Great stuff, Bolt.
Now these two points make me wonder if this election is TRULY a “toss-up” (at least at this point):
The President and the Tea Party are two sides of the same coin AND
Independents are still looking for pragmatic leadership.
As it relates to the last point:
Both the President and Santorum are certainly not showing a pragmatic side.
Who KNOWS how Romney will lead.
Where does that leave the election in your view?
Toss up? Obama win? GOP win?
Mufasa
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
I think that the groups that came our strong for the President in 2008 are not nearly as “fired up”; in some cases are disappointed; and for those who “switched” from their “traditional” voting blocks to vote for the President, will “switch back”.
And Conservatives/TeaRepubs are ready to fight in numbers.[/quote]
Totally agreed. Obama’s troops are smaller and less enthusiastic. The idealists are disappointed in him, the pragmatists are too.
And the GOP base will be out in force. For all their griping, GOP baselings aren’t going to stay at home if there is a less-than-pure candidate. For example, does anyone believe the Tea Party (or tea party) are going to sit this election out? Take a look at the candidates - it’s either going to be Romney or Santorum, and neither candidate is the “one the Tea Party has been waiting for”. But, despite this, they are going to vote, bet on it.
I think there’s a chance, and it all boils down to swing states and swing voters. Swing voters (i.e., independents) have fled Obama (and the Democratic party) in droves - the question is, will the GOP accept gift-wrapped independents, or will the party insist on the same kind of litmus test politics that the Democrats have been guilty of for so many years?
I know primaries are inherently partisan, but sometimes I wonder.
I don’t think a GOP victory is a shoo-in by any means, but I think one very important factor will be…the debates. If you’ve watched any of Obama’s (very scarce) press conferences, they are awful. He does an awful job of explaining his policy, his record. He gets defensive, petulent. He’s evasive, and does not appreciate being second guessed.
Well, this time around, Obama doesn’t get to run on scripted inspirational platitudes - he is going to have to answer tough questions about promises he made that he didn’t keep (i.e., cutting the deficit, closing Gitmo, executive signing statements, and on and on), policy choices (health care over financial meltdown), war powers (Libya), etc.
In short, all the things that made Obama attractive in 2008 - fresh face, inspirational message, optimism, promises of post-partisanship, etc. - are not available to him this time around. Incumbency is, and that is important, but now he runs on his record, and not just his record, but his defense of his record. Count that as a minus in his bid for re-election, I think.
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
As it relates to the last point:
Toss up? Obama win? GOP win?[/quote]
At this point, hard to say, and I am not simply trying to avoid an answer - in addition to the debates, I think the selection of a VP will have a large impact on the race. If Palin provied anything, it’s that VP politics are back in play and can make a difference (for good or bad).
If I had to pick a winner right now, based on gut snapshot? I’d say the GOP in a squeaker. The business community is not happy with Obama. Catholics aren’t, and religious people generally appear not to be. Independents don’t favor him. The Jewish community doesn’t appear to be in his camp.
I look at conservative/moderate Democrats as weather vanes on this issue. What’s happening since the purge of conservative/moderate Democrats since the shellacking in 2010? More leaving. Heath Schuler - not running again. Mike Ross - out. Dan Boren - out. All these guys are smart with promising political careers in front of them, not behind them. But they are getting out. That’s a compelling trend, and rest assured, not a one of them wanted to campaign in 2012 “down-ticket” from Obama. This means something.
Same here, Bolt.
I’m thinking CLOSE race…with a GOP win…
BUT…I keep having this gnawing feeling that like the mid-terms, the GOP could win by a larger margin than expected.
If you recall (heck…I know you recall!)…the GOP was expected to win in the Midterms…but it was a virtual bloodbath, as Americans spoke with their vote.
You spoke about VP. I think the choice that the GOP makes as their nominee will be one of those that will be talked and written about for years. I say this because of the “battle for the Soul of the Party” that Romney and Santorum seem to represent.
