Nother chart. Disaster is coming.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
Nother chart. Disaster is coming.
[/quote]
Is this really a bad thing? Mexico isn’t exactly the safest trading partner in the world, either. Importing less oil from then is a good thing, so long as it isn’t replaced with trade from an even less desireable trading partner, which is probably the case. Let’s see Canada’s graph.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
lixy wrote:
On top of eating my underwear, I’ll quit posting on this forum for a year it ever reaches $80 or below.
You know what to do to help it happen.
No. Please tell us. [/quote]
Inflate your tires McFly!
[quote]Bill Roberts wrote:
But I guess blaming traders makes a good scapegoat for politicians?[/quote]
There are speculators in every industry. Most of us wouldn’t have a job if companies were not labor speculators.
The part I have’t quite figured out yet is how regulating speculation in the US would effect world prices for oil. Can’t one speculate from Toronto or London? I keep thinking that it can’t be quite this obvious.
[quote]The Mage wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
I saw a video explaining how this is a land grab by Pickens. I hate crooked businessmen as much as I hate crooked politicians.
A while back he mentioned it doesn’t work if the world is running on 87 million barrels a day, but we are only pumping 85.
Problem was, and this was pointed out by another expert, the numbers were wrong. We were in fact pumping at least as much as we were using.[/quote]
What?!?
Can this be??
You mean we don’t pump 730 million barrels per year less than we consume? (2 million barrels per day claimed deficit times 365 days per year.)
I had really thought we did, that 730 million barrels per year were being drawn out of crankcases of junked cars, represented drawdowns of storage and so forth to make up that difference!
[quote]Bill Roberts wrote:
What?!?
Can this be??
You mean we don’t pump 730 million barrels per year less than we consume? (2 million barrels per day claimed deficit times 365 days per year.)
I had really thought we did, that 730 million barrels per year were being drawn out of crankcases of junked cars, represented drawdowns of storage and so forth to make up that difference! [/quote]
How dare you do math. :^P
I have heard this faulty number repeated over and over. The funny thing is the oil companies actually can’t sell all their oil. Some people are wondering what the 15 super tankers that can hold 30 million barrels of oil are doing just sitting on Iran’s coast for months. (It is believed they are full.)
[quote]lixy wrote:
On top of eating my underwear, I’ll quit posting on this forum for a year it ever reaches $80 or below.
You know what to do to help it happen.[/quote]
if it reaches 80 dolllars I make very little money as I have stock in oil.
the prices going up is kind of bitter sweet but I bought in when it was around 76 dollars a barrel.
I think personally it will go up and go down but it will never get anywhere close to where it was and it will always go in that upword trend overall.
[quote]Nich wrote:
if it reaches 80 dolllars I make very little money as I have stock in oil.
the prices going up is kind of bitter sweet but I bought in when it was around 76 dollars a barrel.
I think personally it will go up and go down but it will never get anywhere close to where it was and it will always go in that upword trend overall.
[/quote]
Why do you have stock in oil? Do you mean the oil companies? (Oil is a commodity by the way.) Even if oil goes down, the oil companies can still make money.
Anyway, never say never. Technology is a wonderful thing. I once read that if they increase their capability of getting oil out of the ground by 5%, we suddenly have the equivalent of another Saudi Arabia worth of oil.
no your right,I hold stock in the companies themselves and not in oil.
I hold stock in royal dutch shell,chevronTexaco,BP marathon oil,exxonMobil and conoco phillips.that one in brasil I wont say it cause i cant spell the damn name.
a few others.I am looking into a company I have written down,forget the name,but they are in canada and sitting on thousands of acres of fields and ready to tap into that soon,they are looking for permits right now,if they get them thats a different story
if gasoline prices skyrocket it sucks for me because my business is based on cars and if people cant afford to fuel them then they dont drive if they dont drive then they dont need to maintain the car.
and vice versa drive more break more stuff and I fix more get more money but I loose in the oil companies.
well not loose I just dont make as much.
its well known the human population is raising,more people the higher demand we have on oil.
I really do not think that we really can get away from our dependancy of oil and oil products.
price of oil will go up along with the demand,thast what I think anyways.
was just 10 years ago gas was $1.10 a gallon
you could find arco gas where I lived for $1.00 a gallon
now look at it
[quote]Nich wrote:
no your right,I hold stock in the companies themselves and not in oil.
I hold stock in royal dutch shell,chevronTexaco,BP marathon oil,exxonMobil and conoco phillips.that one in brasil I wont say it cause i cant spell the damn name.
a few others.I am looking into a company I have written down,forget the name,but they are in canada and sitting on thousands of acres of fields and ready to tap into that soon,they are looking for permits right now,if they get them thats a different story
if gasoline prices skyrocket it sucks for me because my business is based on cars and if people cant afford to fuel them then they dont drive if they dont drive then they dont need to maintain the car.
and vice versa drive more break more stuff and I fix more get more money but I loose in the oil companies.
well not loose I just dont make as much.
its well known the human population is raising,more people the higher demand we have on oil.
