I was having a discussion today with a national guardsman about the topic of this thread. The interesting thing he brought up was, if the slope does get slippery, and confiscation ever does occur, he will not obey orders to do so.
I can see many in military and law enforcement taking similar stances.
[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:
I was having a discussion today with a national guardsman about the topic of this thread. The interesting thing he brought up was, if the slope does get slippery, and confiscation ever does occur, he will not obey orders to do so.
I can see many in military and law enforcement taking similar stances. [/quote]
I don’t personally believe that we’ll see the Second Amendment overturned anytime soon, hence I don’t see forced confiscation en masse on the imminent horizon.
With that having been said, while there may be room for debate on how longitudinal the statistics are, some recent data has indicated that American gun ownership and hunting rates are each at or near record lows. I teach social sciences to adolescent millennials in a fairly rural, mostly conservative area. While entirely anecdotal and limited to only one localized observation, I’ve never, at any point in my career, seen this demographic so open to embracing fairly radical gun control, including repeal or abolition of the Second Amendment. Kids who come from homes where an adult owns or possesses a firearm are now in the minority if class polls are to be believed. This seems to be the sentiment on a national scale, at least from reading the comments on social media, discussion boards, and comment sections of various news stories.
I realize that absolutely none of this is scientific data in any way, but coupled with the recent headlines about seemingly endless “mass shootings,” increasingly negative press about the NRA, and an ever increasing number of Americans who are removed from being reared in an environment where firearms were owned for weapon and/or sport, and thus taught to be respected from the youngest of ages, I don’t see the future ending well. There is a faction of the pro-gun crowd that is absolutist in sentiment as well, as I think this helps the opposition more than it helps the pro-gun advocates, from a public policy standpoint. I’m happy to be wrong, as I am a gun owner myself, and this is entirely conjecture based on my own observations, but this another issue that I see America moving increasingly statist on in the coming decades. No, I don’t think 38 states will effectively repeal the Second Amendment, but one or more of the following is likely: federal firearms registration and licensing (could even become tests that need to be passed), a much broader regulation of or outright ban on presently legal semi-automatic weapons (e.g., my .223 Ruger mini-14), much stricter regulation on the size of clips for many contemporary firearms, or a much more liberal judicial interpretation of what thus far has been legally unattainable regulation on either a state or a federal basis. In short, I highly doubt that firearm ownership as we presently know it will continue unabated. These will sometime not so far down the road be remembered a the good ol’ days. The public support just doesn’t seem to be going in a positive direction, but you have to look beyond your own immediate local demographic if you’re in a very pro-gun area of the country.
[quote]pushharder wrote:
[quote]twojarslave wrote:
Back on topic, every LEO I’ve ever discussed the issue with was firmly in favor of private citizen CC. Can’t say I queried them on a lot more than that, but they were all pretty firmly pro-2nd. Since getting my CC permit, I’ve never once had a ticket issued to me in three times being stopped. Coincidence? Perhaps, but I sure as hell didn’t get out of going 20 over, no registration or proof of insurance on hand (directly in front of the police station, no less) for my good looks.
In my broader experience, elected LEO’s just seem to tow whatever political line suits them, regardless of their personal beliefs. No shocker there.
Besides, there’s no need to speculate on this when someone went and figured it out. This is the best information I’ve found on the topic. A comprehensive survey of verified LEO’s.
11 key lessons:
Executive Summary and link to full survey:
By the way, this post was an excellent one because it pretty much summarizes the answer to Muf’s original post. Read the links. Overwhelmingly convincing.
[/quote]
Thanks.
I’ve never come across a more convincing or comprehensive survey of LEO’s on this topic, which is probably why most people have never heard about it.
If only I had arrived sooner, this could have been a one-page thread.
[quote]JR249 wrote:
[quote]Alrightmiami19c wrote:
I was having a discussion today with a national guardsman about the topic of this thread. The interesting thing he brought up was, if the slope does get slippery, and confiscation ever does occur, he will not obey orders to do so.
