I think we’ll see retooling to a degree and in the short-term (meaning current - 25 years) that might be enough of a stop-gap measure to avoid UBI. If we bring a significant amount of manufacturing back to the US that will make the retooling more effective along with the correct policy from Washington (lol).
However, I think we’re going to see a lot of trades automated at some point as well. Probably more in the 25+ year range, but it’s hard to know how quickly technology will advance. We’re already seeing it in construction.
I do agree that some of the predictions are a bit on the dire side (Yang is one of the more egregious ones).
To me, and I mentioned this up thread, AI is more of a concern particularity considering our economy is primarily a service economy. If AI can replace the majority of hedge fund managers, which they probably will at some point, a lot more people will be out of work. I think a lot of basic clerical work is going to be done by computers sooner than people think.
I can recognize that as an advantage. If you can statistically reduce the fluctuations it is advantageous, with the cost of probably lower returns. A tradeoff based on circumstance.
I was mostly under the incorrect assumption that you were working for the ultra wealthy vs pension.
I was looking at an episode of the old “Twilight Zone” one night where there was this huge accounting office full of clerical types. In the past; these were large firms that basically did the “Books and Billing” for Companies of all sizes. (If a firm was of a certain size; they had their own departments. (e.g. “Mad Men” for an idea; or think maybe Sears of the 50’s and 60’s).
Most of what was done then by large firms and/or departments are done now with a fraction of the people and with computers.
And when one thinks of skilled displacement…I think of the Welders and Machinist jobs that were almost completely overtaken by automation in the Auto Industry. Every time you see one of those robots doing those spot welds on an assembly line…or putting out a precision part with one person at the control board; that represents skilled jobs that were replaced with automation.
It is worth noting that we don’t know what we don’t know. It is possible that new jobs we could not imagine now will be necessary in 10-20 years. Maybe not too. Previous to Corona unemployment was pretty low, even though automation and AI are already displacing jobs (CAD software for example reduces engineers, ziosk reduces servers, etc.).
I have seen injection molding moving back to the US. However, it is because of robots, but it is still 1-2 American jobs vs 0 (would have been 10 before though).
I think right now, I am of the opinion that during shutdown, I would not be opposed to temporary UBI or something like it. After that, I would like to see the Earned Income Tax Credit program expanded. I really don’t have many issues with that program. The incentives are set up properly. It encourages people to make more money.
This has been a long march for some time. Think about everything ERP accomplishes that was done on paper for centuries or even millenia. How many journal entries are kicked off when you ship an order and all of the background jobs in SAP or whatever system take over? How was that sort of accounting done 60 years ago?
I think UBI is a stupid idea right now, or at least it was right up until the pre-pandemic economy (not that I’m saying it’s a great idea now, but that the game has changed.)
We may be headed for a second great depression and all, but we may be headed for a manufacturing renaissance. Forget learn to code. Learn to weld.
Yet there was a tremendous shortage of welders prior to the pandemic, at least. In my area it might be (or have been) the quickest path to a $20-25 an hour job out of high school right now.
Manufacturing still does and still will involve a lot of hand assembly and hand welds.
There are still welding jobs that robots can’t do. Additionally, a robot will only make sense in high volume manufacturing. Anything that is repair work or custom stuff will likely be done by a human for a while.
I agree with this statement. I am on the fence about it during shut down, but after I prefer the EITC to help out poor folks. The incentives to work and work to make more money are there.
I am not sure if I would pick welding as a trade right now. I think many of the displaced welders will be looking to do custom and repair welding. If I was going into a trade it would probably be plumbing or something. People will always need to shit. I don’t see a robot doing that work for a long while. My field of engineering will take a while to automate in my estimation. Although things like CAD, MS excel speed our work up.
I’ve sent a lot of kids to school for this but I did have one question. We usually sent our kids to a tech program in high school and I can’t remember if our kids completed or had to go back after high school to finish up (we only sent juniors and seniors).
I’m guessing most welders need some type of certification which may keep them from technically having that right out of high school. Just curious.
