high-education is nearly irreparably damaged and unless you are studying something your actually passionate about, university may not be the best way about securing a livelihood. Especially now in the era of hyper-polarization.

@Aragorn

Dead implies that it is killed off entirely.

We have different definitions of ‘dead’. I am talking about the utter-lack of confidence in the media being so bad, that you cannot rely on them for information. You have to do an enormous amount of work to get the facts on a story. Perhaps ‘dead’ is too strong. It’s certainly on life support to the point at which, if you simply pull the plug it’s gone.
For iexample, CNN is $150 Billion in the hole, and AT&T is trying to off load it. What happens if that cannot and just decide to pull the plug and cut their losses? It’s gone. So okay, we’ll go with being on ‘life-support’ with little chance of recovery. Who is going to sink $150 Billion into saving it? There is no interest, according to the media.

@Aragorn

A head of state is more than a policy conduit in my mind. Policy is undoubtedly crucial though.

Okay, fair enough. So what policies of the Trump admin do you disagree with? Is it just hatred of the superficial, or is there substance behind the criticism?

@Aragorn

Everything has to scale to some degree–even free speech: you can’t falsely yell fire in a crowded theater for instance. Outside of that though I believe civil liberties are essential. Critical. I would rather err on the side of too much than not enough.

Do you believe our first amendment rights are 100% secure and immutable? How do you expect a Biden presidency to secure our constitutional rights according to his proposed plans? Are you expecting his tenure, should he make it, to be good for the country?

@Aragorn

Violence is broad. Like…what? Violence is bad. I mean… No idea what you mean.

Oh comon’ man! You know exactly what I mean. Riots, looting, murder let loose and the governments and local municipalities did nothing. Even Trump didn’t do enough. When it was clear that locals were not going stop the violence he should have used the Insurrection Act. And what are you expecting the next 4 years to look like, seeing as how this behavior has been normalized in our culture?
Is it even important to you? Or do you think the scale is so small as to not matter?

[pat]

Yeonmi Park, if you don’t know who she is, you should. This is her take on the media right now and the state of the union. Maybe she is just the unluckiest person in the world, or perhaps she’s a good meter for measuring the direction of things.
In brief, Yeonmi Park is an escapee from North Korea. She escaped when she was 13 to China where she was enslaved and raped constantly. Then she was able to escape to South Korea, where she was discriminated against and physically abused but was more free than ever before. Finally, she made it to America! Land of the Free, Home of the Brave! Over the summer, she was violently attacked by 2 black women and when she cried for help she was called a white supremacist and a racist by the crowd cheering on her attackers. She’s got a story and she has some views. Her whole family, outside her sister were killed. When I say her whole family, I mean all of it. Cousins, uncles, aunts, etc.
Here’s part of her interview regarding media in the U.S:

North Korea Defector: Opinions on Mainstream News (Pt.3)| Yeonmi Park | INTERNATIONAL | Rubin Report