[quote]Mick28 wrote:
You’re right Ross Perot had a far better chance of being elected President than Paul ever will. Some say if Perot had not dropped out, then reentered he would have beaten both Bush and Clinton.
That’s speculation of course. But he did finish with about 19% of the popular vote/[/quote]
Perot had zero chance of being elected regardless of his popular support because he was a 3rd-party candidate. Third-party candidates do not win in this country, period. Nobody seriously disputes this.
Perot might have won only if he had run as a Republican. The fact that Ron Paul is doing this gives him a better chance from the get-go. No comparison. Yer out.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
He’s not a fool at all. Oh he has some wacky answers to things, but he’s not a fool. The people who think he’s going to win are the foolish ones.[/quote]
He doesn’t have any wacky answers, only the right ones, and he wouldn’t be running if he didn’t think he could win. He stated from the very beginning that this is not going to be a “symbolic” run for him. He is in to win. Guess that makes him a fool in your eyes. I have no problem with that, since I know that you’re a fool and can prove it (which you can’t do about Ron Paul).
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
Please let me know one other “revolutionary” candidate that has been elected President in modern times.[/quote]
I’m pretty sure a revolution is unprecedented, by definition. Look it up sometime.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
LOL…everyone is able to oppose him. And might I add they do a darn good job keeping him at the 2% level in most polls.[/quote]
Yeah, that or in the lead among all the candidates. My poll is as good as yours.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
All kidding aside, it’s not an impossible task. It’s just highly improbable. I don’t know what the best odds makers would give him. But, in all likelihood it’s not a very good chance. Some would string together colorful pros like “piss poor.”[/quote]
Guess you missed this:
[quote]Nominal Prospect wrote:
Ron Paul Odds Slashed Dramatically: 15 to 1 from 200 to 1
It was only two weeks ago that 2008 Presidential candidate Ron Paul was listed at Sportsbook.com with odds of 200 to 1. In fact, early in the month he was not even offered on the political betting menu. My how things have changed in the past month.
…
http://www.gambling911.com/Ron-Paul-Odds-053107.html[/quote]
I told you I wouldn’t have a problem quoting myself as many times as it takes to get certain things to penetrate your thick skull. His odds are the best odds a libertarian candidate has ever had. His followers understand this and that is why they are pushing so hard. It is really not that difficult to grasp. Keep linking polls if it makes you feel better.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
I want you to be specific here. When you say “OWN” do you mean win? Or “own” as in place in the top three?
[/quote]
Sure. I think he’s got a good chance of winning NH.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
In terms of fund-raising, they have raised 10 times more money (literally) in the 3 months since the debates transpired.
3 times more than they had? Or 3 times more than the others had?
Again, let’s be specific.
How much money did Paul actually raise?[/quote]
It wasn’t 3 times more, it was 10 times more. 3 was the number of months that it took him to do it. Surely, that couldn’t have been too difficult to comprehend from my statement. He went from 500 grand in March to nearly 5 million now. That puts him in a position where he can start to compete with the big-name candidates.
http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=43192
Read it and weep because there will be plenty more where those came from. At this stage it doesn’t look like he’s going to run out of money. Therefore, he will have circumvented one of the most significant hurdles facing all 3rd-party or relatively unknown candidates. Booya.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
Well, the debates brought his numbers up to the astounding 2% level.[/quote]
You mean after he won every call-in and internet poll on all the major networks, right?
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
You might want to look in the mirror the next time you use the word “idiot”.[/quote]
I just looked, and it’s still you who’s the idiot.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
I hope you realize that I’m not ever going to let you live this down. Long after the election is over I’ll be reminding you what a nut case you sounded like right here on this forum.[/quote]
That’s nice. I couldn’t care less.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
Let’s see, you think my predictions are wrong right? But, I am willing to bet on them and you’re not willing to bet against them.[/quote]
You are posturing on an internet forum. That is pathetic. “Betting” here wouldn’t mean jack squat, so just drop that nonsense already. I’m doing something far bigger and better than that: I’m constructing solid arguments based on irrefutable facts while you sit there spouting off with childish and asinine remarks. Don’t worry, I won’t let you live it down either.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
You say he’ll go far. But of course that’s yet another term that you’re going to have to define.
