The Iranian Situation

Off Topic Politics and World Issues
41

[quote]Rockscar wrote:
We have to do everything possible to keep the Isrelis out of engagement. This will cause the biggest holy war we’ve seen…ever.[/quote]

The middle east, rather the islamo-facist cowards that have stained that historic land, is scared shitless of Israel. Israel has kicked the shit out of any and all comers in the region.

The only reason the cowardly bastards known as radical islam is talking so much shit about Israel right now is becasue of the tight leash that the U.S. has on the jewish state.

Give Israel 48 hours off the leash with no fear of U.S. retribution, and see what happens over there. There will be no more Iranian nuclear threat.

42

Actually, the main reason that the U.S. wants (or needs) to move on Iran has to do with the impending opening of the Iranian Oil Bourse in March which will trade only in euros. That means that countries around the world will no longer need to keep large stockpiles (in bank accounts of course) of U.S. currency in order to buy oil on the world market.

Regardless of the reasons, though, I suggest that anyone who believes that the “military option is on the table” do a google search for the Russian-made Sunburn anti-ship cruise missile. After you read all about this weapon that is possessed by both China and Iran, you tell me if you think it would be wise to attack Iran. The entire Straight of Hormuz is rimmed by Sunburn launchers. Iran could wipe out every U.S. naval vessel in the Persian Gulf and block the SOH in a matter of minutes. Just to tip you off on what to look for in your google search, the U.S. has no current defense against the Sunburn.

And does anyone remember the F-117 that was shot down over Yugoslavia in 1999? The radar/missile combo that brought down that F-117 is currently deployed en masse in Iran. Make no mistake folks, Iran isn’t the military equivalent of China, but we will pay dearly if we take them on. No cakewalks here. If you don’t respect your enemy, you’ve already lost the battle.

Do your homework before you jump on the "RA RA RA’ bandwagon. The lives of U.S. sailors and pilots are at stake.

43

Jeff-with-a-G, great post, you make some very valid points, and Im sure that most of us did not know of this sunburn that you speak of. The sad part of all these impending confrontations is, that we usually announce that were coming well enoough in advance that any country with even reasonable intelligence would be able to posture against us in some way, for instance the W.M.D, in Iraq, Saddam had them, he was just one step ahead of us so that he could move everything before we got there. The same goes for Iran, Im sure they have the Germans over there now, building some of those underground fortresses, stocked with enough staples to be able to survive long enough to do us serious harm.

44

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Rockscar wrote:
We have to do everything possible to keep the Isrelis out of engagement. This will cause the biggest holy war we’ve seen…ever.

The middle east, rather the islamo-facist cowards that have stained that historic land, is scared shitless of Israel. Israel has kicked the shit out of any and all comers in the region.

The only reason the cowardly bastards known as radical islam is talking so much shit about Israel right now is becasue of the tight leash that the U.S. has on the jewish state.

Give Israel 48 hours off the leash with no fear of U.S. retribution, and see what happens over there. There will be no more Iranian nuclear threat.[/quote]

That hit the nail right on the head!Israel could handle the situation with ease.The Israelis will not tolerate a nuclear Iran,period.

45

Nobody’s gonna bomb anyone, but the US will put sanctions on Iran further alienating the people of Iran.
Then they will start trouble between Azerbaijan and Iran then they will cause tension between other provinces in Iran like Khuzestan people near the border with Iraq, probably tell em some shit like go get some land which has lots of oil which is your, pretty much like what the US did with Saddam and Kuwait. Then after around 5years of sanctions and trouble in various provinces they’ll have Iran in a choke hold.

And in the long term absofuckinglutely nothing will be fixed. A country would become destabilised like Iraq further creating room for more and more nutjobs who feel the west is meddling and withholding their rights.
But then again who gives a fuck they’re all crazy muslims who think we’re infidels…huh?