I can see many in military and law enforcement taking similar stances. [/quote]
I don’t personally believe that we’ll see the Second Amendment overturned anytime soon, hence I don’t see forced confiscation en masse on the imminent horizon.
With that having been said, while there may be room for debate on how longitudinal the statistics are, some recent data has indicated that American gun ownership and hunting rates are each at or near record lows. I teach social sciences to adolescent millennials in a fairly rural, mostly conservative area. While entirely anecdotal and limited to only one localized observation, I’ve never, at any point in my career, seen this demographic so open to embracing fairly radical gun control, including repeal or abolition of the Second Amendment. Kids who come from homes where an adult owns or possesses a firearm are now in the minority if class polls are to be believed. This seems to be the sentiment on a national scale, at least from reading the comments on social media, discussion boards, and comment sections of various news stories.
I realize that absolutely none of this is scientific data in any way, but coupled with the recent headlines about seemingly endless “mass shootings,” increasingly negative press about the NRA, and an ever increasing number of Americans who are removed from being reared in an environment where firearms were owned for weapon and/or sport, and thus taught to be respected from the youngest of ages, I don’t see the future ending well. There is a faction of the pro-gun crowd that is absolutist in sentiment as well, as I think this helps the opposition more than it helps the pro-gun advocates, from a public policy standpoint. I’m happy to be wrong, as I am a gun owner myself, and this is entirely conjecture based on my own observations, but this another issue that I see America moving increasingly statist on in the coming decades. No, I don’t think 38 states will effectively repeal the Second Amendment, but one or more of the following is likely: federal firearms registration and licensing (could even become tests that need to be passed), a much broader regulation of or outright ban on presently legal semi-automatic weapons (e.g., my .223 Ruger mini-14), much stricter regulation on the size of clips for many contemporary firearms, or a much more liberal judicial interpretation of what thus far has been legally unattainable regulation on either a state or a federal basis. In short, I highly doubt that firearm ownership as we presently know it will continue unabated. These will sometime not so far down the road be remembered a the good ol’ days. The public support just doesn’t seem to be going in a positive direction, but you have to look beyond your own immediate local demographic if you’re in a very pro-gun area of the country.[/quote]
I have to disagree with where public perception is on gun culture in general. Kids tend to be pretty shortsighted when it comes to things like personal liberty. They still have the concept of an attainable utopia in their minds, and that’s fine, they’re kids. But I have seen in the past few years peers of mine that grew up in semi-urban areas that have no interest in firearms, become very involved in gun culture. Whether it be a friend buying his first shotgun, a married couple buying pistols together, or a woman getting her CCW. None of these people, all in their 20’s, come from hunting or shooting families. People tend to grow out of the “guns are bad” mentality once reason and reality kick in.
As far as potential federal registration and restrictions on particular guns this is how New Yorkers responded New York SAFE Act gun registration numbers are released
[quote]pushharder wrote:
My data can beat up your data: Self-Reported Gun Ownership in U.S. Is Highest Since 1993
[/quote]
Well, then you’ve got data that says otherwise: U.S. Gun Ownership Declines, which also seems to be supported by Pew Research Center: Section 3: Gun Ownership Trends and Demographics | Pew Research Center
The Gallup Poll, if it’s accurate, is available pre-1993 on a couple of other sites and would suggest fluctuations back and forth that, while cyclical in nature and showing no major decline when averaged over the last 4-5 decades, also shows little, if any, growth either. I haven’t actually dissected the statistical data gathering measures that all of these entities have employed, though I’m more wary of self-reported data, as it’s just about like self-reported caloric intake. I have no idea where the actual truth lies, because you can make statistics say just about anything you want. It seems like some of them are using fairly small sample sizes though.
