Presidential Debate Schedule

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
41

[quote]flyboy51v wrote:
The polling companies oversample democrats … you have to read the fine print to see if it’s registered voters or likely voters or just the population at large, etc.
[/quote]

I don’t think the polls oversample democrats, but I agree you need to differentiate polls of registered vs. likely voters.

This election it looks like we may see more “unlikely voters” turning out, which will probably favor democrats over republicans. Hard to say yet if it will be enough to make the difference.

42

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
HH:

  1. That doesn’t belong in the debate anymore than the “Keating 5” stuff. (The pressuring of regulators to lay-off the savings and Loans hurt a LOT more Americans than any money Obama may have gotten from Daly).

  2. Also; please tell me that you are NOT saying that all black people who vote for Obama are racist?

Mufasa[/quote]

For (1): It does seem odd that McCain, who participated in some shady things, chose Sarah. He is a criminal, as is Obama, but yeah, no sense in pointing that out.

(2) I know many if not most black people harbor resentment against white people. This is somewhat understandable, though no one today owned slaves or unleashed police dogs on peaceful marchers. So, I think most people, black people, who vote for Obama vote because of race out of this dislike of white society and ignorance.

This may be some sort of resentment that white society only rewards you if you are educated and well-mannered. Let’s face it: wearing pants below the waistline doesn’t disqualify you from voting but it does from corporate boardrooms…fact of life…two different mindsets…

Insofar as black people resist adopting middle class values (education esp), expect poverty and the resulting voting pattern based upon ignorance.

43

[quote]forlife wrote:
flyboy51v wrote:
The polling companies oversample democrats … you have to read the fine print to see if it’s registered voters or likely voters or just the population at large, etc.

I don’t think the polls oversample democrats, but I agree you need to differentiate polls of registered vs. likely voters.

This election it looks like we may see more “unlikely voters” turning out, which will probably favor democrats over republicans. Hard to say yet if it will be enough to make the difference.
[/quote]

There was just a major poll last week that sampled republicans at something like 28%. No surprise it showed a big lead for Obama.

All these pollsters have formulas they use that are their best guesses of the likely composition of the next electorate. They then map this guess against their respondents. It is very easy for them to “get” the result they want simply by tweaking their input assumptions. Undersample Republicans and show a huge Obama lead.

You can make up your own mind on whether they do this on purpose or not but in my lifetime the democrats ALWAYS have a lead going into the election whether they win or not.

Again … they had Mondale neck and neck until the end … they had Jimmy Carter close … they had Dukakis out ahead by 20 points!

The Left’s answer to this is that the polls are right and republicans are stealing elections (diebold conspiracy, etc). I think it’s because pollsters keep assuming the democrats make up a bigger portion of the electorate on election day than they ever actually do.

44

Any responsible polling organization asks about the person’s political affiliation, and uses this information to ensure adequate representation. To your point, I’m sure there are some irresponsible polls out there but that is why it is best to look at a “poll of polls” before drawing any conclusions.

The current polls show McCain closing the gap significantly, which wouldn’t be the case if democrats were the only ones being polled.

45

Anybody else see this?

Obama references his Muslim Faith…then corrects himself.

Enlightening deeper convictions or just a gaffe? Eiher way, not good for him.

47

Isn’t it usually the case that senior citizens vote republican, while younger/educated voters vote democrat? I’m not sure how long that has been the case, but that’s what I hear in the media at least.

49

Has anyone analyzed why these groups vote the way they do?

I’m curious why younger and more educated voters go for the democratic ticket, and why older voters have switched from democrat to republican.

Why would youth/education engender more liberal thinking? I can see how education would help a person break out of stereotypes and think more broadly in shades of gray.

50

[quote]forlife wrote:
Isn’t it usually the case that senior citizens vote republican, while younger/educated voters vote democrat? I’m not sure how long that has been the case, but that’s what I hear in the media at least.[/quote]

There are plenty of old Democrats who hard line their vote to the party. I had one (74) tell me just yesterday that “after watching their life stories, I’m voting for OBABMA…I hear McCain has a temper, and we don’t need that”

51

[quote]forlife wrote:

I’m curious why younger and more educated voters go for the democratic ticket, and why older voters have switched from democrat to republican.

.[/quote]

You become wiser with age. Putting food on the table and providing shelter and protection for a family changes your views.

In college you are booksmart, but liberally brainwashed too.

52

If you become wiser with age, why would most elderly people vote democrat until recently?