46

You two sound like a couple of 6yo with a bunch of Trump cards in your hand with various figures like
Number of nukes:
Number of troops:
Number of tanks:
Number of jets:
this is POLITICS, the dirty world of POLITICS not a fucking card game.

[quote]Jimmy T wrote:
rainjack wrote:
Rockscar wrote:
We have to do everything possible to keep the Isrelis out of engagement. This will cause the biggest holy war we’ve seen…ever.

The middle east, rather the islamo-facist cowards that have stained that historic land, is scared shitless of Israel. Israel has kicked the shit out of any and all comers in the region.

The only reason the cowardly bastards known as radical islam is talking so much shit about Israel right now is becasue of the tight leash that the U.S. has on the jewish state.

Give Israel 48 hours off the leash with no fear of U.S. retribution, and see what happens over there. There will be no more Iranian nuclear threat.

That hit the nail right on the head!Israel could handle the situation with ease.The Israelis will not tolerate a nuclear Iran,period.
[/quote]

47

Jeff G,

Here is a link to a discussion of countermeasures for the Sunburn Missle. It’s not exactly cutting edge technology. The USN has a three layer defense to defeat this weapon. The most effective being at least 130 miles away and destoying the launch platform before it is fired.

http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/200552912425.asp

The F-117 that was downed was shot down with some cold war era technology. Cmdr. Zoltan used over 200 men and a battery of missles and network of spies to shoot down 1 stealth aircraft. We will not make the same mistakes again. Here’s a link that discusses this impressive accomplishment by a highly trained and experienced anti-air officer. The Iranians have never defended against Stealth Technology and the
F-117 isn’t the only type we have.

Nobody is taking the Iranians lightly that is for sure. We also shouldn’t assign them super soldier status. Fixed fortifications are a monument to the stupidity of man. It may be a hard battle but it will be brief and one sided. That is the pace of modern warfare. Trying to occupy them may be a harder proposition but defeating their military is a foregone conclusion. That’s why they want a nuke…to make that harder to do.

Interesting debate however. Unfortunately I don’t think a diplomatic solution is going to happen and we are all going to see how right or wrong we are.

48

[quote]shorty_blitz wrote:
You two sound like a couple of 6yo with a bunch of Trump cards in your hand with various figures like
Number of nukes:
Number of troops:
Number of tanks:
Number of jets:
this is POLITICS, the dirty world of POLITICS not a fucking card game.
[/quote]

What the fuck are you talking about?

Israel has already bombed the shit out of one of their enemies attempting to get nuclear capabilities. Read up on the facts before you start telling me I’m a six year old with a trump card, sparky. I’ll even give you a hint: June 7, 1981.

If you think it’s just politics with Israel - you must be the 6 year-old.

49

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Gl;itch.e wrote:
I for one believe that they are only interested in nuclear energy…

You are not paying attention.

There are two basic types of nuclear reactors.

The reactors that are used solely to produce power do not refine the uranium enough for nuclear weapons.

Iran has the type of reactor that produces the refined uranium necessary for nuclear weapons. This is only necessary to produce nuclear weapons.

As if this obvious evidence wasn’t enough the UN inspectors recently found a highly classified paper that details how to build the weapon.

There is no doubt they intend to build weapons.
[/quote]
Id like to see some links zap… . Ive read in numerous articles that the Iranians lack the ability to make weapons grade nuclear material since they dont have the thousands of centrifuges necessary… . they also lack the projectile ability to deliver a war head to anyone outside of their neighborhood… . so Israel is perhaps the only ones that should be justifiably scared… . and how stupid would you have to be to drop your one hard made bomb on a country that has a good 100 more bombs and better range than you do? thats a death wish I cant imagine any country having. …

50

[quote]Gl;itch.e wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
Gl;itch.e wrote:
I for one believe that they are only interested in nuclear energy…

You are not paying attention.

There are two basic types of nuclear reactors.

The reactors that are used solely to produce power do not refine the uranium enough for nuclear weapons.