[quote]pushharder wrote:
The reason, I believe, that feel the way you do here is that you listen/read/watch too much MSM. [/quote]
I’m pretty much a minimalist, so I don’t have access to the paid cable networks, e.g., FOX, MSNBC, CNN, etc. I only get local network stations that are available via digital broadcast reception, though it’s no mystery to me that NBC itself has a left leaning bias where some of its national news is concerned. I do occasionally read the major newspapers, but I also check out Drudge and Real Clear Politics from time to time. My observations in the classroom are just based on how the opinions of the students have generally gotten more anti-gun over time, but this is admittedly only in one limited setting. The fact that we’ve become more urban and generally, albeit gradually, more statist and progressive on a lot of other issues influences the direction I think a lot of this may go. As I stated previously, I’m not at all disappointed to be wrong here. I have no vested interest in seeing the encroachment of draconian gun control legislation, but I do predict that we’ll see more of it in the future.
Push,
A threshold question before I get started - do you get anything right?
- 48 or 49 states have language firmer than the infringement language of the Second Amendment, you say? Well, as we have been reminded from this entire exchange, Push just makes shit up.
The following states do not have a constitutional right to bear arms: California, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, Iowa, and Maryland. And never have (which will impact something addresutsed below). Virginia - the first state in the Union to have a constitution - didn’t have one until 1971.
Want to own up to this falsehood? Or just leave it and add it to your increasingly pile?
- All the (historical) state firearm laws were in violation of their own state constitutions? A stupid claim, even by your standards. First, you’d have to know each state’s constitution (which you don’t), more importantly the states mentioned above that have never had a right to bear arms (Virginia included) couldn’t have passed state laws in violation of their state constitution’s right to bear arms.
Moreover, such laws weren’t limited to race restrictions (which were tragic, but constitutional). They also involved loyalty restrictions, prohibitions on concealed weapons, storage of arms, and other things. Plenty of restrictions in the name of public safety that had nothing to do with race. And they were generally compliant with their state constitutions (in many cases because state constitutions were amended to expressly allow the legislature to regulate how arms were borne, or carried).
And no, you didn’t “teach” me anything. You can’t teach what you don’t know. Hell, you didn’t even know the Second Amendment didn’t apply to the states until you learned it in that thread. So can it with the boasting abi ut how much you KNOW. If we’ve learned anything, it’s that you know far less than you hope to convince us all with your empty swaggering, and at this point, we have a hard time believing any claim you put forward (see No. 1 above).
- Nope, I don’t get my information from Hollywood - I get it from actual history (you should look into it). History - not half-educated ebooks making shit up - tells us places like Dodge City had “no carry” within city limits. The famous gunfight at Tombstone? The Earps were going to bust the McLaury brothers and Ike Clanton for violating an ordinance prohibiting the carrying of deadly weapons within city limits.
Now, I suspect none of this was covered in “Unintended Consequences” - why would it? It’s actual history - but it’s nothing you couldn’t fix by incurring a few late fees at the local public library.
…
Now that I am done with Push, a general point: why care about the history, the Fourteenth Amendment, etc.? Because the debate isn’t settled. And look no further than abortion as where the future lies.
When the Supreme Court recognized the right to abortion in Roe V. Wade, half the country was outraged on the theory that no such constitutional right exists and have done everything in their power at the state level (over time) to erode the right through burdens on the exercise of the right. To this day, they are doing it.
No different for the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Second Amendment. But it will be magnified by the fact that the Supreme Court already recognizes that “reasonable restrictions” will be ok, so the barrage of legislation is coming. And when states get challenged on such laws, they will have this originalist argument to rely on as well as the custom of state regulation in this space. You can count it.
Perfect example? Not even as long ago as Monday the Second Circuit upheld most of New York’ s SAFE Act, passed after Newtown, all based on a state’s compelling interest in public safety. “Reasonable restrictions” will be before the Supreme Court soon.
And all it will take is one vote. Think Kennedy couldn’t we swayed by the originalist-themed argument?
Well-armed citizens make our job a whole lot easier. I never took a report from a victim that was carrying.
[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
And all it will take is one vote. Think Kennedy couldn’t we swayed by the originalist-themed argument?
[/quote]
Or like this judge will he ignore “the sorts of weapons” in “common use” and “typically possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes”?
Since 80s, If hundreds of millions of guns have been purchased according to known applications of FBI background checks & household ownership is also down;
Are only a few people buying a lot of guns or are many sandbagging in the fear of some future confiscation?