I think it may have to do with the morals people have, and how those morals evolve over time. Older people tend to be more socially conservative (pro life, anti-gay, etc.) than younger and more educated people.

I think education is a good innoculation against brainwashing, because you are given the tools to think for yourself. It’s people that aren’t educated, especially those raised in a fundamentalist absolutist belief system, that seem more likely to stay within the local sandbox.

53

[quote]forlife wrote:
Any responsible polling organization asks about the person’s political affiliation, and uses this information to ensure adequate representation. To your point, I’m sure there are some irresponsible polls out there but that is why it is best to look at a “poll of polls” before drawing any conclusions.

The current polls show McCain closing the gap significantly, which wouldn’t be the case if democrats were the only ones being polled.[/quote]

That’s not correct. Not all polling companies ask the party affiliation.

It is pretty well known that polls favor the Democrats and have since about 1980. The margin is about 5%. If a Dem is ahead by 5% the race is usally even. They need a 6% lead or more to win.

54

[quote]forlife wrote:

If you become wiser with age, why would most elderly people vote democrat until recently?[/quote]

Because old people mobilize and vote for the party that preserves post-retirement entitlement programs - Social Security, Medicare, prescription drug program, etc.

AARP is one of the most powerful lobbbies we have, and they have feet in both camps. Since Democrats are comfortable not reforming entitlements, old people have tended to vote their way.

Originally, before it go co-opted, that is exactly what a liberal education was supposed to do (old meaning of the word “liberal”). Not anymore - it actually encourages brainwashing nowadays.

To your question why the youth/educated vote liberal:

  1. Youth - political immaturity. Young people have no concept of basic civics or economics, they just default to politics that change the “status quo”, regardless of putting any thought into whether that change is any good. As they grow older, they wise up.

  2. Educated - those of a liberal bent tend to go for more levels of higher education. Higher education is not compulsory - it is a matter of choice. It isn’t a function of more education inclining someone toward voting in a leftward direction, it is a function of leftward tending voters being more likely to opt for more education. The reason? Most often, higher levels of education mean an interest in academia, which liberals tend to gravitate towards. Moreover, higher levels of education tends to be highly specialized, so more education doesn’t lend itself to broad-based analysis.

Short answer: people who opt for higher levels of specialized education are already left-leaning.

Perhaps, but most liberals - that is, left-leaning voters - aren’t nearly as educated as they advertise. There are functionally the same number of “fundamentalist absolutists” on the left as the right.

55

[quote]forlife wrote:
If you become wiser with age, why would most elderly people vote democrat until recently?[/quote]

Because they are bing told the Republicans want to take away their socialist security. The belief is that it was worked for. They put into it for a long time, and now want their return. Their retirement has been planned on it, or around it. It is a fear tactic that works well.

But there are also waves of political ideas. The 20th century was quite dominated by the Democratic party, so right now the older people are more likely to have been a Democrat in their lifetime. [quote]

I think it may have to do with the morals people have, and how those morals evolve over time. Older people tend to be more socially conservative (pro life, anti-gay, etc.) than younger and more educated people.

I think education is a good innoculation against brainwashing, because you are given the tools to think for yourself. It’s people that aren’t educated, especially those raised in a fundamentalist absolutist belief system, that seem more likely to stay within the local sandbox.[/quote]

Yes, those dumb religious folks am stooopeed, but wens yous get dat edumacation, yous becoum smart.

This is why the right uses the term elite. You have demonstrated it right here. “Highly educated liberals are superior to those lowly, inferior brainwashed masses of the religious and conservative.” And you don’t realize that is just what you said.

Education is not an inoculation against brainwashing, not in the slightest. The teachers tend to be quite liberal, and that liberalism is taught both overtly, and subconsciously. Education is easily twisted into a form of brainwashing.

As a magician, children are actually the hardest to perform for, and the more educated an adult, the easier they are to fool. Why? Preconceived notions. Children are less likely to have them, and the more educated a person is, the more likely they are to have them.

You easily see the dogma presented by some who are religious, but cannot see that dogma in your “educated” mind.

57

Another poll of note - the swing state of Ohio:

McCain: 51%
Obama: 44%

McCain is viewed favorably by 63% of Ohio voters and unfavorably by 35%. Obama�??s ratings are 50% favorable, 48% unfavorable.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election

60

[quote]hedo wrote:
It is pretty well known that polls favor the Democrats and have since about 1980. The margin is about 5%. [/quote]

Where does your 5% figure come from? References?