Iran has the type of reactor that produces the refined uranium necessary for nuclear weapons. This is only necessary to produce nuclear weapons.

As if this obvious evidence wasn’t enough the UN inspectors recently found a highly classified paper that details how to build the weapon.

There is no doubt they intend to build weapons.

Id like to see some links zap… . Ive read in numerous articles that the Iranians lack the ability to make weapons grade nuclear material since they dont have the thousands of centrifuges necessary… . they also lack the projectile ability to deliver a war head to anyone outside of their neighborhood… . so Israel is perhaps the only ones that should be justifiably scared… . and how stupid would you have to be to drop your one hard made bomb on a country that has a good 100 more bombs and better range than you do? thats a death wish I cant imagine any country having. …
[/quote]

This stuff has is being reported all the time and I am too tired to search for it online.

51

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:

This stuff has is being reported all the time and I am too tired to search for it online.[/quote]

Ive not heard this on the tv or read about this in a newspaper or online. …

also do you have any knowledge of the petro-dollar zap?

52

[quote]hedo wrote:

GD

Airpower can’t take ground but the recent effectiveness in Afganistan and Iraq cannot be overlooked. I’ll agree we are infatuated with airpower, but in the last few years the true potential has been realized with stealth technology, precision munitions and GPS targeting and guidance linked to high bandwith communication. The developments since 2000 have been revolutionary.

If it moves we can hit it, with one bomb. It’s a world of difference since the Balkans. That means all command and control, depots and massed forces have a very short lifespan. Same for naval forces and fixed military assets. Iranian air defense is good for the middle east. It’s rudimentry against the US or a European air force.

What this means is we can cripple their offensive capability, quickly. We can then choose to destroy any isolated forces. With a change in the rules of engagement we can also drive deeply into Iran. Yes we would have to mobilize ground forces to occupy the country but we don’t want to. We just don’t want them to have nuclear weapons because of their stated objectives.

It would be suicidal for the Iranians to take on the US. They know that. Whether they choose to so is really up to them.

[/quote]

I give this milatary stuff a 30% chance of happening. Probably won’t but you never know Iran. Im sure that Iran will try to move these high value targets to their cities to make themselves look like martyrs so politics would have to come first i would think. I wonder how the other arab states view this and if they will see iran as a martyr or not.

53

[quote]hedo wrote:
Jeff G,

Here is a link to a discussion of countermeasures for the Sunburn Missle. It’s not exactly cutting edge technology. The USN has a three layer defense to defeat this weapon. The most effective being at least 130 miles away and destoying the launch platform before it is fired.

http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/200552912425.asp

The F-117 that was downed was shot down with some cold war era technology. Cmdr. Zoltan used over 200 men and a battery of missles and network of spies to shoot down 1 stealth aircraft. We will not make the same mistakes again. Here’s a link that discusses this impressive accomplishment by a highly trained and experienced anti-air officer. The Iranians have never defended against Stealth Technology and the
F-117 isn’t the only type we have.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/articles/20051121.aspx

Nobody is taking the Iranians lightly that is for sure. We also shouldn’t assign them super soldier status. Fixed fortifications are a monument to the stupidity of man. It may be a hard battle but it will be brief and one sided. That is the pace of modern warfare. Trying to occupy them may be a harder proposition but defeating their military is a foregone conclusion. That’s why they want a nuke…to make that harder to do.

Interesting debate however. Unfortunately I don’t think a diplomatic solution is going to happen and we are all going to see how right or wrong we are.[/quote]

I’ll agree that U.S. naval point defenses and anti-air defenses could bring down a Sunburn—in theory. The Persian Gulf, however poses some unique problems when trying to defend against anti-ship missiles. The first of which is that any U.S. vessel inside the Gulf is within range of the Sunburn which flies at 1500mph at an altitude of 6-9ft above the water and is programmed to conduct last second maneuvers in order to evade point defense systems. You have to be able to see a target coming before you can hit it. And Russia specifically designed this missile to take out U.S. naval vessels equipped with Aegis systems.

