The Rumsfeld Mutiny

Very interesting post by UCLA Law professor Stephen Bainbridge on this - interesting perspective on “governance” for the military and the SecDef:

http://www.professorbainbridge.com/2006/04/bottom_up_monit.html#more

Bottom up Monitoring in the Defense Department: The Generals (Ret.) v. Rumsfeld

James Joyner summarizes the blogosphere arguments on the retired generals attacking Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld ( Outspoken Retired Generals and Civilian Control, Redux ):

[i] Kevin Drum, reflecting on the recent spate of retired generals speaking out both both for and against Donald Rumsfeld’s being replaced as SECDEF, remarks ( http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_04/008636.php ), “Regardless of whether or not we agree with the generals’ criticism, I think it?s wise to be uneasy about something that has a bit of a sense of a palace revolt against the current civilian leadership of the military.”

Steven Taylor thinks this concern odd, arguing that ( http://www.poliblogger.com/?p=9774 ) "employing the 'civilian control of the military' card in this context is a non sequitur, because the generals in question are retired, and therefore are civilians and are exercising their rights as such to critique the sitting government." In follow-up posts, he notes that guys like Wesley Clark have spoken out without similar criticisms ( http://www.poliblogger.com/?p=9778 ) and, citing an Explainer piece noting that there are "about 4700 retired generals, ( http://www.slate.com/id/2139847/?nav=fix )" the pronouncements of a few of them will hardly undermine civilian control ( http://www.poliblogger.com/?p=9780 ).

While I am sympathetic to the "civilian control" argument and would like to see retired generals (and, indeed, public officials period) be silent, I ultimately agree with Taylor on this one. As I've noted before, we?ve had much more aggregious cases at even more inauspicious times without undermining the Republic ( http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/04/retired_generals_call_for_rumsfeld_resignation/ ). [/i]

I want to come at the problem from a slightly different direction; namely, by treating the question as one for institutional economics.

With authority comes accountability. Put another way, as between the American people and government officials there is a principal-agent problem. The officials must be monitored to ensure that their conduct redounds to the general welfare. It is not just a problem of preventing shirking, but also ensuring that the decision maker is exercising sound judgment. Indeed, given that high officials in any organization tend to have a high degree of self-motivation when it comes to the work-leisure choice, it is ensuring good judgment that is the real monitoring problem.

Civilian control of the military thus inevitably creates a corresponding need to ensure that such control is exercised responsibility.

In any organization, there are a variety of internal and external monitoring mechanisms. In a corporation, for example, the CEO is monitored internally by the board of directors. In addition to which, the CEO is also monitored by shareholders and market forces.

In contrast, a high government official like Rumsfeld is largely immune to market forces. The people can’t vote him out and there is no equivalent of the the product and capital markets that punish misbehaving CEOs. Internal monitoring is thus the order of the day.

Some scholars argue that a CEO is monitored not only from above by the board of directors, but also from below by the other members of the top management team. Eugene Fama contends, for example, that lower level managers monitor more senior managers. Eugene Fama, Agency Problems and the Theory of the Firm, 88 J. Pol. Econ. 288, 293 (1980).

By analogy, perhaps Rumsfeld is monitored both by the President and by his top subordinates, including the military brass. Indeed, such an understanding of the military’s role may be implicit in the defense of Rumsfeld offered in today’s W$J by four retired generals ( In Defense of Donald Rumsfeld - WSJ ):

The notion that Secretary Rumsfeld doesn’t meet with, or ignores the advice of, senior military leaders is not founded in fact. During his tenure, senior military leaders have been involved to an unprecedented degree in every decision-making process. In addition to the Senior Level Review Group, Defense Senior Leadership Conference, and Quadrennial Defense Review, in 2005 Secretary Rumsfeld also participated in meetings involving service chiefs 110 times and combatant commanders 163 times. Gen. Myers correctly describes these meetings as “very collaborative” with a free flow of information and discussion. Gen. Tommy Franks, U.S. Central Command Commander during the liberation of Afghanistan and Iraq, echoes Gen. Myers’s comments and supports Secretary Rumsfeld as collaborative in the decision-making process.

In adddition, the law requiring the Joint Chiefs to give Congress the benefit of their independent judgment expressly incorporates a bottom up monitoring compnent.

In theory, an executive’s subordinates often are better placed than anyone to evaluate the executive. In any organization, employees who advance to senior management levels necessarily invest considerable time and effort in learning how to do their job more effectively. Such an employee is likely to make better decisions for the firm than an outsider, even assuming equal levels of information relating to the decision at hand. The insider can put the decision in a broader context, seeing the relationships and connections it has to the firm as whole. In addition, insiders have better access to information. Insiders have lots of informal contacts, which promotes team formation, and better access to information.

