Trump and "The Graveyard of Empires"

No, the USG doesnt get a damn thing and will not get a damn thing, because, thats not how our leaders do buisness. We come in, go to war, lose lives, spends billions, and then allow the Afghans to do anything they wish. That is why the Chinese have all the mineral and rail contracts, with the Russians and Indians getting the scraps. Just like Iraq, same situation and then the grateful Iraqis gave the major oil contracts to the Russians. We pay in blood, countries fuck us over world wide. Like I said, dumbest government on earth.

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Loppar,
** Thank you for the historical reply.**

IMO, the USG is in the final stages of Lingchi. I think William Lind summed it up best:

“What might change that picture? Nothing will change in DOD until the money simply isn’t there anymore. The news, which is simultaneously good and bad, is that the money soon won’t be there. _Like every previous imperial power, we are bankrupting ourselves_. A trillion dollars here and a trillion dollars there, and soon it adds up to real money. The twin financing mechanisms of piling up debt and debasing the currency can only go on so long. We can already see the night at the end of the tunnel”

“There is no better way to end this series of columns, at least for a while, than to recommend a book. The best book on where America now stands and where it is going is J. H. Elliott’s The Count-Duke of Olivares: A Statesman in an Age of Decline. Olivares was what we would now call the prime minister of Spain in much of the first half of the 17th century. His era saw Spain go from “the only superpower” to a downward plunge that lasted three centuries. Unusually, the more one looks at the details, the more the parallel holds. Then, as now, the root problem was the same: the court was controlled by interests that lived off the nation’s decay. Consider the book Scrooge’s”

VICE: American Wasted $160 Million Trying to Get Afghanistan to Use E-Payments: America Wasted $160 Million Trying to Get Afghanistan to Use E-Payments

Will that be cash, charge, or bribe?

In the US, electronic payments are a given. The overwhelming majority of us get our paychecks electronically through direct deposit. Credit cards, PayPal, and cryptocurrencies run our lives and our bank accounts. The convenience of various cashless systems has made everyday life easier and better.

Of course, it’s not the same in the rest of the world. Especially not in Afghanistan.

The country might be home to America’s longest-running war, but the US has spent more time, energy, and money trying to rebuild Afghanistan than it has spent killing the Taliban. American taxpayers send billions to Kabul every year and every year billions disappear into the pockets of Afghan government officials. Electronic payment systems would go a long way to solving that problem.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) wanted to do just that. The Agency figured if it could convince those at corruption hotspots, such as customs agents and border guards, to use e-payment methods, then it might curb the amount of cash those agents pocketed every day.

Between 2009 and 2017, USAID spent $160 million and partnered American tech companies to set up e-pay in Afghanistan, according to a new report from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). The goal was to get the border guards trained and using the new methods, with an aim of 75 percent of all customs transactions paid electronically by 2017.

As of today, less than one percent of those transactions are electronic, SIGAR reports. And custom officials loathe the system. “It’s a very long and inefficient process and that’s why people do not use this method,” one Afghan custom official told SIGAR agents.

Agents across the country told SIGAR the same story: cash is fast, cash is efficient, cash is king. The unspoken truth is that cash is good for a quick buck on the side and cheaper for everyone involved. You don’t pay taxes on transactions you don’t report.

Depending on the year, a third to a half of all of Kabul’s income comes from customs collected at the border. According to US government reports, roughy half of the cash paid out to those border agents is pocketed, diverted, or simply lost, with Kabul officials collecting roughly $2 billion in taxes and $4 billion in bribes every year. The amount of money the country’s officials make on graft is double what the government makes on taxes.

With such a culture of corruption it’s not difficult to see why the e-payment pipe dream was doomed from the start. Hell, the way the Afghan banking system is set up makes it easy to see why the whole system was doomed to fail.

“Another challenge is…an Afghan regulatory regime that ostensibly encourages the continued use of the cash-based system by corrupt actors benefiting from its lax controls,” the SIGAR report explained. Basically, customs agents and traders make more money skipping the heavily-monitored electronic systems.

There are a couple of different banking systems in Afghanistan, including commercial banks and the central bank. Cash and electronic deposits in central banks are heavily monitored and taxed. Any single deposit more than 5000,000 AFN (USD $7,328) is automatically flagged and investigated. But believe it or not, cash deposits placed in the central bank run by the government have no such restrictions.

Border agents make a decent living skimming the top off those cash transactions so there’s no incentive for them to push incoming traders to use e-pay. Chemonics, the contractor that set up the system and promised Washington it could get Afghans to use it, said it could get a 75 percent implementation in three years.