If he finishes 3rd or 4th, is that a win to you? He’s still a loser at that point.[/quote]
I don’t define the term because I’m not a professional oracle. I make NO claims of being able to predict the future. What I do is study the present as a scientist in order to determine certain probabilities about the future. You are welcome to evaluate the scientific premises for my predictions about the future and disagree with them, if need be.
He’ll be in the top 3 for sure, because he’s only competing against Thompson and Romney. So, while that wouldn’t be enough to make him president, it would be enough to humiliate the flamers and the haters (such as yourself) who made it out as if he was going to be a complete no-name, non-factor candidate. But that’s hypothetical. He’s not running for 3rd place. He’s running to win and he’s got a 1 in 3 or better chance of doing it.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
Think he’ll be chosen to run as VP? I’d even bet you on that one.[/quote]
I can positively guarantee you that that won’t happen.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
The fact is most of the candidates won’t have anything to do with him.
Do you know why?[/quote]
Yes, I know why. You don’t, however, so I’ll kindly inform you. Ron Paul, unlike the other candidates, is not a member of CFR. He is not part of the establishment. He is, in fact, the greatest threat to the establishment in at least half a century. That’s why he’s not going to be VP for any of the establishment candidates.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
Although some of his ideas are good (some lousy) he comes off as a fringe nut ball.[/quote]
He comes off as a reasoned, clear-thinking and honest, doctor-turned-politician. Which is precisely what he is. Bill Maher said of him, “You don’t expect to hear such logic from someone who is actually going to run the country.”
If such statements are being made about him by the left, it’s safe to assume that his widespread perception is not of being a “fringe nutball”. He has his character flaws, as do nearly all the candidates, but he is not on the fringe as far as average Americans are concerned. Neocons are on the fringe. You are wrong once again.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
It makes you look like the kid you are. Again, not trying to offend you…oh that’s right I can’t offend you, never mind.[/quote]
Really? You’ve been trying so hard all this time. Could have fooled me.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
You give me nothing but vauge predictions and outlandish conclusions based on nonsense.[/quote]
If you think that, then you obviously know nothing about academic debate and you probably aren’t very intelligent. When I make a specific point, you are tasked with refuting that point if you disagree with it. I have done as much in my replies to your posts. You haven’t followed suit, because your argumentation style resembles that of a child’s.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
You spend more time on this entire Ron Paul thing than you should. No one will even remember his name one year from today.[/quote]
The more you spout, the more you show how little you know. Like most conservatives, I have already know about Ron Paul for years. How could any political observer NOT know about “the one exception to the gang of 535 on Capitol Hill?” Ron Paul is not new to politics, he is not some no-name candidate crawling out of some backwater territory for an ill-fated run.
Ron Paul is a TEXAS REPUBLICAN well-known on the right for his principled, constitutionalist views. Quick quiz: Who’s in office now? I’ll tell you: A stuttering retard from Texas with a clever smirk. You can go on and on about Ron Paul’s “funny looks”, but let me tell you, our current president has a few of his own. Didn’t stop him from getting elected…twice. Chew on that.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
This is fun man, I’m never going to ignore you. I’d like to keep this going until the election. At which time you will be proven to be the worst predictor of election outcomes known to modern man.[/quote]
I fully recognize that you would like to keep this going as long as possible. You are what’s known on the internet as a “troll”. That puts your general worth somewhere between pocket lint and dirty underwear.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
Paul does not have the intelligence. If he did he would realize that he has no chance to become President for several reasons.[/quote]
Compared to you, he is a genius of epic proportions. I do not speak in hyperbole. I know that Ron Paul understands certain fundamental economic principles, which you obviously do not. That, alone, makes him the most intelligent person running (naturally, I could elaborate on these principles, but there’s no point because I’m speaking to a dunce).