Yet, I am skeptical that bottom up monitoring by subordinates works very well in the Pentagon. In the first place, such monitoring doesn’t work very well anywhere. I explained the problem in my article Why a Board? Group Decisionmaking in Corporate Governance ( Why a Board? Group Decisionmaking in Corporate Governance by Stephen M. Bainbridge :: SSRN ):

[i] Such up-stream monitoring … does not take full advantage of specialization. Fama and Jensen elsewhere point out that one response to agency costs is to separate “decision management”?initiating and implementing decisions?from “decision control”?ratifying and monitoring decisions. Such separation is a defining characteristic of the central office typical of M-form corporations. The M-form corporation replaces the simple pyramidal hierarchy with a more complex structure in which the central office has certain tasks and the operating units have others, which allows for more effective monitoring through specialization, sharper definition of purpose, and savings in informational costs. In particular, the central office?s key decision makers?the board of directors and top management?specialize in decision control. Because low and mid-level managers specialize in decision management, expecting them to monitor more senior managers thus calls on the former to perform a task for which they are poorly suited.

A different critique of Fama's hypothesis is suggested by evidence with respect to meeting behavior from research on group decision making. In mixed status groups, higher status persons talk more than lower status members. Managers, for example, talk more than subordinates in business meetings. Such disparities result in higher status group members being more inclined to propound initiatives and having greater influence over the group?s ultimate decision. [/i]

As applied to a military culture, bottom up monitoring seems especially unworkable. It does not impugn the patriotism or courage of members of the military to point out that the military as an institution tends to be plagued with careerism and politics. Former Colonel David Hackworth carved out a post-service career criticizing the military brass for just such failings, as illustrate by this 2000 op-ed ( http://www.hackworth.com/24apr00.html ). Milblogger John Holdaway ascribed the Abu Ghraib scandal to “a weakness in leadership driven by careerism.” ( http://www.intel-dump.com/archives/archive_2005_09_25-2005_10_01.shtml ) Ambitious generals at the end of their career, facing imminent mandatory retirement, seem especially unlikely to buck those who control their prospects for advancement.

In contrast, recently retired generals provide a source of external monitoring that has many of the advantages of insider oversight. They have access to information about the SecDef that is nearly as good as their active duty counterparts, without the political and carrier constraints. To be sure, one must take it all with a grain of salt, because the retirees may well have their own political axes to grind (or career scores to settle).

Yet, in thinking about the problem as one of monitoring within organizations, critiques by recent retirees strikes me as a useful combination of external and internal review. We get the informational advantages of insiders coupled with the freedom to criticize of external forces. It isn’t perfect, but in a system in which civilian control must be held accountable, this strikes me as a legitimate form of accountability.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Professor X wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
ExNole wrote:

The media is where people are tried in this administration. Libby kept his job until his indictment, no one in the administration cared he leaked the info, only that he got caught and put on TV. …

You are 100% wrong. Bush cares nothing for media attention and polls.

Libby would still be working if he were not indicted.

The media pressure on Rumsfeld will not drive him out but it may make our enemies think they are winning.

Bullshit. I can’t stand this ridiculous stance as if no one should say anything against anyone in the administration because it may cause our enemies to think they are winning. That is simply another way of saying anyone who opposes is somehow “unpatriotic”. You come across as an unthinking political party drone. I hope some of you realize that our actions right now have more to do with your kids and their children than who wins the big political party game right now. No one will give a shit about your current version of Republican vs Democrat in 30 years.

I don’t follow. The media will noi\t force Rumsfeld out. It has been shown that Bush does not follow their opinions.

There is no question that our enemy follows our media and plays to our news cycles. They admit it, it is part if their planning. That is why all the bombings occur where they can be easily reported.

There is no question that Rummy being forced out would be percieved as a victory for our enemies.
[/quote]

Sure, I’ll give you that. You’re ignoring the fact that both competent leadership and American civilian opinion are far more important to winning this war than a temporary boost to jihadi morale.

Have you read anything I’ve written on this thread? None of those are my original ideas, and none of them are vague.

You’re right. And he’s the wrong man to be carrying out this war, largely because he doesn’t agree with the prime reason (democracy promotion) behind it.

