A quick read of that study shows that it is hardly conclusive. They are relying on customs data alone, which doesn’t actually reflect all information that’s found on a purchase agreement. It is also short-term pass-through data, meaning it won’t reflect changing supply agreements, strategic re-sourcing or manufacturing relocation, or the next long-term contract.
In other words, it’s just a guess based on the very limited amount of publicly-available information. To not guess, you’d need a PO level examination, specifically looking at changes in INCOTERMS and having knowledge of how tariffs can still be captured elsewhere on a purchase order or the final invoice, even if the INCOTERMS indicate the buyer is responsible for import duty payment. In even more simple terms, a lot of phone calls between buyer and seller aren’t captured by that study at all.
I’m not a researcher, but my name has been on quite a few import PO’s, some multi-million dollar import supply agreements and even some export shipments when I filled in for the shipping manager at various jobs.
The dramatic conclusion it reaches was the first sign that something was suspect. It isn’t a trash study by any means, but it is a dramatic oversimplification of the totality of the situation, and it is looking at a very short window in time.
The big picture is a lot harder to measure and can’t be measured for a few years at least.
In even simpler terms, declared customs value (what they measured) does not equal the actual purchase price. It sometimes can, but often doesn’t. The classic example would be discounts, which work the same basic way they do at the grocery store. You can buy a pound of hamburger with a price of $4.99 (declared value) but only pay $4.49 after a 10 percent discount is applied on the final invoice. Sellers can offer discounts to offset the tarrifs while the buyer is still formally responsible for import duty payment, with the declared customs value is still the same or perhaps slightly higher.
This should usually be reflected on the commercial invoice, but sometimes won’t show up until the final invoice is settled. There are a LOT of ways that it can differ in reality, and you can bet that plenty of agreements are being made to react to tarrifs that don’t necessarily show up in customs data but still keep the company in compliance.
These scenarios would only be observable to researchers if they had access to the final invoice, not simply what’s captured on customs documentation.
I just caught the video of people distrupting a church service in St Paul. Makes my blood boil. Lawless heathens. I cant help but put myself in the shoes of the worshippers and my God I would not have the restraint they had. Hands would fly. It’s exactly the reason I started carrying at mass.
I’ve been boiling about that too. I don’t mind mutual combat, but they fucked up. The congregation was minding their own business and peacefully worshiping.
Congratulations on citing something that is actually publicly perceived to be unbiased, and not your usual lefty echo chamber. I will say this -it’s German so obviously any non US country will be, shall we say incentivised, to say that the US raising tariffs is bad for the US and not bad for the country paying the tariffs; we all know, based on the real time actions of the countries that cave in real time to a lot of Orange demands, that that is simply not clear cut, unlike the conclusion of this study; finally, my admittedly personal bias is that any organization that has partnered with the Gates Foundation…can it truly be “neutral”…?
WRT the study, the sample size used is from January 2024 to November 2025. Trump’s tariffs did not even start until February 2025 LOL. I smell an EAGERNESS here to crank out something that paints the desired conclusion.
Finally, at the end of the day this study is an ivory tower conclusion. Real time US inflation data does not reflect an increase in inflation. Let’s wait and see.
Same question for you - do you have any studies that seem to indicate the opposite? I’ve changed my mind in this thread before, so it’s not a gotcha question.
It’s way too early to do a study. In addition to the lack of time/data size, the tariffs have fluctuated wildly based on inter-country policy reactions, which further increase the need to wait until the percentages stabilize.
Real time inflation data seem
that so far the suppliers have chosen to mostly “eat” the tariffs.
Personally, I still have not seen the price of broccoli from China at Walmart increase one penny. Lol.
Four years after this dude moved to Florida, CA is hoping this guy didn’t keep his receipts so that they can keep taxing him LOLLL. Gavin Newscum, the failed Governor of this failing state, is the current leading Democrat for 2028 President. JFC.
No, just my observation that 96 percent can’t possibly be an accurate number. This is mostly because the declared value on customs paperwork does not reliably equal the actual purchase price.
BTW, I’m working on reading LOTR for the first time in over a decade. J.R.R. Tolkien clearly states in Concerning Hobbits that Hobbit society was very limited in their self-governance. Such a society is entirely incompatible with modern “woke” ideas. Here’s a chart of the actual “woke” ideas that would completely re-shape Hobbit society, as Tolkien described it.
I can’t find the quote, but I remember him saying that Hobbit society was best understood as philosophy perfect anarchy. I’ll look for it.
But that would mean that “wokeism” would be pretty freely rampant, just with social pressures instead of legal ones. Although as a monoethnic society they found other ways to quabble.
I’ll re-read it with you if you want to start that Tolkien thread.
Woke wants government enforcement of their idea of “equity”.
That would be antithetical to actual anarchy, wouldn’t it?
Like in the Squire, the woke hobbit would just be emotionally unstable and delusional with no governmental recourse or ability to enforce their emotional problems.
Actually your China comments weren’t completely off the charts. Canada has done new deals with China, EU is doing a Mercosur -deal with South America now (it would make the worlds biggest free market zone).
European leaders are still careful, abd how they crawl in front of Trump is pitiful. But there are more and more voices that demand less trade, less political connections and less military co-operation with US.
Some say NATO is dead from the US part (I kinda agree), so Europe needs finally to step up the defences. Also, strong trade relations can’t go on with unreliable partner. There was interesting article about how interconnected the US-Eur. economies are, and how either side could completely shatter ones economy if it would not mind the collateral damage. This is a situation thst has been developing at least 70 years, but it needs to go.
Anecdote: Finland just bought new fighter jets from US. More and more people do say now it was a massive mistake. It was deal worth of billions, I doubt the next deal will be done with US though. Most think it would be incredibly dumb move to trust USA at this point.
I’m curious. How ready US citizens are to give up their strongest allies? Do you think US is stronger alone? (I honestly don’t).