When SIGAR asked Chemonics how it came up with such a lofty goal, the company apparently shrugged. “I don’t know the reasoning behind that,” an official told SIGAR. Chemonics will get to keep the tens of millions in US tax dollars it said it needed to implement a system no one used. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“This is no small undertaking,” USAID said when SIGAR confronted it with the information. “Achieving an increase to [75 percent] of revenue being collected by electronic payments was beyond the manageable interest of [Afghan trade officials] alone.”

In Afghanistan, cold, hard cash is the ultimate cryptocurrency, so to speak. It’s not monitored by the government, it doesn’t show up in tax reports, and you can use it to buy anything your heart desires.

Yes, they could, especially with Russian logistical backing:

"But the warnings about the military’s readiness problems are nothing new, and the Navy isn’t alone in seeing a spike in major non-combat incidents and fatalities.

“I think it’s probably approaching a readiness crisis,” Rep. Adam Kinzinger, an Illinois Republican and Air Force veteran. “You have, in many cases, a Navy that is highly operational and may not get the time or the chance to train as deeply or as much as they want. You have old equipment. You have failing equipment because it’s not being repaired or invested in. These are all concerns when it comes to this.”

After the McCain collision, the Navy ordered a one-day operational pause across the entire fleet in order to examine the root causes of the accidents. The commander of the Navy’s 7th Fleet, which operates in the Pacific, was dismissed in the fallout.

The issues extend beyond Navy ships. The Marine Corps also issued a one-day grounding for all of its aircraft earlier this month following two deadly crashes. The Navy has said more than half of its aircraft cannot fly, while the Air Force is short more than 1,500 pilots. And all the military services expressed concerns about training and maintenance in the past year following a spate of aircraft training accidents.

“The competitive advantage that the United States military has long enjoyed is eroding,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joe Dunford warned at a June Senate armed services hearing.

Just give those billions of tax dollars away, while the military is being slowly destroyed. The US as you know it, will not exist 20 years from now.

For those of you are interested how things work here, This article by Mark Sexton mirrors my experiences:

How the Taliban Take a Village

A current method used by Taliban in Afghanistan to gain control of an area deemed of strategic interest to the Taliban leadership operating from safe havens in Pakistan or within Afghanistan is to identify and target villages to subvert. The Taliban have recognized the necessity to operate with the cooperation of local population with the modus operandi being to gain their cooperation through indoctrination (preferred) or coercion (when necessary).

VILLAGE NODES OF INFLUENCE

Key Nodes of InfluenceFor a non-Afghan or foreigner to understand how the Taliban can subvert a village, we can use a simple social structure model to identify the key nodes of influence within a typical Afghan village. A village can be divided into three areas that most affect how daily life is lived. These areas generally fall under political and administrative, religious, and security. These three areas can be considered key nodes of influence in every Afghan village. Of the three nodes the one that is the most visible to outsiders is that of the Malik and village elders. The Malik and village elders represent the political aspects of the village. A second key node of influence is the Imam. The Imam represents the religious node of influence within a village. A third Local node of influence is the individuals and system of security found within a village. Security is traditionally conducted by the men of each individual village. If one of the parts or nodes of influence is controlled by either the Taliban or the Afghan government in each village, then they heavily influence or control villages and the area.

TALIBAN CONTROL OF VILLAGE NODES

Taliban Organization The Taliban look for villages and areas which they can operate within and use as a base against US and Afghan forces. Areas with little US presence or Afghan police or army are prime areas the Taliban will initially seek to subvert and hold. The Taliban build networks by getting a fighter, religious leader, or village elder to support them. Whichever one or more are initially used will be exploited by tribal and familial ties. The village politics administered by the elders and represented by an appointed Malik are the most identifiable node of influence of any particular village. The Taliban will attempt to sway those Maliks who are not supportive by discussion and if necessary threats, violence, or death. In villages where the locals say there is no Malik it is usually described as a convenience to the village as “no one wants the position”, or sometimes “the elders cannot agree on a Malik so it is better there is none”. In these cases it is most likely the Taliban have neutralized the desired representative of that village. When locals are pressed for a representative they will give you a name of a person who has come to represent the village. This individual will also most likely be in support of and supported by the Taliban. The Taliban will try to install a Malik or “representative of the village” by coercion or force.