You don’t know what you’re talking about here. Read something serious, policy not politics, on Iraq and the debates both before and during the invasion. Take a week and read The Assassins’ Gate, and then come tell me “Nobody truly believes keeping the Sunni dominated army together would have been a good idea.” Or don’t read it, and have fun living in your little bubble of GOP-only news/propaganda. Honestly, the inability of some people on this thread to even read legitimate opposing media (not talking Michael Moore or The Nation here) is sad.

[quote]GDollars37 wrote:

Disbanding the Iraqi army was the only call.

It was dominated by the Sunni. They were the problem before the invasion, they were a problem during the invasion and they are a major problem now. Nobody truly believes keeping the Sunni dominated army together would have been a good idea.

You don’t know what you’re talking about here. Read something serious, policy not politics, on Iraq and the debates both before and during the invasion. Take a week and read The Assassins’ Gate, and then come tell me “Nobody truly believes keeping the Sunni dominated army together would have been a good idea.” Or don’t read it, and have fun living in your little bubble of GOP-only news/propaganda. Honestly, the inability of some people on this thread to even read legitimate opposing media (not talking Michael Moore or The Nation here) is sad.

[/quote]

I have the Assassins Gate sitting next to my chair. I hope to start reading it in a few days.

I have read a big pile of books on the war and have yet to find a single person that makes any real case for keeping the Sunni army together.

Everyone knows they are the backbone of the enemy. It is fantasy to think that keeping them in power would have been a good move.

I stay out of the blogosphere to avoid the slanted right and left wing crap but it looks like you spend a lot of time there.

My opinions are purely my own.

I noticed you wrote earlier that Rummy has become bored with Iraq. This flies in the face of the rest of the crap. If he was bored with it he would stay out of it and let the generals do what they want. They are claiming he is micromanaging the Iraq War. I am not sure how you can reconcile this.

[quote]ExNole wrote:
hedo wrote:
GDollars37 wrote:
hedo wrote:

One of my blanket statements? This entire thread is covered in them don’t you think?

Kind of getting circular isn’t it? As I explained before I don’t have a problem with the message but the timing is all wrong and suspect. These messengers are dead to their peers now anyway.

Since you asked I’ll give my two cents on the “warplan”. Initially I liked it. The Thunder Run to Baghdad worked as planned. The military was defeated quickly and without a lot of civilian deaths. The population however was not defeated.

You can’t “defeat the population.” What do you mean by that?

The insurgency came from the population.

They should have been much more firm, martial law should have been tougher. An occupied people will never love you. They need to respect you however. They will respect you out of fear. The military would never support such actions anymore. The civilian leadership would never propose it.

YOu can be tough and then reward the population for good behavior. You can’t ratchet things up once control is lost.

Absolutely.

One way or another they have to feel defeated and that resistance is hopeless.

I think the situation has now been blown way out of proportion and the country divided needlessly.

What, you think Iraq’s a happy little country with just a few bad apples sprinkled in one geographic area? I hope you’re not naive enough to subscribe to that kind of Fox News whitewashing.

And as for America being divided, that’s mostly due to an anti-military (some would say anti-American, I would only go that far with regards to Michael Moore and some of the real crazies) Democratic Party.

But Bush can’t escape blame after relentlessly politicizing the war. Instead of trying to unify the nation against our enemies, he used the war as a political tool to hammer the Democrats (see the union clause in the Homeland Security bill, which was used to label Democrats as unpatriotic and defeat people like Max Cleland).

A strong military leader could fix these issues but I don’t see one on the horizon. I’m talking on the order of a MacArthur or an Eisenhower. Maybe a Stormin Norman in his day. I don’t think the civilian leadership has the support right now for further action and that will cost us in the Middle East in the long run.

fyi - the proper way for a retired general to voice his concernes is to the secretary directly. He could also speak at one of the war colleges, in front of his peers, and have his ideas debated by other leaders. Experienced Generals are always welcomed at these types of forums. These men are hardly worthy of praise. The media is hardly the proper forum.

I didn’t say “can’t defeat the populations” I said they “were not defeated”. If they were defeated then an insurgency would not have happened.

That’s institutional and would not have happened in any warplan that I read about.

The Iraqi population never felt they were defeated. They had hope in the insurgency, hope that one side or the other would prevail and throw out the Americans at some point.

Do you believe the CNN crap that Iraq is about to explode into civil war? Still hasn’t happened. The truth is somewhere in the middle. To believe only what fits into your preconcieved conclusion is simplistic.

