This is irrelevant to the crux of the argument however
We have been told to panic about Trump for a long time however the consequences that were flouted associated with a Trump presidency were not eventuating
This is the first case where I can say “holy shit… I’m worried”. If the economy crashes under Donald Trump into a Great Depression era recession will the blame be shifted onto Trump or will the goalpost shift to “it was always this way and a recession was on the horizon anyway”
I don’t know what to think, I’m not going to pretend as if I have enough insight on Americas financial ecosystem to know for certain (or even have a vague idea) what will happen in response to these tariff’s
But if this leads to disaster there’s no way in my mind to spin this on democrats if it falls through. I’d be nervous about this… and I am nervous about it given if Americas economy falls Australia trails behind Americas trends… a decent chunk of my net worth is tied up in heavy metals so for me I think I’m fine… but I don’t have much… living in Australia as a young person right now is fucking absurd (major cities here all rank as top re least affordable areas in the world).
my parents will incur massive financial strain if America goes into major recession.
I have a hunch Donald Trump is going to have to back down on this, with the exception being the maintenance of tariffs on China (and hopefully he does the same for Russia)
As first world countries should be following the example of not wanting to get into bed with China
2030 or there about. At least that would be in step with the 20 year cycle. We’ll see how much people load up on consumer debt in the next few years.
So, what people forget is that Trump started and won a trade war with Saudi Arabia and OPEC based on comparative advantage.
What they do remember is the lower gas prices, food prices, etc. Kitchen Table issues.
He does this and wins because he believes in the wealth and might of the American dollar, as do many other nations. It should be noted that the american dollar is the worlds preferred reserve currency. It is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government.
During his first term President Trump sanctioned Iran (and some other oil producers) to stop their oil exports. This drop in world supply left a gap to be filled.
Then the US, Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC happily absorbed Iran’s market share. It wasn’t a trade war, it was a team up.
Some of the news-types are theorizing that President Trump has a similar strategy in mind now. Using tariffs (instead of sanctions) to Eliminate trade between China and the US. And ideally the allies of the US. And then the US taking over the role of big time producer of goods.
By my calculations, we’re about two weeks away from “I stand with China” and people changing their profile flags from Ukraine to the CCP.
I’m not sure where else this political movement can go at this point.
We have been in a trade war with China ever since they were admitted to the WTO. They have not been a good faith actor we were told would emerge, and the USA has basically been in a process of squandering our future ever since to elect politicians who say magic words that people believe while we get fleeced.
If we’re going to begin to fight back, right now seems like the right time to do it. We still have many major advantages.
This should have been done as soon as we knew COVID was a lab leak. The pandemic showed how reliant we are on China, and we haven’t done a damn thing about it.
President Biden tried to de couple in a half assed way, continuing Pres Trump’s initial tariff on China and spending a bunch of money to stimulate the economy, CHIPs Act, etc.
But like most of his efforts, that stuff cost a lot and was not very effective.
Pres Trump’s actions seem more decisive, with less short term cost to the government. But more short term cost to economy. We’ll see how effective they are soon.
He was the first president to visit china and that was the beginning of trade deals…which paved the way for clinton to convince the wto to allow china in
When I was a youth in the 90s, President Nixon was regarded as a master of International Relations, and opening trade with China was considered awesome.
Everybody loved in when Forrest Gump played ping pong in China.
I remember when it was popular ”paradigm” within experts that introducing free market will bring prosperity and democracy to every country.
In 90s and early 2000s everybody was expecting China and Russia to become ”westernized” after they applied our economic models to their societies. And at first it looked that it might happen.
That was definitely a trade war. If it were just to compensate for Iran, the price would have remained stable. Instead, it plummeted and remained very low as the world market was flooded from both sides trying to outcompete on production ability/dollar.
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said he’d snuck in these United States
To eat fried cheese, and go to Burning Man
And unload trucks, and pick forbidden fruit
Send money home, and give his kids a chance
To live their life in freedom free from fear
From strongmen stashing all that they could steal
And conmen full of false and dirty deals
Where Lady Liberty enlights the world
And cries “Keep, Ancient Lands, Your Storied Pomp!
Come, Huddled Masses! Yearning To Breathe Free!”
(An offer good until 2003.)
But don’t bring drugs. Or crime. Or dignity.
Don’t offer heroin to Kennedy
Don’t eat the dogs and cats and call it beef
Just call Trump King of Kings -
Beyond belief!
I’ve met a lot of travelers from antique lands who were cynically trafficked to Maine to import a new Democrat voting bloc. Democrats always conflate that shameful ploy with the long-established and broadly supported idea of legal immigration. They call anyone who disagrees with this conception of immigration a fascist and a Nazi.
I’m currently reading Gotz Aly’s Hitler’s Beneficiaries and the similarities to Maine Democratic Socialists are hitting pretty close to home for me. Nazi domestic welfare policy is basically the wet dream of Democrats, minus the camps (for now), just based on different racist garbage. The modern conception of “equity” is the same thing that the Nazis pursued, just for different ethnic groups.
Nazis’ word for me was untermensch. Democrats’ name for me is white supremacist. Distorted historical narratives and pseudoscience form the basis for both ideas. I’m told the only cure for my white supremacy is to attend a struggle session where I learn about my implicit bias, which only happens to people with my skin color, then vote for Democrats.
In some good local news, a write-in candidate won a school board seat in Gardiner, which is just north of me. It was all word-of-mouth and social media, as she only declared two weeks before the election. The W’s against the Democratic Socialists are piling up, but they still control most of the government here.
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