Mufasa
[quote]Sloth wrote:
Excellent, excellent, response to the new Romney super-pac ads. This is how to do it. Play into the already growing feeling among conservatives (Romney can only destroy Republicans, not sell himself). Use humor.
http://bcove.me/mvjfzvza[/quote]
Probably not a good idea to be splatting Romney with what appears to be…“Santorum”…
(Gross…so GOOGLE it if you want to know what that is…)
Mufasa
As a Democrat, I’m absolutely loving the slow motion trainwreck of the GOP primaries. ABR is still in front! (Anyone But Romney). The fact that Romney is now behind Santorum in some national polls shows what an incredibly weak candidate Romney is… Santorum has no national campaign headquarters, he couldn’t get on the ballot in several states, he has a tiny fraction of Romney’s money, and he lost his last Senate election in a landslide. He’s a horrible candidate, but the primary seems to be about nominating the candidate who isn’t the biggest turd. The beauty of the recent Santorum surge is that it destroys the only thing that Romney had as leverage with the pundits… that he was somehow more electable than the other clowns. Yet Romney can’t even beat the motley group of third stringers in the primary. If Obama is doing such a bad job, and so he’s so unpopular, and he’s destined to be a one term president, how come the Republicans couldn’t field one single “A-List” candidate? Romney couldn’t even beat McCain last time (and he’s getting an even worse turnout this time). Why are all the GOP primary candidates a bunch of fringe goofs and bench-warmers? Nobody on the Right wants to be president, or nobody actually thinks they can beat Obama? How come no good candidates have the balls to step into the ring with Obama, if he’s so beatable?
Anyway, thanks for the ongoing LOLS in the PWI forum, you guys are awesome. I’m happy to say that the primary’s not anywhere close to being over yet. This is really, really fun to watch. There’s nobody on the Right who can win the primary AND the general election, thanks to conservative hard liners, single issue voters, the Tea Party faction, the growing Libertarian fringe, Christian conservatives who hate Mormons, and the incredibly weak primary field. You can’t appeal to those groups in the primary AND win the Independent vote in the general election. And since that’s where national elections are currently decided, that’s a great place to be.
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Same here, Bolt.
I’m thinking CLOSE race…with a GOP win…
BUT…I keep having this gnawing feeling that like the mid-terms, the GOP could win by a larger margin than expected.
If you recall (heck…I know you recall!)…the GOP was expected to win in the Midterms…but it was a virtual bloodbath, as Americans spoke with their vote.
You spoke about VP. I think the choice that the GOP makes as their nominee will be one of those that will be talked and written about for years. I say this because of the “battle for the Soul of the Party” that Romney and Santorum seem to represent.
Mufasa[/quote]
You’re a smart person Mufasa so don’t take this the wrong way. But… you also thought that McCain was going to beat Obama and I told you then that the media (and several other things) would put Obama over the top.
Once again, if the nominee is Santorum he is far too socially conservative for the media. They will bring him down and he’ll be a laughing stock with over half the country by election day. The independents will ABSOLUTELY NOT vote for either Santorum or Gingrich. And Newt has far too much baggage to beat Obama. He’d be defending himself for the entire portion of the general election. And that wouldn’t keep the conversation on the economy would it?
Only one man even has a chance to beat Obama and that man is Mitt Romney (this is Groundhog day and I am doomed to repeat this stuff until the nominating process is over). Romney can win the independents, do well with women and senior citizens. And electorally he can deliver some north east states like Mass, New Hampshire and probably New Jersey with Christie’s help. If Marco Rubio accepts the VP position that gives hard core conservatives a reason to get pumped up about the ticket (as if dumping Obama is not exciting enough for some of these purists) and it also delivers Florida a must win GOP state. That is how Obama loses and that is the ONLY scenario where he loses.
Why more people on this site cannot see this has more to do with what they think of Romney. People always project what THEY want as what will happen (no Romney is not my first choice). Case in point are the Paulies, they worked themselves up into a lather. They couldn’t see that America was not going to go for a shrill sounding old man who rambles on? Nope, because THEY Liked him. Some of them are now coming down from their Ron Paul high as the numbers doom their man to being a loser once again. And if you are a staunch right wing social conservative sure you like Santorum (I know I do). But what does that mean in a general election when Obama will look like the reasonable middle of the road candidate. Stop projecting your own personal political positions on to others. This country is NOT made up of people who think like you (or me).