Compared to other modern civil wars, El Salvador (100,000 dead) and Algeria (200,000 dead) in avg deaths per day, Iraq is already worse. There is major sectarian violence, and many experts have already said that what is going on now is already a civil war. [/quote]

Just as many experts say they are not having a civil war and will not in the forseeable future.

[quote]hedo wrote:
Just as many experts say they are not having a civil war and will not in the forseeable future.
[/quote]

This is a good point, and Hedo, I’m not directing my comments at you though I’m quoting this quip.

I think the time has come to realize that any topic will have an equal number of promoters and detractors in the current day and age.

There are always people who are willing to go on record supporting one political party or another on any topic, at any level.

I think it is encumbent upon us to realize that the fact that there are people on both side of an issue has nothing to do with the validity or seriousness of the issue.

Obviously, for most, the political play of the day, every day, is to find equally impressive and opposing experts to counter anything you don’t agree with.

This is true in global warming, whether or not there will be a civil war in Iraq, whether or not we should go into Iran, and so on.

Truth? How the hell is the average person every supposed to figure out the truth in this day and age?

Anyone who is railing for Rumsfeld’s resignation should consider this: who would replace him? And please, consider generally only somewhat likely people, i.e. not McCain, or Lieberman.

If Rumsfeld were to step down and were replaced by a Pentagon insider, would that make you happier?

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Anyone who is railing for Rumsfeld’s resignation should consider this: who would replace him? And please, consider generally only somewhat likely people, i.e. not McCain, or Lieberman.

If Rumsfeld were to step down and were replaced by a Pentagon insider, would that make you happier?[/quote]

It depends on whether this hypothetical insider is more devoted to “transforming” the military than winning the war we are fighting now.

[quote]vroom wrote:
hedo wrote:
Just as many experts say they are not having a civil war and will not in the forseeable future.

This is a good point, and Hedo, I’m not directing my comments at you though I’m quoting this quip.

I think the time has come to realize that any topic will have an equal number of promoters and detractors in the current day and age.

There are always people who are willing to go on record supporting one political party or another on any topic, at any level.

I think it is encumbent upon us to realize that the fact that there are people on both side of an issue has nothing to do with the validity or seriousness of the issue.

Obviously, for most, the political play of the day, every day, is to find equally impressive and opposing experts to counter anything you don’t agree with.

This is true in global warming, whether or not there will be a civil war in Iraq, whether or not we should go into Iran, and so on.

Truth? How the hell is the average person every supposed to figure out the truth in this day and age?

[/quote]

By filtering out bias and politics where possible and looking for experts and opinions that are honest. Not saying it’s easy.

[quote]vroom wrote:
hedo wrote:
Just as many experts say they are not having a civil war and will not in the forseeable future.

This is a good point, and Hedo, I’m not directing my comments at you though I’m quoting this quip.

I think the time has come to realize that any topic will have an equal number of promoters and detractors in the current day and age.

There are always people who are willing to go on record supporting one political party or another on any topic, at any level.

I think it is encumbent upon us to realize that the fact that there are people on both side of an issue has nothing to do with the validity or seriousness of the issue.

Obviously, for most, the political play of the day, every day, is to find equally impressive and opposing experts to counter anything you don’t agree with.

This is true in global warming, whether or not there will be a civil war in Iraq, whether or not we should go into Iran, and so on.

Truth? How the hell is the average person every supposed to figure out the truth in this day and age?

[/quote]

Good point Vroom and I agree. At the end of the day everyone has to make up their own mind.

I will admit, however, the debate is fun and I’ve particularly enjoyed the discussion on this thread.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
If Rumsfeld were to step down and were replaced by a Pentagon insider, would that make you happier?[/quote]

Could it at least be someone who served in the military and saw combat?

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
GDollars37 wrote:

Disbanding the Iraqi army was the only call.

It was dominated by the Sunni. They were the problem before the invasion, they were a problem during the invasion and they are a major problem now. Nobody truly believes keeping the Sunni dominated army together would have been a good idea.

You don’t know what you’re talking about here. Read something serious, policy not politics, on Iraq and the debates both before and during the invasion. Take a week and read The Assassins’ Gate, and then come tell me “Nobody truly believes keeping the Sunni dominated army together would have been a good idea.” Or don’t read it, and have fun living in your little bubble of GOP-only news/propaganda. Honestly, the inability of some people on this thread to even read legitimate opposing media (not talking Michael Moore or The Nation here) is sad.

I have the Assassins Gate sitting next to my chair. I hope to start reading it in a few days.
[/quote]

Hope you like it. I’ll be surprised if you don’t find it eye-opening.

