Believe me guys…I’m not one to wear the Tin Foil…
But am I the only one who thinks all the “Worst-relationship-with-Russia-since-the-Cold-War/Getting “tough” with Putin” stuff is just too “tidy” and convenient?
The other thing that bothers me is with Assad initially getting a “pass” from the Administration…what in the Hell could possibly have been his motivation to use gas? (@loppar?)
I don’t know…it’s all just not adding up to me…tin foil or no tin foil…
His motivation makes perfect sense if you set aside the moral abhorrence of the act.
But first, let’s examine why gas was used in the first place - to break the stalemate of trench warfare in WW1. Barbed wire, machine guns, accurate heavy caliber artillery made frontal attacks extremely costly in terms of casualties and pretty much doomed to fail - the developed rail network of NW Europe enabled defenders to bring reinforcements faster to threatened sectors that attackers could.
Now why was gas not used in WW2? (actually it was used by the Germans in Crimea in 1942 but that was an isolated occurence). Many fanciful explanations were provided, some claiming that Hitler, being temporarily blinded in a gas attack in WW1, showed reluctance to use it, but that’s bullshit.
The reasons are very unsentimental - first of all, the Allies very ready for such an eventuality - every GI carried a gas mask and huge quantities of gas were prepared for possible retaliation, but the main reason was horses - despite all those propaganda newsreels and advanced weaponry, the Wehrmacht was entirely depended on horse drawn carts. Over one million horses was employed by the German Army and any retaliatory gas attack by the Allies would have killed off the horses, thereby immobilizing most of the forces except those few fully motorized divisions.
But back to Assad - as I’ve said, gas is used to break stalemates and reduce casualties - something Assad desperately needs, because he can only lose in prolonged attritional warfare.
Assad’s Alawites made around 11% of Syria’s pre-war population, Christians were at 10% - add to that a smattering of secular Sunnites and you see that Assad forces are at a huge numerical disadvantage, which prevents him for providing sufficient cannon fodder for costly urban fighting.
I’ve already shown that the male Alawite population suffered catastrophic losses in the last several years and the deficit has to be covered by Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. There are over 30 000 Iranian Guardsmen in Hezbollah militiamen fighting for Assad in Syria.
Iranians are pretty pissed about this - if you’re fighting a proxy war the unwritten rule is that as a dominant power you provide advanced technology, money and supplies, while the local ally provides cannon fodder, something Assad is singularly incapable.
So instead of Assad’s soldiers, valuable Iranian Guardsmen (and their senior officers) and Hezbollah soldiers have to do the dying, something they don’t exactly tolerate - despite official line about “martyrs” Guardsmen are pretty upset - when the coffins fly into Teheran’s airport, the faces of the Guardsmen don’t show the expression “Allah be praised, new martyrs” but “fuck, more casualties”. These people joined the Guard for money, prestige and social status status, not to get blown by an IED in Syria.
That’s why Iran is press ganging Afghan Shiite refugees as “volunteers” for Syria, by the way.
So while the Iranians are wasting their valuable manpower against numerically superior Sunnites (whether ISIS or “rebels”) Assad is desperately trying to prove that he can still be useful - hence the gas attacks with the intent, like in WW1, of opening breaches in Rebel lines and reducing losses in offensives in urban areas.
Of course it’s a war crime, but in the life-or-death struggle in Syria, Assad simply doesn’t care.
Thanks for the great insights, @loppar. (As usual!)
It just seemed like Assad was “shooting himself in the proverbial foot” to use gas…especially since the Administration had given him a pass. (Essentially saying that “Assad was up to the Syrian people…our focus is on ISIS”.)
With that said; the sudden “poor” relationship with Russia…and “toughness” against Putin…in light of ongoing investigations…is just not passing the smell test for me…
I’m imagining the fight scene at the end from the movie “Let’s go to Prison.”
Disclaimer: If you haven’t seen that movie, fix your life ffs.
Assad took another gamble - the Russians still have his back, provided they don’t do a deal with Trump. With the Gulf states providing more weapons for “rebels” recently and having announced the imminent delivery of MANPADS, it seems the only comparative advantage for Assad - air force - will disappear in the near future… so he gambled.
So far, he’s survived - everyone considered Assad three years ago practically a goner.
One source suggested the official investigation was making progress. “They now have specific concrete and corroborative evidence of collusion,” the source said. “This is between people in the Trump campaign and agents of [Russian] influence relating to the use of hacked material.”
The European countries that passed on electronic intelligence – known as sigint – included Germany, Estonia and Poland.
I guess this explains those earlier anti-NATO remarks by Trump and that weird statement by Newt Gingrich is which he claimed that Estonia is a “suburb of St. Petersburg” and should be therefore handed over to the Russians.
A lot of chatter today about something big coming down late today or tomorrow.
Wow, this is a pretty damning piece about the paralysis of the Obama administration after the Russian hack…
The Pentagon from the first was advocating for a “very strong response,” rather than just words, the former Defense Department official told BuzzFeed News. But the White House “signaled they weren’t ready to respond just yet, so we fleshed out options, we drafted papers, second, third, fourth versions of those papers. And we kept going around in circles to the point that it was extremely frustrating.”
Edit: And this paragraph brilliantly encapsulates why the Russians are in Syria. They don’t give a fuck about Assad, they’re using it to score easy points against the US…
“John Kerry to almost the very end really thought that — he just kept throwing the ball down the field over and over and over again and kept getting a pick six,” Andrew Exum, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, said about Kerry’s insistence on not upsetting Russia’s willingness to coordinate on Syria. “The president, to his discredit, kept letting him throw the ball.”
In fantasy land, I love British Intelligence because of George Smiley and James Bond.
In real life, let’s not forget the Cambridge Five is probably the greatest known success of Russian infiltration.
Damning indeed.
This happened today too:
I really fucking hate being right. Ghastly, but a good piece even though it is buzzfeed (which I dislike).
Kerry was a godawful pick for that position.
Between this, the MOAB drop, the possible strike on North Korea (!!!), and the reported collusion evidence I just don’t know what the hell is happening. Bizarro world indeed
Wikileaks is more reliable than the CIA
Considering you get your news from Russia Today, it does not surprise me you think this.
The Donald doesn’t agree with you here (sometimes). Our Intel community is the biglyest and bestlyest on the planet.
The way the military industrial complex manipulates Intel it should come as no surprise wikileaks is more reliable
As most/all of the intel wikileaks publishes comes from the intel community, wouldn’t it stand that the intel coming from wikileaks is equally reliable at best?
What’s stopping the intel community from manipulating the intel before it leaves the building?
It’s leaks encompass multiple governments and is uncensored.
What the CIA releases is whatever it wants the public to know