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
You actually think he can win and that’s just inexperience talking. If you had said that you’d “like him to win” or “he has good enough ideas to become President” I might let you up.[/quote]
- I’d like him to become President.
- He has a fair shot of winning.
The two statements are neither redundant nor mutually exclusive. You DO know what “redundant” means, right? If I DIDN’T want him to become President, he’d still have a fair shot of winning, and if he DIDN’T have a fair shot of winning, I’d still want him to become President.
Yet, I don’t think he has a fair shot of becoming President BECAUSE I’d like him to be. That would be committing a logical fallacy, which would mean that I was operating in your domain. Thankfully, I’ll never stoop that low.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
And keep in mind it doesn’t end with the election…I think we can get far more mileage out of this, don’t you?[/quote]
Yeah, except that you’re going to disappear back to wherever you came from after this thread runs it’s course, whereas I will continue to post on this forum and share my views as I always have. Remember: You’re the troll, not me.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
You have to stop comparing how Paul is doing to how Paul has done. That’s the frist mistake of a novice.
In the real world he has to beat the other guys, not what he did in prior months. While that might be a short term barometer it’s not what counts for very long.[/quote]
There is validity in both comparisons and I don’t hide from either of them. The numbers you asked for are linked above.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
There is a difference between how someone thought a candidate did in a debate and if that same person would vote for that candidate.[/quote]
Getting technical now, are we? You’re absolutely right about that. And I was absolutely right when I told you that the people voting in the poll in which Ron Paul got 2% were not actually choosing any other candidate over him – they were merely defaulting to the only candidates they knew. Thus, we are both correct and the score is reset to zero. My polls are STILL just as good as yours.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
If you had the background you would realize that debates rarely change someones opinion of who they might vote for. And this is true in Pauls case. His hard poll numbers moved only marginally. And that’s because before the debate most people didn’t know a man by the name of Ron Paul existed. Now they know and about 98% of them are not impressed.[/quote]
If you had the grey matter, you would realize that people can’t possibly vote for someone they don’t know. Therefore, the debates are absolutely CRITICAL to a candidate like Ron Paul. He was in the lead among all the candidates on the major network polls and has increased his funds 10 times over. If that’s not a clear-cut win in that aspect of the process, I don’t know what is.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
- Money, more than the others is best, but at least close to the others will do.[/quote]
Which, by all indications he’s getting.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
2. Lots of charisma[/quote]
Charisma is subjective.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
3. A detailed plan which impresses those who are currently interested.[/quote]
He has a detailed plan. He will secure the border better than any other candidate and get out of the Middle East ASAP. That is a clear-cut plan.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
What makes you think that the average American voter actually does a complete assessment prior to picking a candidate to vote for? Not that that would help Paul any.[/quote]
What makes me think the average American does a complete assessment prior to picking a candidate to vote for, is the fact that in the actual ELECTION, there are only TWO candidates to choose from, rather than 8 on each side, and their differences are clearly highlighted thanks to copious media exposure.
The average American may be dumb and lazy, but they DO know the difference between Al Gore and George W. Bush. The point being, in case you can’t figure it out, that these early polls that you are jumping up and down about don’t mean SHIT because there are too many damn names in the ring at this stage in the game.
Wait until the no-names start dropping out, then people will actually know who Ron Paul is and start evaluating him against the other candidates. Nobody can be bothered to do that now.
[quote]Mick28 wrote:
I don’t know who will be nominated, but don’t count Rudy out. he’s organized has money behind him and like the scum that he is, is milking 9-11 for all he can. And the people so far are gobbling it up.[/quote]
Listen, the Republican base isn’t going to nominate a pro-choice candidate when there are 7 others who are pro-life and have mostly the same stances on every other issue. It isn’t going to happen, period. He is already slipping in the polls. Your inexperience is showing.