We have warehouse jobs around here that a kid with just a diploma could be getting towards 20 bucks an hour fairly quickly. I know our local Walmart DC I want to say starts at 18 and bumps you fairly quickly. It’s hellish work apparently though and they can never keep people. Wife’s cousin is a higher up there. He said they have had so many problems keeping people they had considered bussing people in from over 45 miles away (community that has a lot of Hispanics and other immigrants). They haven’t done that yet though but I know it has been discussed
Our local metalworking school has a six week program for basic welding that will put you right to work in a number of machine shops.
We’ve got that too. I used to lift with one of the managers at the Wal-Mart DC. The only barrier to entry was passing the drug test. No GED requirement. Literally any warm body was good enough to get a crack at picking for $18.50 an hour. They can’t fill the jobs, or at least couldn’t before the pandemic.
That’s little old Maine, which isn’t particularly strong economically. I forgot what a dick that guy was, but he made some good points about looking beyond first order effects of innovation and automation.
For an extreme example of this, consider slavery. When the price of labor is so low, it discourages innovation. It left the south with a comparatively anemic economy that ended up getting steam-rolled by a rapidly-advancing industrial powerhouse, unhindered by artificially cheap labor. Give that process another hundred years and more jobs were created than we could ever have imagined at the time.
Imagine if Rome didn’t have an average of 2-3 slaves per citizen. What else could they have innovated 2000 years ago?
True, but in this case we saw a lot of new job creation in other areas. Software and application development, cloud computing, database administrations, etc… That kind of job displacement, while shitty for the individual, isn’t detrimental to the economy as a whole. In many ways it ultimately is better for the individual displaced.
One of my main concerns regarding the next economic/industrial revolution is that I struggle to see enough new jobs for the majority of those displaced. It’s possible, I don’d have a crystal ball, but I just don’t see it, which is why I think UBI is likely inevitable.
I do think we’ll see a lot more people earning a living through the gig economy, but in order for that to happen people need money to spend. Either that or we revert back to a time when people consume less (lol).
Absolutely and I don’t think that’s a bad thing in and of itself. It’s increased efficiency and I think it’s a business prerogative to maximize efficiency. But, from a macro point of view, the maximization of efficiency, particularly related to AI and automation, is detrimental to employment and there will come a time, imo, where there aren’t enough jobs to go around and/or they will require skills that a majority of works will not be able to obtain. When that happens we will probably have to redistribute the spoils of production/wealth. It’s what Schumpeter warned about 100+ years ago and I don’t see a way around it (and you know I am as anti-socialism as they come).
Capitalism has become so successful it’ll lead to socialism.
True and I’d love to see it. I’m a big fan of what Mike Rowe does for example. However:
I’d say it depends on where you live. It is a can’t-lose trade in my area right now, but we’ve also got a really big shipyard that drives a lot of that demand coupled with an aging population. Edit: It’s also a six week program that only costs about $4,000, so it is an easy investment to recoup.
Even if you do get automated out of a job in 20 years, you’ll have 20 years of manufacturing experience and you’ll still know how to weld. It’s hard to imagine you couldn’t make some kind of jump to another job that will put your experience to work.
Who knows what’s ahead?. Nothing’s a safe bet anymore, not when you don’t get to decide whether you conduct business or not.
I’d say it’s probably less of a concern now than it was when our largest manufacturers automated all of the welding they could. I wonder, how complete is that process, nation-wide?
I’m really curious how much welding being done now is actually a good candidate for automation. If I think about the last four shop floors I’ve supported it wouldn’t make any sense at all, but that’s expected with engineer to order type of operations.
I agree with your thoughts almost exactly on this topic.
Machines upped productivity over manpower.
Computers upped productivity over strict repetitive activity man or machine.
Advanced communication/AI ups it over even skilled or intelligence driven work.
Gulp… Rise of the Machines.
Called on 1000s of locations over decades of sales and all progressed just like mufasa said. Even in retail, 1 box store hires 50 to close down 10 locals employing 100. Then gets rid of 10 with self checking and 10 more because find it yourself.
Then struggles against internet competitor uses 15 pickers. Internet seller lays off 10 when putting in fully computer picking robotics/AI procurement.
There will be a few winners (the ones with money/influence) and many losers who have to be bought out off with a pittance of UBI.
