Its above my pay grade too (at least as far as politics goes), but I agree. It’s just hard to determine how much to expand the error bars. It’s a long tailed problem
It is.
I am sort of paraphrasing here; but CBS stated that they were putting more people “on-the-ground” this time around, trying to get a better “feel” for what was really going on with people because there were so many people wrong in 2016. They also have included more “parameters” in their statistical analyses?
While all of this is well and good…you don’t know what people will ultimately mark on a ballot or press on a screen. I think 1) the continued riots are all in Trump’s favor 2) Right-wing and Russian misinformation and propaganda is by many magnitudes more effective than anything coming from the Left 3) Trump’s “negatives” have already been firmly factored into the public psyche and 4) the population of “closet” Trump voters is larger than many think, making what people “say” or “report” almost useless.
I really don’t think that Polls do (or can?) factor in many of these types of things.
And like many of these Polls…I could be wrong…
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Ginsberg dead. The Kavanaugh hearings are going to look like a storm in a teacup in comparison to this.
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I agree with your conclusion.
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Incredibly sad. She was indeed one of a kind. Notorious RBG indeed.
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It is indeed. Incredibly tough lady. Cancer is a curse.
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Republicans thought the next President should pick the justice when Obama had just under a year left. Now with a short time until the next election they are at least going to flirt with seeing if they can get it done just in case.
This is the side who complained about the national debt and Obamacare for 8 years and then ran someone who pushed universal health care and defaulting on the debt though. They will have zero problems rationalizing it.
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Come now, H. Can’t I make fun of an actual cannibal without it descending into something tawdry like politics?
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Are you ready for the next SCJOTUS?
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Well, we did elect a game show host as president so who knows?
We are living in crazy times.
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‘May you live in interesting times’ so goes the apocryphal Chinese curse.
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Honestly, I’m all for conservative judges but I’ll be on that train in a heartbeat if it comes to that before the election.
And as much as I love the McCartney/Lennon songwriting duo, that is a shitty ass song lol.
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The song is moral applesauce. It is among my least favourite songs ever put to track.
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Amen and Hallelujah lol
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that was before the Dems promised to abolish the fillibuster if they won the Senate. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Are you claiming polls are irrelevant? If so, it’ll just be one more thing you believe that is not based on any facts.
Regardless, I wasn’t making a claim that you are pretending I’m making. I’m challenging the notions polls have moved to Trumps favor when the evidence does not support that claim.
That wasn’t my claim if you’re speaking of me. Not directly. I was actually focused on Pelosi’s feel for a shift in attitudes (seen in polling) towards BLM. Trump is an afterthought I tossed in at the end. I think he will profit off of it as BLM continues to slide in public perception. Here, I’m not even saying he wins. Though I strongly suspect he will. In any event, it will not be the easy win for Biden it could have been.
Edit:
I think there is more of the shy Trump voter this year than even last election.
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Yeah Trump is the stupid prize we all won. It’s hypocrisy but incredibly expected from Republicans who have shown they don’t have an ounce of integrity. I mean they don’t have anything they are even for other than “Whatever Trump wants today.”