You know, I’m thinking that cutting Zelensky out of the negotiations is 100% going to result in a better deal for the Ukrainian people. Absolutely Putin detests Zelensky, and making Z look bad would undoubtedly be an incentive. 3D chess baby.
Also, if “rebating” 20% of DOGE savings to the American people is something that Trump can actually do from a legal standpoint, it’s game over, mic drop.
People don’t want war thought, since war is hell. It would not be a war that would happen other side of the ocean, but in our streets and forests. We also have proof how Russian military treats civilians if they occupy a town.
European countries aren’t attacking Russia, since we follow international law (and testing if those nukes work is a high stackes gamble).
What majority of Europe hoped, that Ukraine would have been a slap on the wrist to Putin, so ge would forget his imperialist dreams.
Now when US seems to back up Russia whole Europe has gone to alarm state. There are emergency meetings constantly.
If I want to see a positive side here, is that Europeans might build up shared military strength, but that’s optimistic (if AfD wins in Germany they’re out for example).
Zelenskyi still has 50-70% approval rating amongst Ukrainians, and if they will have the elections right after the war ends (as they should), it’s likely that he would won.
Zelenskyi is just a figure on the table, Putin’s goals are broader.
There are two options with Trumps + Musks recent statements:
- They are playing 3D chess in a way that they’re trying to please Putin.
- They actually believe what they’re writing.
I think it’s game over regardless, but I’ll take some cash back too.
This is a very exciting time for me, living through one of history’s defining moments in a confederate state.
Luckily, there is absolutely no possibility of Democratic Socialists organizing themselves into combat units to initiate Civil War 2.
I’m still keeping my fingers crossed for some kind of street conflict, but I’d probably pull a Frodo and end up taking pity on the poor creatures.
Oh yeah, there is no upside or winning in repelling an invading force. Its just survive or not.
Thats why no matter how it pans out in Ukraine, there is no “win”. I feel very strongly that Putin would completely annihilate the people of Ukraine.
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The world is very, very unaccustomed to good American statesmanship. Second Term Trump is unlike anything ever seen in history. It is intended to MAGA, which is WAY different than other administrations, even Trump’s first team
Of course Putin will get concessions. He still holds cards in his hand, including nukes, energy, natural resources and territory.
Ukraine gets a future, along with a real national identity that won’t be forgotten.
Everyone stops dying.
There will be growing pains for our allies, but they will benefit from MAGA, too.
It is a counter-revolution to undo terrible internal mistakes, which will seem a lot different than anything that’s ever happened.
I sure hope this will happen. There needs to be security quarantees for Ukraine, otherwise there will be prolonged “cold” conflict (like in Korea), or even worse, Russia will attack again after couple years.
But I’m waiting the actual negotiations to start to see how well things develop. There is no certainty that any peace will be even achieved. I suspect Russia’s demands will be ridiculous at start.
As for US-EU relations, outcome of this negotiation will define our future A LOT.
If this is true, then Zelenskyi should have held elections.
Also, you can’t just toss out a 50 to 70 range lol. 70% is a LOT more meaningful than a coin flip of 50%. 50% elections, or approval ratings, can be “influenced” or “nudged”. At 70%, one pretty much needs heavy handed strong arm tactics to alter the outcome.
Russia is willing to stop right now, right where they have control of Ukranian land, as long as they get to keep what they occupy. That means Odessa, access to the black sea, and all of the infrastructure & the lobe of the caspian shale basin.
They also want a guarantee of Ukraine not joining nato.
I think there are a few other things, but those alone are non starters enough.
The law in Ukraine is unclear, the war situations has made it possible for Zelenskyi to hold power.
The excact numbers seems to wary a lot, so there is no certainty is it 50% or 70%. Not that I care. This war is not about Zelenskyi.
Pretty much. I also suspect they would like to have a Lukashenko -style puppet leader in Kiev.
Not sure how you can prevent independent country trying to get to the NATO.
Yeah. Definitely.
It would basically amount to Russia saying “We’ll let you live, but we’re taking everyghing of value”.
Then they’d parasitize Ukraine out of existence.
By waging war on their civilians, like the first year of the war.
Once everybody is dead, they won’t need to join.
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Back to the inner politics. I found an interesting article from Reuters, which shows that Trumps approval rating starts with a minor landslide. Too early say anything else yet.
https://www.reuters.com/data/trumps-approval-rating-2025-01-21/
Putin has constantly offered Zelensky the opportunity to negotiate, from the beginning of the war. Ukraine made it against the law to do so. Putin has said that he is still open to speaking to Zelensky. I don’t know why you’re putting thoughts in Putin’s brain.
Oh poor Putin wants peace. He’s just a misunderstood nice guy.
Russia proposed peace. The conditions were:
- Russia gets all the land it has claimed, not just the land they’re occupying.
- No NATO for Ukraine.
- All sanctions towards Russia needs to be removed.
It’s no surprise Ukraine did not agreed.
Ukraine has also stated which conditions would be enough for peace. Including returning to the 2013 borders and judgements for Russian war crimes. Not that these terms will ever be accepted by Russia.
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Right. They’re at an impasse.
A few years ago I realized there is a particular interest amongst foreigners in the United States. Perhaps that’s because whatever is trending in the United States might be headed their way. And for quite some time, the US has been looked upon as a model country.
I am not saying this goes for @SepCalla, but some will even be annoyed when we legitimately complain about terrible things in our own country. Perhaps this is because they do not want to be disappointed with their model country. I don’t think it has been a model for quite some time, as expressed in previous posts.
@SepCalla Do you have any input on why foreigners are so tuned into the US? I do not know the ins and outs of the daily lives of their citizens and their politicians and laws.
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I’ll try to explain the european perspective. This is not a short text thought, hahah.
I see that US has always been a major interest amongst europeans, because US and (most of the) Europe are “brethren”. I remember US being part of the headlines as long as I remember. Europeans do not look US as a model country, but rather as a economical ally, military ally and as an ideological ally.
US was originally founded upon European culture and values. Freedom, egalitarianism, division of power etc. were founded in 17-18th century Europe. US founding fathers were first to put these values in action at the national level. Soon Europe followed. So we have same core values as liberal democracies.
During the world wars the co-operation really kicked in. You know that you were part of the allied forces and helped the Europe during and after the wars (Finland was part of the axis actually, but let’s not talk about that now, hahah). During Cold War it was clear that US and the West-Europe were together against Soviet rule (during that time Finland also started getting closer to the US and west in general). Since then Europe (EU) and US have had excellent relations in trade and most of the EU countries are part of the NATO.
US is also stronger than any European country alone, and even combined Europe will not surprass US in economy or military (in science we lead, yay!). So since we’re allies and US is often seen as kind of a “strong friendly cousin”, it’s natural that we’re following you closely. There is also bunch of critical viewers of US in Europe, but majority of the population and, more importantly, politicians/goverments are leaning towards you guys.
But it’s not that we follow only US. I think there is also difference in perspective, since just in about US sized Europe there are 44 countries (27 in EU), with much broader variances in culture and societies compared to the states in US. So getting to know how world looks outside our homelands borders is a norm.
I know a thing or two about the US, but it’s not my expertise. Therefore I’ve been relatively cautious for saying anything about your inner policies and debates, and focused more on foreign policy/relations to Europe.
All of this in mind, it is not really a surprise we follow you closely. We’re just trying to figure out if the friendly cousin is still friendly and will he stand with us still, when the authoritan regimes are rising in the east.
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