A “sub-commander” will be established in the village to keep those in line who would resist the Taliban or their Malik, who will be supported by limited funding. The sub-commander will generally have 2-5 fighters under his control. The fighters will often be armed only with small arms and rocket propelled grenades. They may or may not have an IED capability, and if not will coordinate IED activities for the defense and when possible offense against US and Afghan forces. These fighters may stay in the village but preferably are not from the village. Locals can sometimes be pressed into service to fight when needed but the Taliban tend to use fighters from different villages so that when threats or physical violence is utilized it won’t be kinsman against kinsman. The Imam and local mosques of villages are often visited by the Taliban. This is not generally opposed by villagers as it is expected that even the Taliban must be allowed to perform and express their Islamic duties. These mosque visits afford the Taliban opportunities to gage village sentiment and to build and establish contacts within localities. Village religious leaders also serve to educate children in villages where the Taliban have either closed or destroyed the local school. The mosque and Imam serve as an education center for the Taliban while still presenting an opportunity for village children to be “educated.” This presents a solution to the unpopular notion of schools being closed. A constant and recognized complaint from the Afghan people is the lack of opportunity because of poor education. The Taliban will supplant the local Imam if needed by supplying their own to a village. A village with no Imam will receive one and the Taliban will establish a mosque. This mosque will serve as a meeting place for Taliban, storage facility, and indoctrination center.
Sympathetic locals are used as auxiliaries to provide food and shelter. One way to do this is for known supporters to place food and blankets outside their living quarters or in guest quarters to be used by Taliban in transit or operating within a village. This gives the resident supporter some cover of deniability. When US or Afghan forces arrive all that is found are the blanket, possibly clothing, footprints and other signs of their visit. The Taliban have blended into the surrounding village.

TALIBAN CAN CONTROL WITH FEW FIGHTERS

The Taliban method requires relatively few of their own personnel. Its strength is in the local subversion of the most basic levels of village organization and life. It is also a decentralized approach. Guidance is given and then carried out with commanders applying their own interpretation of how to proceed. The goal is to control the village, and at the local level the only effective method, which must be used by all commanders, is to control what we have termed the nodes of influence. Form fits function, an Afghan village can only work one way to allow its members to survive a subsistence agrarian lifestyle, and the Taliban know it well. Taliban Control of Villages

To control an area the Taliban will identify villages that can be most easily subverted. They will then spread to other villages in the area one at a time, focusing their efforts on whichever node of influence seem most likely to support their effort first. Using this model the Taliban could influence and dominate or control a valley or area with a population of 1000-2500 – of ten villages with 100-250 people (100-250 compounds) – with only between 20-50 active fighters and ten fighting leaders. The actual numbers may be more population and fewer fighters.

The Taliban will have an elaborate network to support their fighters in areas they control or dominate. They will have safe houses, medical clinics, supply sites, weapons caches, transportation agents, and early warning networks to observe and report. The US and Afghan forces, heavily laden with excessive body armor and equipment, are reluctant to leave their vehicles. They are blown up on the same roads and paths they entered the area on. The Taliban will use feints and lures to draw our forces away from caches and leaders in an attempt to buy them time to relocate, or into a lethal ambush. After the attack the Taliban will disperse and blend into the village. The village will usually sustain civilian casualties and the information or propaganda will be spread of US and Afghan forces using excessive force. The US and Afghan forces will leave or set up an outpost nearby, but the attacks will continue because the forces are not in the village, do not truly know “who’s who in the zoo”, and aren’t able to effectively engage Taliban personnel or effectively interface with the village nodes of influence to their benefit.
We say one thing but our actions are different. Locals are reluctant to help because to be seen talking with the Americans and Afghan security forces will result in a visit from a Taliban member to determine what they talked about and to whom. The local villagers know the government has no effective plan that can counter the Taliban in their village and will typically only give information on Taliban or criminal elements to settle a blood feud. The Pashtu people are patient to obtain justice and will use what they have to pay pack “blood for blood” even against the Taliban.

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So should we fix the Navy, or occupy all territory between Iran and the Med. Sea, for a generation at least, Lindsey Graham style?

Train some pilots, or execute regime change In Turkey, like John Bolton wants?

We should do anything other than leaving those people the hell alone and either keeping tax money at home or letting citizens keep their money. Ideally, we should bomb them until their current governing agency collapses, then subsidize their rebuilding efforts until their new governing agency can get started, then start the process all over.

We know two things:

  1. The people over there want a Western-style government.
  2. We can’t quit, because 'murica.

NWO dudes have big egos.

If we decrease foreign aid and stop nation building, it will look like Rubio, Graham, McCain and Corker gave in to Pres Trump.

FlatsFarmer and NickViar,
I have always respected your views and I am not trying to argue with either of you. I am just responding from what I observe on an everyday basis.

The USG military is the best in the world at fighting a war for the first 100 days. After that, we are the worst, we seem to have this attitude that once we win, its our job to rebuild the country. Were the fuck did that come from? Why do you go to war in the first place? just so you can drain billions of dollars from the treasury? If the situation calls for war, then fuck the enemy, let them rebuild their own country or fade into history. If wars were fought like wars, where devastation, disease, starvation, ruled for years, where children are dying by the thousands(Yemen) then maybe, countries would not be so cavalier to pull the trigger. You cannot win fighting a PC war.