Then I’m real curious what you’re reading. And the officer corps was Sunni-dominated, of course, but the conscript enlisted men were largely Shiite. Instead of being paid and kept out of trouble they probably constitute significant portions of the militias of Sadr, the Dawa Party, SCIRI and the rest.

Bullshit. Unless you’ve not only been to Iraq but also spent a great deal of time outside the Green Zone and outside any of the sprawling military bases, your opinion rests on what you read and hear. You may not parrot someone else’s words exactly, but you are synthesizing information and developing an opinion based on what others say and write, just like the rest of us.

And there’s plenty of good information online, but I stay away from the blogs and news sites that are slavishly devoted to one party or the other, be they Powerline and the Belmont Club or MoveOn and the Daily Kos. You don’t get much of the truth at those places.

[quote]
I noticed you wrote earlier that Rummy has become bored with Iraq. This flies in the face of the rest of the crap. If he was bored with it he would stay out of it and let the generals do what they want. They are claiming he is micromanaging the Iraq War. I am not sure how you can reconcile this.[/quote]

He’s a micromanager while we’re in there, no one disputes that, but he’d like to get us out of there ASAP. Tough to transform the military when you have to pour your money into annoying things like disability benefits and armoring Humvees.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
ExNole wrote:

The media is where people are tried in this administration. Libby kept his job until his indictment, no one in the administration cared he leaked the info, only that he got caught and put on TV. …

You are 100% wrong. Bush cares nothing for media attention and polls.

Libby would still be working if he were not indicted.

The media pressure on Rumsfeld will not drive him out but it may make our enemies think they are winning.[/quote]

You are quite mistaken. Bush has nothing but contempt for the establisment media, but cares very very much about his public image mediated through the press. He cares very much about controlling and influencing public opinion and the terms of the public debate.

Take for example every single choreographed, selected audience town hall meeting with scripted questions, the type of thing in meetings with tropps, “Mission Accomplished”. Every meeting with the press is planned to the detail to achieve a very specific effect, which is directed at the viewing public, not the media who are being directly interacted with.

Labeling dissenters as enablers of the enemy and every perfectly timed terror alert serve the same purpose. The administration cares very much about their image in the media, but very little for the persons of the media. Their only interaction with most of the country is through Fox News or CNN and they make every 30 second photo op count.

[quote]hedo wrote:
vroom wrote:
hedo wrote:
Just as many experts say they are not having a civil war and will not in the forseeable future.

This is a good point, and Hedo, I’m not directing my comments at you though I’m quoting this quip.

I think the time has come to realize that any topic will have an equal number of promoters and detractors in the current day and age.

There are always people who are willing to go on record supporting one political party or another on any topic, at any level.

I think it is encumbent upon us to realize that the fact that there are people on both side of an issue has nothing to do with the validity or seriousness of the issue.

Obviously, for most, the political play of the day, every day, is to find equally impressive and opposing experts to counter anything you don’t agree with.

This is true in global warming, whether or not there will be a civil war in Iraq, whether or not we should go into Iran, and so on.

Truth? How the hell is the average person every supposed to figure out the truth in this day and age?

Good point Vroom and I agree. At the end of the day everyone has to make up their own mind.

I will admit, however, the debate is fun and I’ve particularly enjoyed the discussion on this thread.

[/quote]

Likewise.

Very good post on the Belgravia Dispatch, titled “Let the Swift-Boating of the Generals Begin,” on the generals and Rumsfeld, it’s long but I recommend reading all of it:

http://www.belgraviadispatch.com/

Most notably:

Army Maj. Gen. Charles H. Swannack Jr., the commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, who spent much of the year in western Iraq, said he believes that at the tactical level at which fighting occurs, the U.S. military is still winning. But when asked whether he believes the United States is losing, he said, “I think strategically, we are.”

Swannack is another general who added his voice to the chorus a couple days ago. The important thing is the date on that paragraph: a May 2004 Washington Post article. These men, as I’ve said many times, didn’t just come out of the blue, nor did they fail to speak up, internally or otherwise, months or years ago.

I’ll suggest a good source that is fairly non-political although pro-military.

Strategypage.com

I find the analysis insightful and well informed. Austin Bay and James Dunnigan are the major contributors. Harold Hutchinson is also a regular.

Give them a read…see what you think.

[quote]GDollars37 wrote:

Then I’m real curious what you’re reading. And the officer corps was Sunni-dominated, of course, but the conscript enlisted men were largely Shiite. Instead of being paid and kept out of trouble they probably constitute significant portions of the militias of Sadr, the Dawa Party, SCIRI and the rest.
…[/quote]

These guys are not at the heart of the problem.