I really do not think that we really can get away from our dependancy of oil and oil products.
price of oil will go up along with the demand,thast what I think anyways.
was just 10 years ago gas was $1.10 a gallon
you could find arco gas where I lived for $1.00 a gallon
now look at it
[/quote]
The spike in crude has actually hurt the margins of the major oil companies. Their margins and stock values seem to be at their highest with oil in the $80-$100 range. You have to remember, that most of the profits of the companies you listed come from the refining business. The refiners and resalers can only raise the price of the final product so much so fast, and their is a lag between supply and demand of gas and supply and demand of crude. It is largely the OPEC countries that are the only ones turning large profits because of the jump in crude.
[quote]Nich wrote:
lixy wrote:
On top of eating my underwear, I’ll quit posting on this forum for a year it ever reaches $80 or below.
You know what to do to help it happen.
if it reaches 80 dolllars I make very little money as I have stock in oil.
the prices going up is kind of bitter sweet but I bought in when it was around 76 dollars a barrel.
I think personally it will go up and go down but it will never get anywhere close to where it was and it will always go in that upword trend overall.
[/quote]
Because the coming depression is rooted in the banking system and fractional reserve banking acts like a multiplier in reverse during deflation, you might see an utter collapse in commodities. As money flees from the 3rd world and from places like Venezuela, seeking safe havens in lawful markets, we might get a stock rally before the depression really takes hold. There’s a place to gamble, if you want.
I’m currently heavy in T-Bills (FWIW).
[quote]tedro wrote:
Nich wrote:
no your right,I hold stock in the companies themselves and not in oil.
I hold stock in royal dutch shell,chevronTexaco,BP marathon oil,exxonMobil and conoco phillips.that one in brasil I wont say it cause i cant spell the damn name.
a few others.I am looking into a company I have written down,forget the name,but they are in canada and sitting on thousands of acres of fields and ready to tap into that soon,they are looking for permits right now,if they get them thats a different story
if gasoline prices skyrocket it sucks for me because my business is based on cars and if people cant afford to fuel them then they dont drive if they dont drive then they dont need to maintain the car.
and vice versa drive more break more stuff and I fix more get more money but I loose in the oil companies.
well not loose I just dont make as much.
its well known the human population is raising,more people the higher demand we have on oil.
I really do not think that we really can get away from our dependancy of oil and oil products.
price of oil will go up along with the demand,thast what I think anyways.
was just 10 years ago gas was $1.10 a gallon
you could find arco gas where I lived for $1.00 a gallon
now look at it
The spike in crude has actually hurt the margins of the major oil companies. Their margins and stock values seem to be at their highest with oil in the $80-$100 range. You have to remember, that most of the profits of the companies you listed come from the refining business. The refiners and resalers can only raise the price of the final product so much so fast, and their is a lag between supply and demand of gas and supply and demand of crude. It is largely the OPEC countries that are the only ones turning large profits because of the jump in crude.[/quote]
It’s not just OPEC profiting form the oil price spike. People owning domestic wells are doing quite nicely as well. I have a family member that has about 30 producing wells (oil and gas)on his property. When the price goes up, so does his royalty checks.
It also doesn’t hurt the drillers and the supporting industries. The Midland/Odessa, Texas area is booming. And by booming, I mean “fuck the price of gasoline, let’s by another Hummer” booming.
[quote]dhickey wrote:
Bill Roberts wrote:
But I guess blaming traders makes a good scapegoat for politicians?
There are speculators in every industry. Most of us wouldn’t have a job if companies were not labor speculators.
The part I have’t quite figured out yet is how regulating speculation in the US would effect world prices for oil. Can’t one speculate from Toronto or London? I keep thinking that it can’t be quite this obvious.
[/quote]
Speculation isn’t dependent on location, but it is dependent on it’s market and the location of that market. In the instance of oil, if you placed speculative limits on the holding number of contracts on the NYMEX then you would effectively cap speculation on whatever percentage of volume that marketplace represents in the overall market. This in and of itself would not cap speculation, as it does nothing to limit the number of players in the field. In most scenarios, the true speculators would create other entities that cannot be aggregated back to them in order to take a larger position. Likewise, you would most likely see volume move from one marketplace with the tightened restrictions to a new exchange that has more liberal holding limits.