As I said many posts ago I doubt anyone will beat Obama as the press will not allow it. But Romney/Rubio has the very best chance. Anything short of that and Obama will be assured four more years.
Zeb:
There are certain posters on this site who can never offend me (you; Bolt;Push; DBCoop; Borreck…and a hand full of others…even Lift!)
Heck…I learn more from you guys in a thread about Politics; the history of Politics; views on the Constitution…you name it…than I learned in 8 years of College and Graduate School.
I don’t always agree…but I always learn!
So, keep it real, Brother!
(P.S. Yep…you and Tiribulus LOVE to remind me of my brilliant “McCain/Palin” call…I really, REALLY DID think that Palin was a true “Game Changer”…)
Mufasa
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Zeb:
There are certain posters on this site who can never offend me (you; Bolt;Push; DBCoop; Borreck…and a hand full of others…even Lift!)
Heck…I learn more from you guys in a thread about Politics; the history of Politics; views on the Constitution…you name it…than I learned in 8 years of College and Graduate School.
I don’t always agree…but I always learn!
So, keep it real, Brother!
(P.S. Yep…you and Tiribulus LOVE to remind me of my brilliant “McCain/Palin” call…I really, REALLY DID think that Palin was a true “Game Changer”…)
Mufasa[/quote]
You were on to something there don’t be overly harsh on yourself. Palin was a unique American political figure. How many others VP picks who were on the losing end of the game were politically significant and making millions of dollars from speaking their views four years after losing?
Not one of them prior to her!
So she was, is and will remain unique.
The Huffington Post decided to vet Santorum, and reports this:
Rick Santorum Cast Himself As ‘Progressive Conservative,’ Non-Reaganite In First Campaign
Interesting reading, and not all that controversial, but what is noted is that Santorum was not always so committed to a pro-life position.
[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Same here, Bolt.
I’m thinking CLOSE race…with a GOP win…
BUT…I keep having this gnawing feeling that like the mid-terms, the GOP could win by a larger margin than expected.
If you recall (heck…I know you recall!)…the GOP was expected to win in the Midterms…but it was a virtual bloodbath, as Americans spoke with their vote.
You spoke about VP. I think the choice that the GOP makes as their nominee will be one of those that will be talked and written about for years. I say this because of the “battle for the Soul of the Party” that Romney and Santorum seem to represent.
Mufasa[/quote]
You’re a smart person Mufasa so don’t take this the wrong way. But… you also thought that McCain was going to beat Obama and I told you then that the media (and several other things) would put Obama over the top.
Once again, if the nominee is Santorum he is far too socially conservative for the media. They will bring him down and he’ll be a laughing stock with over half the country by election day. The independents will ABSOLUTELY NOT vote for either Santorum or Gingrich. And Newt has far too much baggage to beat Obama. He’d be defending himself for the entire portion of the general election. And that wouldn’t keep the conversation on the economy would it?
Only one man even has a chance to beat Obama and that man is Mitt Romney (this is Groundhog day and I am doomed to repeat this stuff until the nominating process is over). Romney can win the independents, do well with women and senior citizens. And electorally he can deliver some north east states like Mass, New Hampshire and probably New Jersey with Christie’s help. If Marco Rubio accepts the VP position that gives hard core conservatives a reason to get pumped up about the ticket (as if dumping Obama is not exciting enough for some of these purists) and it also delivers Florida a must win GOP state. That is how Obama loses and that is the ONLY scenario where he loses.
Why more people on this site cannot see this has more to do with what they think of Romney. People always project what THEY want as what will happen (no Romney is not my first choice). Case in point are the Paulies, they worked themselves up into a lather. They couldn’t see that America was not going to go for a shrill sounding old man who rambles on? Nope, because THEY Liked him. Some of them are now coming down from their Ron Paul high as the numbers doom their man to being a loser once again. And if you are a staunch right wing social conservative sure you like Santorum (I know I do). But what does that mean in a general election when Obama will look like the reasonable middle of the road candidate. Stop projecting your own personal political positions on to others. This country is NOT made up of people who think like you (or me).
