[quote]endgamer711 wrote:
Two was all they had at that time. I think to get anywhere we have to get right down to how many weeks it would have taken to produce a third bomb, and what the enemy might have made of that delay. If those two didn’t do it, there was little question of postponing the invasion. You don’t run total warfare on those terms.[/quote]
Consider:
The enemy doesn’t know how many you’ve got. If you’d dropped only one, they could’ve thought that it was your only one. But you drop two. They learn about the Trinity test… that’s three. No one else in the world is close to having the A-Bomb; who’d take the gamble of attacking you presuming you had no other bombs for some weeks or months?
But even so, let’s say that someone has spies real deep within your government, and they know you don’t have any more bombs. The USA is far from a pushover, even considering only conventional warfare. Your manufacturing capacity dwarfed pretty much everyone on the planet. There’s no way they can do anything in a short period of time until you get the next bombs.
At worst, you would’ve had to stall Japan for some more weeks (since a land invasion was too costly in human lives), but there was no real question on who was going to win that war.
Japan was already all but defeated before the bombings. Unless their emperor was really god, they weren’t going to win that war, A-bombs or not.
And that’s my point: Dropping the bombs was not necessary to end the war with Japan. Maybe it was deemed “necessary” to show Russia and China what awaited them if they didn’t reign in their military ambitions; but that’s not what’s claimed by most American history books.
The old Enola Gay exposition at the Smithsonian’s National Air and Space Museum in Washington, D.C. used to have a plaque that read:
[i]"Tibbets piloted the aircraft on its mission to drop an atomic bomb on Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945. That bomb and the one dropped on Nagasaki three days later destroyed much of the two cities and caused tens of thousands of deaths.
However, the use of the bombs led to the immediate surrender of Japan and made unnecessary the planned invasion of the Japanese home islands. Such an invasion, especially if undertaken for both main islands, would have led to very heavy casualties among American and Allied troops and Japanese civilians and military. It was thought highly unlikely that Japan, while in a very weakened military condition, would have surrendered unconditionally without such an invasion."[/i]
All that is bunk. Tens of thousands of deaths is for the immediate deaths, not a total of all the deads from those bombings.
The part about the land invasion is also crap; the US knew at the beginning of July that the Japanese were considering surrender and the terms they would accept. Had the Trinity test failed, I’m sure the Postdam Declaration would’ve been worded more diplomatically and Japan would’ve surrender while saving face. Without nuking anyone.
Maybe Russia and China would’ve been more agressive post war and they would’ve gotten bombed; I don’t know. We’ll never know. Just don’t propagandize about the “necessity” of nuking Japan and ask me to believe it.