As we have seen in the recent decade first with technology stocks and then with real estate, a few occurances usually drive speculation from one market to the next. 1. A bursting of the expectation that the price of the underlying asset will continue to appreciate at a particular rate. 2. A sense of fear replaces a sense of greed in the last players to have entered the marketplace, these are usually the most highly leveraged. 3. A violation or near violation of equity holding requirements for the most leveraged positions and 4. A further reduction in available credit to that particular marketplace.
Usually the bursting of an asset bubble (removal of the speculative premium) starts at either number 1 or number 4 and the others fall in line.
By capping speculative limits on the NYMEX, you are effectively providing number 4 and possibly number 3 which would lead to number 2 certainly then providing a case for number 1.
No one knows how much speculative premium is in the marketplace, just like no one actually knew how much was in real estate in Florida, Nevada, or California.
The nice thing about speculators is that they would just move on to something else where expectations are starting to increase for that particular asset.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
tedro wrote:
Nich wrote:
no your right,I hold stock in the companies themselves and not in oil.
I hold stock in royal dutch shell,chevronTexaco,BP marathon oil,exxonMobil and conoco phillips.that one in brasil I wont say it cause i cant spell the damn name.
a few others.I am looking into a company I have written down,forget the name,but they are in canada and sitting on thousands of acres of fields and ready to tap into that soon,they are looking for permits right now,if they get them thats a different story
if gasoline prices skyrocket it sucks for me because my business is based on cars and if people cant afford to fuel them then they dont drive if they dont drive then they dont need to maintain the car.
and vice versa drive more break more stuff and I fix more get more money but I loose in the oil companies.
well not loose I just dont make as much.
its well known the human population is raising,more people the higher demand we have on oil.
I really do not think that we really can get away from our dependancy of oil and oil products.
price of oil will go up along with the demand,thast what I think anyways.
was just 10 years ago gas was $1.10 a gallon
you could find arco gas where I lived for $1.00 a gallon
now look at it
The spike in crude has actually hurt the margins of the major oil companies. Their margins and stock values seem to be at their highest with oil in the $80-$100 range. You have to remember, that most of the profits of the companies you listed come from the refining business. The refiners and resalers can only raise the price of the final product so much so fast, and their is a lag between supply and demand of gas and supply and demand of crude. It is largely the OPEC countries that are the only ones turning large profits because of the jump in crude.
It’s not just OPEC profiting form the oil price spike. People owning domestic wells are doing quite nicely as well. I have a family member that has about 30 producing wells (oil and gas)on his property. When the price goes up, so does his royalty checks.
It also doesn’t hurt the drillers and the supporting industries. The Midland/Odessa, Texas area is booming. And by booming, I mean “fuck the price of gasoline, let’s by another Hummer” booming.
[/quote]
I don’t doubt this at all. My point was simply that the major oil companies of the US and Europe did not benefit because of the record jumps in crude. The beneficiaries were those whose businesses are largely or exclusively involved in the sale of crude, which is by and large OPEC, but surely includes some of those involved with domestic wells.
[quote]tedro wrote:
I don’t doubt this at all. My point was simply that the major oil companies of the US and Europe did not benefit because of the record jumps in crude. The beneficiaries were those whose businesses are largely or exclusively involved in the sale of crude, which is by and large OPEC, but surely includes some of those involved with domestic wells.[/quote]
They profited, but not to the extent that OPEC and other producers did.
One of my clients is a gas station. The bulk of his business is selling massive amounts of farm diesel to farmers.
He prices his fuel based on his cost plus 10% (rough estimate). So when diesel is costing him $1.00/gallon, he’s selling it for $1.10. When his cost is $2.00/gallon, he sells for $2.20. Same diesel. Same customer, and he’s doubled his gross profit. Granted, his overhead is going to go up a little because of his consumption of more expensive power, but it’s not going to double.
I’m no expert on the big oil companies, but I think their pricing strategy is similar.
I do agree that there is a point of diminishing returns on the higher oil prices, and we have seen that. The US is not that upset about $3.00 gas, but will stop driving so much at $4.00. When gas topped $4/gallon, demand fell of pretty dramatically.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
tedro wrote:
I don’t doubt this at all. My point was simply that the major oil companies of the US and Europe did not benefit because of the record jumps in crude. The beneficiaries were those whose businesses are largely or exclusively involved in the sale of crude, which is by and large OPEC, but surely includes some of those involved with domestic wells.
They profited, but not to the extent that OPEC and other producers did.
One of my clients is a gas station. The bulk of his business is selling massive amounts of farm diesel to farmers.
He prices his fuel based on his cost plus 10% (rough estimate). So when diesel is costing him $1.00/gallon, he’s selling it for $1.10. When his cost is $2.00/gallon, he sells for $2.20. Same diesel. Same customer, and he’s doubled his gross profit. Granted, his overhead is going to go up a little because of his consumption of more expensive power, but it’s not going to double.