The U.S. is so afraid of this missile that Congress tried to pressure Russia economically back in 2000 in order to get them to stop exporting this missile to China and other countries. The U.S. Navy even went as far as a show of force in 2004 in the South China Sea (Operation Summer Pulse) because China was conducting the first ever exercises with their new Russian-made destroyers which are equipped with the Sunburn. U.S. commanders don’t scare easily, but they are scared of this missile. And for damn good reason. The Phalanx system is being phased out and the RAM which is replacing it has never been tested against a weapon with the Sunburn’s capabilities.

My worry is that everyone has gotten very cocky about U.S. military power since Gulf War I. I know for a fact that Iran is NOT Iraq. They have modern weapon systems, and they train with them all the time. That’s something that cannot be said about Iraq. Their systems were old and broken and their troops were poorly trained, poorly equipped and starving in a lot of cases. Iran can give us more than a bloody nose militarily as well as taking the world economy to the cleaners by sinking a ship in the Straight of Hormuz. If 2200 dead in Iraq bothers you, then Iran is not the place for us to be. Attacking Iran is nothing short of a Pandora’s box. Is it really worth it? I don’t think so.

54

Great posts as usual, Jeff_with_a_G … I hope everyone got that about

" the impending opening of the Iranian Oil Bourse in March which will trade only in euros."

Once the world ditches US dollars, and anything that brings us closer to that, the US is stuffed. Suddenly you will have to pay off your debt, and you won’t be able to. This will happen within our lifetime, I give it 5-10 years.

Interesting also the other thread suggesting an attack on Syria, by end of march. Must be good weather around March, for attacking.

Zap you are right that Iran is sending stuff over to Iraq … I believe they had an army of 30,000 they were wanting to send in as soon as the US had made their move on Iraq. NOT against the US, but into Iraq. Iraq is in a civil war, or at least the start of one, you have to pick sides.

And ironically the majority of Iraq would probably welcome help from Iran (speculation on my part) if it meant stablising the country and wreaking total vengeance on the Sunni. Maybe they should put it to a vote : “Do you want to let in Iran? yes or no?” that’s democracy in action.

Taking out Saddam was never going to produce a stable, happy country. Saddam was just one more crazy dictator in a line of crazy dictators, many of whom were supported, installed by the west and then taken out by the west. For all his faults, he was not the only problem, nor even the main problem.

As much as the USA seems to hate Iran, it might have been a good idea to have united with them and used them to help stabilise Iraq.

I honestly think the Iranian president is sabre rattling to appease the more extreme people in his electorate. I think they want nuclear weapons, NOT energy, but I also think they have a right to them as a sovereign nation.

I don’t think they will use them because I don’t think they want a war, just big balls, and more respect, through fear. In USA, you have nukes and it is all “don’t screw with us or we will nuke you”. In Iran I suspect it is more like “give us respect because we could nuke you first”. I think the western world does not want to have to pay them any respect under threat like that, can’t really blame them either.

Iran holds many cards. China and Russia are behind them, Iran can really stuff the price of oil, really they have US by the balls.

I think US would love to invade Iran and Syria and had them on the cards since before Afganistan. However I think Iraq has gone so badly that they may be thinking twice.

Military force is useless. It was either Ghengis or Attila who said “you can conquer a country from horseback, but you cannot rule from horseback”.

Apart from the fact that USA would have a lot of trouble going into Iran at the best of times, let alone with (probably) no support, no case for war, no allies, and most of your forces stuck in Iraq, what’s the big plan if Iran is taken? How you going to establish order there?

You aren’t planning to oust a dictator who oppresses 70% majority of the people, you are planning to oust the deomcratically elected leader and turn 100% of the country against you?

I am just pointing out the obvious. I don’t think USA can do much here and has to face the music.

