PE>20. Normal about 13.
Dividend Yield<2%. Normal is at least 4%
Tobin Q ratio=1.4 (mildly bearish)
"The pre-1995 norm of 13 for price-to-normalized earnings is important, because at present â?? and again, we are not using current depressed earnings, but properly normalized values â?? the S&P 500 P/E would currently be over 20. That’s higher than 1987 and 1972, and about even with 1929. Of course, valuations have been regularly higher in the period since the late 1990’s (and not surprisingly, subsequent returns, even after the recent advance, have been dismal overall, with the S&P 500 posting a negative total return for the past decade).
So overvalued, check. Overbought, check. Overbullish, check. Upward pressure on yields, check. Market internals? â?? certainly mixed, but not bad â?? and there’s the wild card."
Personal opinion: DOW is going to recede fairly substantially in the next 6 months, maybe by 1500-2000k, lots of “sideline money” will come into play at or around the bottom and we’ll be up around 11k or 11,500k by this time next year.
(Full disclosure: I’m an intermediate at best when it comes to this stuff, and since the “best and the brighest” of stock analysts have been unable to predict the market with any consistency whatsover, I don’t have much of a chance.)
What are you guys investing in these days? Personally I like CANROYs alot, and am going to stay in until the Canadian government changes their tax status in a couple years and their insane dividends are cut. Have a small position in a gold mine, one reason being that I met the CEO at a wedding, completely drunk off his ass, and he was spewing out more insider information than Charlie Sheen and BlueStar airlines (LOL). Still have a lot of boring blue chips, Coke, Bristol-Meyers Squibb, Proctor and Gamble. I’ve been impressed with BP recently as a long-term play…solid oil company that is branching out into a lot of green energy sources.
Speaking of which, anybody here thinking of investing in any “green” stocks? Wind, in particular?
[quote]PimpBot5000 wrote:
Personal opinion: DOW is going to recede fairly substantially in the next 6 months, maybe by 1500-2000k, lots of “sideline money” will come into play at or around the bottom and we’ll be up around 11k or 11,500k by this time next year.
(Full disclosure: I’m an intermediate at best when it comes to this stuff, and since the “best and the brighest” of stock analysts have been unable to predict the market with any consistency whatsover, I don’t have much of a chance.)
What are you guys investing in these days? Personally I like CANROYs alot, and am going to stay in until the Canadian government changes their tax status in a couple years and their insane dividends are cut. Have a small position in a gold mine, one reason being that I met the CEO at a wedding, completely drunk off his ass, and he was spewing out more insider information than Charlie Sheen and BlueStar airlines (LOL). Still have a lot of boring blue chips, Coke, Bristol-Meyers Squibb, Proctor and Gamble. I’ve been impressed with BP recently as a long-term play…solid oil company that is branching out into a lot of green energy sources.
Speaking of which, anybody here thinking of investing in any “green” stocks? Wind, in particular?[/quote]
The natural gas stocks look good, have had a good run. So have the golds.
Most sectors look kind of ugly since interest rates have nowhere to go but up, unless people start paying Uncle Sam for the privilege of lending money to the gov’t.
Defense stocks might be a good play even with crazy Dems in office and rising interest rates.
Picking good green stocks is hard. There are so many companies trying to promote their technologies, and even if they are blatantly brilliant, the energy sector and its lobbyists are far to powerful to be ignored.
Green tech is the future, but it is one of, if not the most, crowded horse races going on right now.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
The Post and Fox news huh?
I guess that trumps the Financials I’ve been reading the last 24 months.[/quote]
Its your money, if you want to lose it that’s fine with me.[/quote]
Jesus Christ.
Listen to Fox news, not people that work (have clients) in the business… Great plan. Enjoy being hopelessly naive and too arrogant to truly learn shit.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
The Post and Fox news huh?
I guess that trumps the Financials I’ve been reading the last 24 months.[/quote]
Its your money, if you want to lose it that’s fine with me.[/quote]
Jesus Christ.
Listen to Fox news, not people that work (have clients) in the business… Great plan. Enjoy being hopelessly naive and too arrogant to truly learn shit.
[/quote]
I listen to Peter Schiff.
Only time will tell who is right, I will continue to buy silver, and silver stocks and you play the stock market, lets see who has more purchasing power at the end of the year.
[quote]countingbeans wrote:
The Post and Fox news huh?
I guess that trumps the Financials I’ve been reading the last 24 months.[/quote]
Its your money, if you want to lose it that’s fine with me.[/quote]
Jesus Christ.
Listen to Fox news, not people that work (have clients) in the business… Great plan. Enjoy being hopelessly naive and too arrogant to truly learn shit.
[/quote]
I listen to Peter Schiff.
Only time will tell who is right, I will continue to buy silver, and silver stocks and you play the stock market, lets see who has more purchasing power at the end of the year.[/quote]
You are right about time telling.
You go ahead and focus on this year. I’ll be busy worrying about the next 50. Long term focus man, long term focus.
I have seen info on commercial RE and it does look pretty bad, with a lot of properties in or near foreclosure. Regional banks (140 in 2009) may take some big hits.
Anyone following a bottom up value orientated approach? I’m heavily influenced by Warren Buffett and I made significant gains last year. I rather put my money into good companies I can get at good prices rather than into gold and silver. Everything was a bargain at the beginning of last year and now I’m finding it a bit harder to find some quality companies to buy.
I think it’s pointless to try to predict where the market is going. I really like this Warren Buffett quote “The market is there to serve you, not instruct you.” I welcome volatility, since it allows me to buy companies at a cheaper price.
[quote]archiewhittaker wrote:
Oil prices and metals up again in 2010?[/quote]
Nice article over at Bloomberg about how numerous experts pick commodities (Oil, gold) to fare better than financials. One reason is that stocks are too expensive.
“Equity investors may have already anticipated this yearâ??s economic expansion, with the S&P 500 at 1,115.10, or 24.3 times earnings, the most since 2002, according to Bloomberg data.”