I’m no expert on the big oil companies, but I think their pricing strategy is similar.
I do agree that there is a point of diminishing returns on the higher oil prices, and we have seen that. The US is not that upset about $3.00 gas, but will stop driving so much at $4.00. When gas topped $4/gallon, demand fell of pretty dramatically.
[/quote]
I don’t know what the situation is there, but around here there is little competition for farm diesel, and even less competition amongst those that will deliver large amounts. The local coop is the only place within at least a 25 mile radius where one can have the supplier come out and fill farm tanks. That doesn’t change much throughout the rest of the state, it’s actually probably worse in most other areas. Also, I would guess that your client is contracting with the farmers, which introduces speculation and futures to that small market, requiring him to increase his margins a bit to hedge against rising wholesale prices.
I’m not an expert either, but because of these reasons, I don’t think your typical gasoline retailer is able to mark up a given %. The competition is magnitudes higher for 87-93 gas than it is for farm deisel. This falls in line with some of what we have seen in the market. Exxon Mobil is selling off all of their retail stores because they are no longer profitable. The margins at the pump can’t cover the extra energy expenditure, the extra insurance for storing higher dollar amounts worth of gas, etc.
[quote]tedro wrote:
I’m not an expert either, but because of these reasons, I don’t think your typical gasoline retailer is able to mark up a given %. The competition is magnitudes higher for 87-93 gas than it is for farm deisel. This falls in line with some of what we have seen in the market. Exxon Mobil is selling off all of their retail stores because they are no longer profitable. The margins at the pump can’t cover the extra energy expenditure, the extra insurance for storing higher dollar amounts worth of gas, etc.[/quote]
In areas of higher competition, the margins are probably going to be narrower.
But he prices his gasoline at the pump the same way, only he shoots for a 15% markup on regular no-lead, and 20-25% for premium.
Someone is making money selling gasoline to the end user, or there would be anyone selling gasoline.
Breaking news:
[i]OPEC decides to curb overproduction
By Associated Press
12 HOURS AGO
VIENNA, Austria - OPEC oil ministers have decided to curb overproduction by more than 500,000 barrels.
The move is a compromise meant to avoid new turmoil in oil markets while at the same time reflecting OPEC attempts to prevent prices from falling too far. Crude prices have dropped nearly 30 percent since spiking to nearly $150 a barrel in July.
An OPEC statement issued after oil ministers ended their meeting early Wednesday said the organization agreed to produce 28.8 million barrels a day. OPEC President Chakib Khelil said that quota in effect meant that member countries agreed to cut back 530,000 barrels a day in overproduction…[/i]
[quote]ALDurr wrote:
Breaking news:
[i]OPEC decides to curb overproduction
By Associated Press
12 HOURS AGO
VIENNA, Austria - OPEC oil ministers have decided to curb overproduction by more than 500,000 barrels.
The move is a compromise meant to avoid new turmoil in oil markets while at the same time reflecting OPEC attempts to prevent prices from falling too far. Crude prices have dropped nearly 30 percent since spiking to nearly $150 a barrel in July.
An OPEC statement issued after oil ministers ended their meeting early Wednesday said the organization agreed to produce 28.8 million barrels a day. OPEC President Chakib Khelil said that quota in effect meant that member countries agreed to cut back 530,000 barrels a day in overproduction…[/i]
This is pathetic on OPEC’s part. But it was largely only a symbolic cutback. 500,000 barrels a day? Hardly newsworthy - but like I was saying, the press has a gushing orgasm hen the news is bad. It is basically only cutting back to where they were before Bush asked them to increase production earlier in the summer.
So far today, oil is still under $5/bl.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
ALDurr wrote:
Breaking news:
[i]OPEC decides to curb overproduction
By Associated Press
12 HOURS AGO
VIENNA, Austria - OPEC oil ministers have decided to curb overproduction by more than 500,000 barrels.
The move is a compromise meant to avoid new turmoil in oil markets while at the same time reflecting OPEC attempts to prevent prices from falling too far. Crude prices have dropped nearly 30 percent since spiking to nearly $150 a barrel in July.
An OPEC statement issued after oil ministers ended their meeting early Wednesday said the organization agreed to produce 28.8 million barrels a day. OPEC President Chakib Khelil said that quota in effect meant that member countries agreed to cut back 530,000 barrels a day in overproduction…[/i]
This is pathetic on OPEC’s part. But it was largely only a symbolic cutback. 500,000 barrels a day? Hardly newsworthy - but like I was saying, the press has a gushing orgasm hen the news is bad. It is basically only cutting back to where they were before Bush asked them to increase production earlier in the summer.
So far today, oil is still under $5/bl.
[/quote]
I agree, but did you see the part where he states that people are used to $100/barrel for oil? Won’t that affect the bet on here?