If I was dictator of USA I would probably say to Russia and China, “you guys - split up the middle east between you”. Let them fight it out. I realise that sounds harsh and cruel to a lot of people, however both China and Russia have seen the light of trade, and I severely doubt either country would want to get involved in a war, but would prefer to build economies and productivity.

55

Wow, you mean there is no ability to conduct currency exchanges? That’s news to me.

56

WOW!!! for the first time since i have seen a thread about the “situation” in Iran, i am actually impressed by the quality of the arguments. finally some people who can look beyond the fact that we are the U.S. and all the power that we hold.

In relevance to the combined powers of nations around the world. we are certainly powerful, but not that powerful, all you gun-ho kill em all and let god sort um out numb skulls are exactly what is wrong with our beautiful country. the foolishness of that mind set makes me want to vomit. who the fuck do you think you are? are you going to step into battle?

most of you are either too old, or not even from this country to be commenting like that anyways. “we should turn the middle east into glass” is one of my favorite hillbilly, sister fukin’, slack jawed comments in these threads. whose “we” jackass’? not your 40 year old ass(nothing against 40 year olds in general) put down the milwakees best, let go of your wifes neck, and shut the fuck up.

the U.S. is not going to be able to push around every country in the world. we are a baby country, sooo young in relation to the other nations of the world. where do we get off telling the world how it is going to behave? who the fuck are we. I LOVE MY COUNTRY AND WOULD DEFEND IT TO THE DEATH, but that doesnt make it right!

Why are we soo afraid of the rest of the world? could it be because we fucked over everybody we have had relation’s with? or because we neglected the others who did not have enough to offer? this subject is getting so tiresome. all i can do is sit back and watch the shit hit the fan. we cannot do anything about it. those in control have cast their lot with the devil.

christians my ass. you sure can do allot when god wills it. god wills me to kick your hillbilly ass, come here. anywho, thanks to those of you with at least half a brain, who can see the error of our ways. i fear all we can do now is wait.“those who cannot remember the past are condemmed to repeat it.”
i am going to the gym now to burn off some steam, before i beat a redneck.

aleku salam.

57

[quote]mazilla wrote:
WOW!!! for the first time since i have seen a thread about the “situation” in Iran, i am actually impressed by the quality of the arguments. finally some people who can look beyond the fact that we are the U.S. and all the power that we hold.

In relevance to the combined powers of nations around the world. we are certainly powerful, but not that powerful, all you gun-ho kill em all and let god sort um out numb skulls are exactly what is wrong with our beautiful country. the foolishness of that mind set makes me want to vomit. who the fuck do you think you are? are you going to step into battle?

most of you are either too old, or not even from this country to be commenting like that anyways. “we should turn the middle east into glass” is one of my favorite hillbilly, sister fukin’, slack jawed comments in these threads. whose “we” jackass’? not your 40 year old ass(nothing against 40 year olds in general) put down the milwakees best, let go of your wifes neck, and shut the fuck up.

the U.S. is not going to be able to push around every country in the world. we are a baby country, sooo young in relation to the other nations of the world. where do we get off telling the world how it is going to behave? who the fuck are we. I LOVE MY COUNTRY AND WOULD DEFEND IT TO THE DEATH, but that doesnt make it right!

Why are we soo afraid of the rest of the world? could it be because we fucked over everybody we have had relation’s with? or because we neglected the others who did not have enough to offer? this subject is getting so tiresome. all i can do is sit back and watch the shit hit the fan. we cannot do anything about it. those in control have cast their lot with the devil.

christians my ass. you sure can do allot when god wills it. god wills me to kick your hillbilly ass, come here. anywho, thanks to those of you with at least half a brain, who can see the error of our ways. i fear all we can do now is wait.“those who cannot remember the past are condemmed to repeat it.”
i am going to the gym now to burn off some steam, before i beat a redneck.

aleku salam.[/quote]

“You always blame America first…”

Your an idiot…

58

mazilla, I can understand where the average American is coming from with not understanding what is going on in the rest of the world, and why their response would be “stuff em, bomb them”. I don’t think the average American wants war or to push around other countries, I think that the media presents things in such a way that it seems hopeless and the only resolution is a violent one. I think there are some parties with a vested interest in promoting this, on both sides.