As I said many posts ago I doubt anyone will beat Obama as the press will not allow it. But Romney/Rubio has the very best chance. Anything short of that and Obama will be assured four more years.
[/quote]
I have to agree, I think Santorum would be a Religious Ideologue that would divide America to the point of civil war
[quote]pushharder wrote:
[quote]pittbulll wrote:
I have to agree, I think Santorum would be a Religious Ideologue that would divide America to the point of civil war
[/quote]
And precisely because YOU agree a prudent man will see a red flag in that line of thinking.[/quote]
You are so exacting , you must be an expert on all things
Frothy Mixture is still leading Slick Mitt in the polls. Mitt’s actually in 3rd place behind Newt in Texas (they must be really excited about the permanent moon base there).
1:30 Unbelievable. Romney praises Hezbollah’s “healthcare diplomacy” and says the United States needs to emulate it around the world.
“Santorum Calls For Ending Public Education”
Is he deliberately TRYING to lose?
[quote]pittbulll wrote:
[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Same here, Bolt.
I’m thinking CLOSE race…with a GOP win…
BUT…I keep having this gnawing feeling that like the mid-terms, the GOP could win by a larger margin than expected.
If you recall (heck…I know you recall!)…the GOP was expected to win in the Midterms…but it was a virtual bloodbath, as Americans spoke with their vote.
You spoke about VP. I think the choice that the GOP makes as their nominee will be one of those that will be talked and written about for years. I say this because of the “battle for the Soul of the Party” that Romney and Santorum seem to represent.
Mufasa[/quote]
You’re a smart person Mufasa so don’t take this the wrong way. But… you also thought that McCain was going to beat Obama and I told you then that the media (and several other things) would put Obama over the top.
Once again, if the nominee is Santorum he is far too socially conservative for the media. They will bring him down and he’ll be a laughing stock with over half the country by election day. The independents will ABSOLUTELY NOT vote for either Santorum or Gingrich. And Newt has far too much baggage to beat Obama. He’d be defending himself for the entire portion of the general election. And that wouldn’t keep the conversation on the economy would it?
Only one man even has a chance to beat Obama and that man is Mitt Romney (this is Groundhog day and I am doomed to repeat this stuff until the nominating process is over). Romney can win the independents, do well with women and senior citizens. And electorally he can deliver some north east states like Mass, New Hampshire and probably New Jersey with Christie’s help. If Marco Rubio accepts the VP position that gives hard core conservatives a reason to get pumped up about the ticket (as if dumping Obama is not exciting enough for some of these purists) and it also delivers Florida a must win GOP state. That is how Obama loses and that is the ONLY scenario where he loses.
Why more people on this site cannot see this has more to do with what they think of Romney. People always project what THEY want as what will happen (no Romney is not my first choice). Case in point are the Paulies, they worked themselves up into a lather. They couldn’t see that America was not going to go for a shrill sounding old man who rambles on? Nope, because THEY Liked him. Some of them are now coming down from their Ron Paul high as the numbers doom their man to being a loser once again. And if you are a staunch right wing social conservative sure you like Santorum (I know I do). But what does that mean in a general election when Obama will look like the reasonable middle of the road candidate. Stop projecting your own personal political positions on to others. This country is NOT made up of people who think like you (or me).
As I said many posts ago I doubt anyone will beat Obama as the press will not allow it. But Romney/Rubio has the very best chance. Anything short of that and Obama will be assured four more years.
[/quote]
I have to agree, I think Santorum would be a Religious Ideologue that would divide America to the point of civil war
[/quote]
I think its funny how non-believers use the word “religious”, as if their own beliefs are not a religion with their own useless god.
There is a reason Satan was LEFT handed.
[quote]fibroblaster wrote:
There is a reason Satan was LEFT handed.[/quote]
Against my better judgement, I’ll bite…
I take it that this is some type of jab at our left-handed, Anti-Christ President?
Mufasa
