That would be great to see most of the time, too many times questions avoided and turned into criticizing what the other person did or is planning to do without a better alternative. However this would give people like Hillary and advantage where Trump hasn’t held a political office so there is less past experience to evaluate. What you do vs what you say is important which is why the track record of politicians is always important for elections.
Dude.
Predicting referendums without historical precedents is much, much trickier. In the UK that meant relying on the YouGov polls and analysis of social and demographic data and respective turnouts of characteristic clusters of voters.
Even Brexiters like Farage conceded defeat after first results started coming, only to be themselves uncomfortably surprised later in the night. Noone expected the pro-Brexit vote.
US elections with a myriad of state and nationwide polls and distinct historical trends are much easier. Not easy, but easier.
Was there an upset in the US elections defying the polls since “Dewey defeats Truman”?
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You are under the impression that this evidences your stupid, loony horseshit about scientific polls being rigged by “the establishment” in favor of Hillary Clinton. Is that correct? You believe this?
It still speaks to his abilities even if it isn’t a perfect comparison to the US election.
Has there been a candidate like Trump in the past?
No it doesn’t. I have reservations about how he extrapolates conclusions from his data, but Brexit was completely different.
In US elections you have Republican and Democrat historical breakdowns per state, Congress and Senate elections, you can factor in defections (“Reagan democrats”) and can make predictions per state.
In Europe you have the “poll bias” where voters are hesitant to reveal to pollsters that they’re voting for a candidate who holds repugnant views, but Trump is now mainstream as the Republican candidate. Also, “poll bias” is pretty much negated in the US with the electoral college.
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Because we’re talking about Nate Silver, lets take a look at what he thinks. He even mentions Brexit:
"So suppose that we call the debate a draw. Suppose, furthermore that the tape the Post published didn’t damage Trump. Instead, let’s say the polls look about the same a week from now as they do today, with Clinton holding a 5 or 6 percentage point lead. Maybe Clinton’s numbers were a little inflated after the first debate and Trump has even gained a point or two, somehow.
That’s still a fairly awful position for Trump with time running out, undecided voters getting off the sidelines, early voting already taking place in many states and little or no ground game to help provide a strong finishing kick. There’s the third debate, but without an extremely strong performance in that one, Trump is probably left hoping for an “October surprise” or a big polling error (not impossible, but it would have to be larger than the 4-point margin by which Brexit polls missed)."
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Then you could have questions like “how would your policy be better than / differ from your opponents?”
I have zero interest in debate 3 after tonight because it was just stump speech after stump, especially from trump. It’s so clear he got coached up on “just deflect to how she made ISIS, and how Bill is a rapist”
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No, it doesn’t. That’s like saying the fact a neurosurgeon didn’t diagnose bladder cancer speaks to his abilities as a doctor.
Was going to mention poll bias, you seem to think that Americans are somehow immune to that.
Why?
Trump has pretty much all MSM united against him, he apparently is racist, sexist, and whatnot, to claim that he is portrayed as mainstream is a tall order.
I think it could very well be that people simply underdeclare their support for Donald Trump and since he is close in a few swing states…
Excellent point, Treco. After the 2010 quake, Bill and Hillary know a lot about Haitian disaster relief. Maybe they could get over to Haiti right away and assess the opportunities, I mean damages. Nobody helps poor black people quite like the Clintons!
If your sarcasm meter isn’t going off, it’s broken. In the know Hillary voters everywhere are saying, “What? Did the Clinton’s go to Haiti? She must be one of those right wing nut jobs who’s making stuff up.”
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They’re not immune, but electoral college negates it in my opinion.
Usually, when you’re reluctant to voice your opinion it’s because you think you’ll be ostracized by your peers/community, or that supporting your candidate it’s not “something normal people do” in your social circle.
So for example secret Trump supporters (I suppose?) in West Village are negated by NY being a blue state. In a direct election their votes would have counted and their numbers could be tip of the scale and affect the outcome.
Also, Trump is one of the candidates in what is practically a two party system with the Republican party (still) behind him. So despite all the controversy he is the Republican candidate which gives him legitimacy in the eyes of his supporters, reducing the number of people unwilling to reveal their voting preference. It’s one or the other candidate.
If hypothetically there for three options for example - R/D/White nationalist - I would have understood the “poll bias” as people would be ashamed to voice their preference.
I might be wrong, but I don’t see any evidence that he’s a pariah in any of the swing states…
But I do agree with the second part of your comment - as the philosopher Nassim Taleb argues on Twitter:
“If someone showed you articles abt Trump, you would have estimated that polls ~0% (just wife & butler voting for him). The press is dying.”
Such a dishonest sleaze-ball.
Too bad it’s Trump running against her. Sigh.
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Nassim Taleb seems to come up a lot lately…
And yeah, you know I have the Austrian presidential election and the Brexit election under my belt, where the polls got it all wrong…
That might move me in a direction where it might be possible ?
I just don´t know, on the bright side, we will know in about 4 weeks.
All I know, I will be thoroughly drunk on election night, for whoever wins, America loses… (most likely !?!)
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Ach so.
Im Himmel gibt’s kein bier? 
If it is any consolation, I think the most Trump voters feel the same in reverse…
What an orange buffoon and rodeo clown, but if Hilllary is the alternative, Christ Almighty…
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Well, if there is one case for the Flying Spaghetti Monster it is the promised beer volcanos…
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I don’t drink, Orion so you’ll need to double up for me. I’m probably a light weight so that means maybe drink another half a beer for Puff.
I’ve already been in an 8 year relationship with someone who doesn’t even like me. Breaking up with Obama feels awesome, but I’m pretty sure the next four years has me in a lesbian relationship with a mean fat lady in a pantsuit. I’m hopeful that she’s a one term president. That’s the only silver lining in this. And I’m hopeful that we’ll have some balance in the House and with a little luck, the Senate.
It may sound a little dramatic, but I’ve been helping my daughter study the fall of the Byzantine and the Roman Empires. I can’t help but feel like we’re watching the decline of a great nation. People seem to love evil more than good, and I’m talking about both the deplorables here. America is a blessed land, but we can’t hold it if we aren’t worthy of it.
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