I have never been in a Muslim country that wanted a western style government. What they want to is play at "western style " government so, than can steal all the tax money they can, they could give a fuck less about a democratic government.

Why cant we quit? Our country is being drained dry, our military has degrated to the point that if the Chinese sailed up the Hudson River, the only recourse we have is nuclear. See, all that nation building doesnt leave time for a strong America.

I dont understand this, but,if we dont stop “foreign aid” and “nation building” we are going to collapse.

Here is a very good example of “nation building”
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"In some instances, the money American taxpayers contributed has been squandered. One infamous example includes a $6 million program designed to breed Italian and Afghan goats for better cashmere to improve the yield. The experiment failed when many of the goats became sick and died.

“I’m not sure flying Italian goats into Afghanistan was exactly what the founders had in mind when they created a standing army for the United States,” said John Sopko, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction.

I know this is a fact, because, I was in the unit that provided Sopko’s protection.

I’m thinking Nick was being sarcastic, but I like reading all your views. Very informative. Too bad no one in power thinks the way you guys do. I thought Trump would have got it, now possibly not.

What would the problem be if we just got out of nation building and trying to be the world’s policeman? Would it be any catastrophic catastrophe if China or Russia or Iran or India moved in to take over the rebuilding of these terrorist hotbeds? Does anyone think they will be successful or be dragged into this so-called quagmire like we are? Hell, terrorists in Pakistan have already been killing Chinese contractors. Does anyone think China can be a better world policeman than us? Does anyone think if China actually accepts this role, by building infrastructure across the old Silk Road, they won’t bleed their country dry as we have been doing?

Let’s bring the money home and rebuild our crumbling infrastructure, how about that idea?

As far as the Graveyard of Empires go, Afghanistan was conquered by Genghis Khan around 1220 and his son Chagatai ruled over the territory. Though there was constant warfare the Chagatid Empire officially ceased to exist in 1683, so that was a hell of a run.

I believe you, flatsfarmer, and I are all in agreement. It would probably be more obvious in person than online.

In March/April Pres Trump proposed cuts in the Foriegn Aid, for his budget 2018. A few powerful Republicans immediately spoke out against these possible cuts. Sen L Graham (who is down for a “Generational Struggle” in his own words) said any budget with cuts to foreign aid would be “Dead on Arrival” to the Senate. This dude would not even allow for the possibility of consideration of decreased foreign aid. This guy has a vision to “reset the world,” and isn’t willing to compromise with anyone who doesn’t share it.

Sen Corker of Tennessee is in some kind of Twitter fight with the President, so he is dug in as well. In my opinion, Senator Corker should be working to allow Tennesse tabacco farmers access to the Chinese market. Not what ever the hell he is doing.

This article says mining isn’t profitable in Afghanistan because there isn’t enough security, and it’s too dangerous.

https://www.thenation.com/article/resources-were-supposed-to-make-afghanistan-rich/

It also says China owns billions of dollars in mines in Afghanistan, but isn’t digging, because it costs to much to protect the mines. But is the US tames the country side, China is ready to get to work.

On the flip side, opium production is up. So there is enough security to grow tons of poppies. In your own words, its the US military providing the muscle!
1415805520646_wps_4_opium_graph_jpg

There is so much heroin in the US now, weed is being laced with it. A room full of people can overdose on fentanyl, from second hand weed smoke!
http://wiat.com/2017/08/23/district-attorney-marijuana-laced-with-fentanyl-is-in-tennessee/

Now there are young, military veteran politicians, with great posture and tons of self confidence (like Tom Cotton) speaking like we have 2 choices; long term occupation of the middle east, or sharia law in the US. Or as if an adjustment in strategy is “losing” or “giving up.”

But 'murica’s not an empire. Always remember that. Always.

Edit: “Nation-building” is just an offshoot of progressivism.

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That’s why it’s so frustrating! Of course the US should promote its own interest( I think?). Of course we’d rather "fight em over there, than fight em over here!(right?)

But how do we Quantify the “cost” vs the “benefit?” And if I ask, will I just be grouped in with Obama-loving, naive millennial pussies?

Leading up to Pres Trump’s speech, I was asking myself, “what do I want this guy to say?” or “what strategy do I think may be effective?” I couldn’t even decide what I thought was “right.” I didn’t expect action against Pakistan as an option.

I was joking. I would argue this is an empire. The largest in world history. It’s not going to stop messing around overseas. One day, money and manpower will run out and it will be forced to recede. That’s how it goes.

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