The problem is primarily Sunnis and foreign fighters to a lesser extent.

It’s good that “swift-boating” is now a recognized verb, it will perhaps devalue the tactic in future elections…

[quote]hedo wrote:
I’ll suggest a good source that is fairly non-political although pro-military.

Strategypage.com

I find the analysis insightful and well informed. Austin Bay and James Dunnigan are the major contributors. Harold Hutchinson is also a regular.

Give them a read…see what you think.[/quote]

Yeah, I’ve read them in the past, I generally like Bay’s stuff. My gripe is that they sometimes come across as scattershot, address an issue very quickly and move on in a hurry. And the site is badly organized. But they can have some interesting stuff to say.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
GDollars37 wrote:

Then I’m real curious what you’re reading. And the officer corps was Sunni-dominated, of course, but the conscript enlisted men were largely Shiite. Instead of being paid and kept out of trouble they probably constitute significant portions of the militias of Sadr, the Dawa Party, SCIRI and the rest.

These guys are not at the heart of the problem.

The problem is primarily Sunnis and foreign fighters to a lesser extent.

[/quote]

Speaking of Strategypage, they had this to say:

"One of the key decisions the government-that-doesn’t-exist-yet has to make, is what to do with the Shia and Kurd militias. There are two each, and the two Shia militias, those of the Badr and Sadr organizations, both backed by Iranian factions, are the most dangerous. The Shia militias represent Shia political parties that want to run the government. Not a democratic government, but a religious dictatorship

The two Shia militias are basically religious gangs, whose crimes are now seen as more of a problem than the declining violence of the Sunni Arab terrorists. For nearly three years, these Shia religious radicals were considered an asset. While the Shia radicals in southern Iraq are protected by the 10,000 armed men of the Badr Brigade (a part of (SCIRI, or the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), a smaller, but similar organization exists in central Iraq. This is the Mahdi Army, led by Muqtada al Sadr. This group tried to fight the U.S. forces, and lost big time. The Mahdi Army only has a few thousand armed men, and they have made themselves very popular in the Shia community by fighting the Sunni Arab gangs and terrorists that went after the millions of Shia Arabs living central Iraq."

The Shia militias are very much a problem. They don’t fight us openly as much, but they are mostly pushing for an Islamic state governed by sharia, and their death squads (targeting Sunnis) both make a civil war more likely and help drive more Sunnis into the arms of the insurgents.

[quote]GDollars37 wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
GDollars37 wrote:

Then I’m real curious what you’re reading. And the officer corps was Sunni-dominated, of course, but the conscript enlisted men were largely Shiite. Instead of being paid and kept out of trouble they probably constitute significant portions of the militias of Sadr, the Dawa Party, SCIRI and the rest.

These guys are not at the heart of the problem.

The problem is primarily Sunnis and foreign fighters to a lesser extent.

Speaking of Strategypage, they had this to say:

"One of the key decisions the government-that-doesn’t-exist-yet has to make, is what to do with the Shia and Kurd militias. There are two each, and the two Shia militias, those of the Badr and Sadr organizations, both backed by Iranian factions, are the most dangerous. The Shia militias represent Shia political parties that want to run the government. Not a democratic government, but a religious dictatorship

The two Shia militias are basically religious gangs, whose crimes are now seen as more of a problem than the declining violence of the Sunni Arab terrorists. For nearly three years, these Shia religious radicals were considered an asset. While the Shia radicals in southern Iraq are protected by the 10,000 armed men of the Badr Brigade (a part of (SCIRI, or the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), a smaller, but similar organization exists in central Iraq. This is the Mahdi Army, led by Muqtada al Sadr. This group tried to fight the U.S. forces, and lost big time. The Mahdi Army only has a few thousand armed men, and they have made themselves very popular in the Shia community by fighting the Sunni Arab gangs and terrorists that went after the millions of Shia Arabs living central Iraq."

The Shia militias are very much a problem. They don’t fight us openly as much, but they are mostly pushing for an Islamic state governed by sharia, and their death squads (targeting Sunnis) both make a civil war more likely and help drive more Sunnis into the arms of the insurgents.[/quote]

If you think keeping the former Shia conscripts in the Iraqi army would have prevented them from siding with their own people I think you are mistaken.

We have had enough trouble weeding the bad ones out of the new police force and army. Just keeping the old ones in would have been no help at all.