The situation in Iran is, a clerical influence that is overly fundamentalist in a country with a more moderate majority, especially the youth, who actually want to be a lot more modern and western. The situation with the media is that they are pushing the extremist side of things, probably to rally support for action.

The situation with the president of Iran is that he is a little wee bit of a religious literalist, and he has to look tough in front of the more extremists in the country to stablise his support, and he probably has a few crazy notions as well. But I don’t think he IS crazy.

vroom, “Wow, you mean there is no ability to conduct currency exchanges? That’s news to me.” … you’re kidding, right? it is the exchanging of currency that sets the exchange rate that will kill you. Your currency is currently being propped up by other countries that can - and are looking to - pull the plug at any moment. When they do, and your exchange rate plummets, suddenly everything will get more expensive. Everything.

Your government should in my opinion start pursuing an aggressive building of American manufacturing, those tax breaks for the rich should be cancelled and given to MANUFACTURING, you should be busting your ass to build up that sector to be competitive so that when the exchange rate crashes, and it will, you will already have a chance to take advantage of exporting and it will have a stabilising effect.

Tax breaks for manufacturers, people in the industry with share incentive schemes in the companies etc… and so forth. Instead you’ve got your biggest producers cutting jobs and folding. arghhh

59

Yes, and if that happens, then it will be a lot easier to avoid shipping all of the local jobs overseas.

It is economics. The law of supply and demand. However, I don’t think you are very realistic in terms of thinking anyone is purposely or otherwise propping up the US dollar.

People are investing and purchasing where it makes sense to do so. That will continue to be the case. Fluctions in exchange rates are an expected event.

60

[quote]mazilla wrote:
WOW!!! for the first time since i have seen a thread about the “situation” in Iran, i am actually impressed by the quality of the arguments. finally some people who can look beyond the fact that we are the U.S. and all the power that we hold.

In relevance to the combined powers of nations around the world. we are certainly powerful, but not that powerful, all you gun-ho kill em all and let god sort um out numb skulls are exactly what is wrong with our beautiful country. the foolishness of that mind set makes me want to vomit. who the fuck do you think you are? are you going to step into battle?

most of you are either too old, or not even from this country to be commenting like that anyways. “we should turn the middle east into glass” is one of my favorite hillbilly, sister fukin’, slack jawed comments in these threads. whose “we” jackass’? not your 40 year old ass(nothing against 40 year olds in general) put down the milwakees best, let go of your wifes neck, and shut the fuck up.

the U.S. is not going to be able to push around every country in the world. we are a baby country, sooo young in relation to the other nations of the world. where do we get off telling the world how it is going to behave? who the fuck are we. I LOVE MY COUNTRY AND WOULD DEFEND IT TO THE DEATH, but that doesnt make it right!

Why are we soo afraid of the rest of the world? could it be because we fucked over everybody we have had relation’s with? or because we neglected the others who did not have enough to offer? this subject is getting so tiresome. all i can do is sit back and watch the shit hit the fan. we cannot do anything about it. those in control have cast their lot with the devil.

christians my ass. you sure can do allot when god wills it. god wills me to kick your hillbilly ass, come here. anywho, thanks to those of you with at least half a brain, who can see the error of our ways. i fear all we can do now is wait.“those who cannot remember the past are condemmed to repeat it.”
i am going to the gym now to burn off some steam, before i beat a redneck.

aleku salam.[/quote]

A whole lot of stupid in this thread.

Everyone should know high school students are much wiser in the ways of the world than 40 year olds.