Will Obama run in 2008? Can he occupy the center that Hillary wants to own?
My guess is that he will make a run. The author makes a good point, Washington will taint him if he is there too long. Either a presidential run or shot at being governor would be a smart political move.
OBAMA IN '08?
Can a promising politician go to Washington and NOT make a run for president?
By Jeff Zeleny
Washington Bureau- Chicago Tribune
May 28, 2006
WASHINGTON – The roster of aspiring presidential candidates seems to grow by the week here in the nation’s capital, where the season of speculation and seduction is in full blossom.
Never mind that the urgent political matter for Republicans and Democrats is the fight for control of Congress, considering Election Day is less than six months away. These days, two questions rise above most others in the echo chamber: Who, exactly, is flirting with a bid for the White House and is Sen. Barack Obama among them?
It’s a ritual that unfolds every four years, at this very time, when politicians openly dream, tease and ruminate about their presidential ambitions, knowing full well there is hardly a downside to such public conjecture. Among Democrats, the scurry is particularly intense.
But those who almost certainly are running–Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), for example–sidestep the question and insist they are focused on their own re-election campaigns. And those who most likely are not running seem content to simply bask in the renewed attention, such as former Vice President Al Gore, whose release of a documentary on global warming has spawned new gossip about his future.
There also are those who fall into another category entirely–the fresh-face, what-if-Clinton-fails, why-not-try-it category–which is where Obama, an Illinois Democrat, finds himself after serving less than 18 months in the Senate.
In recent weeks, Washington chatter about Obama eyeing the presidential race has increased. Leading Senate Democrats and party activists have privately urged him to consider a campaign, or at the very least, to leave the door open for a possible last-minute entry.
When asked about the chance of his name appearing on a 2008 ticket, Obama responded in an interview: “Ha, ha!” He quickly tried to change the subject, but when pressed for an answer, he said: “There are people who think I should make an announcement tomorrow that I’m running for the presidency.”
So how does Obama respond to such flattery?
“I tell them,” he said, “that I’m focusing on my job as a senator from Illinois.”
That stock answer, however, does little to settle the question.
Absent a blood oath, perhaps, speculation is sure to swell among his admirers whose rationale for why he should run goes something like this: He doesn’t carry baggage for voting for the Iraq war (he wasn’t in the Senate at the time and he spoke against it during his campaign). He is 44 years old and by Election Day 2008, he will be 47, which is one year older than Bill Clinton was in 1992. His celebrity appeal, which will be demonstrated anew on a book tour that could last up to six months, exceeds any Democrat in the race except Sen. Clinton.
“He brings a level of excitement to the political debate, which is the envy of every elected official,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate. “There is a need for Barack Obama’s leadership in America. I have talked to him informally about this. I hope that he will seriously consider it.”
But just as many supporters believe that now is not Obama’s moment. They urge him to patiently build his knowledge on foreign policy and domestic issues to gain seasoning that could withstand the test of a presidential campaign. And, they said, waiting for another time would perhaps lessen pressures on his family, including his two young daughters.
The longer he waits, though, the more steeped in Washington he becomes. And history is not kind to those who seek the presidency from the Senate. Even after serving less than two years, he often takes pains to portray himself as a newcomer to the scene.
“I am not one of those people who grew up at the age of 7 thinking I was going to be president someday,” he said in a speech earlier this month. “I sort of came through the back door into politics.”
Washington seers detect other signs, though, that he is preparing for the future.
He quietly brought aboard two respected Democratic operatives with presidential campaign experience to build a national organization to keep pace with his growing profile: Anita Dunn to head his political action committee, the Hopefund, and Minyon Moore to improve outreach to African-Americans.
“The reality is, the scope of what I’m doing is very narrow,” said Dunn, whose assignment includes such tasks as sending thank-you notes to donors who have yet to hear from Obama despite contributing months ago. “It is not a strategic role.”
Obama is keeping a strategically interesting calendar, however. He is delivering a commencement address Friday at the University of Massachusetts-Boston. He also is adding battleground Ohio to the list of Democratic fundraising dinners he has headlined this year as he travels across the country to elevate his profile and help Democratic candidates.
Since being sworn into office, he has traveled to 25 states.
“He enjoys his name being out there as a rising star, a top draw, so it makes sense to keep his name in the circle,” said Donna Brazile, a longtime Democratic strategist. “But I see no evidence that he has the big P on his agenda–the big presidential campaign.”
This season, there are plenty of Democrats who do.
Last week, Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut added his name to the list that already includes Sens. Evan Bayh of Indiana, Joseph Biden of Delaware, Russ Feingold of Wisconsin and John Kerry of Massachusetts.
Former Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina and Tom Daschle of South Dakota as well as Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner round out the list of Democrats exploring presidential bids.
And, of course, there is Clinton.
Her name recognition and fundraising ability overshadow virtually everyone else in the race, which is why most other Democrats concede they are running as the Plan B. It’s an open question whether Obama will add his name to the list.
“A lot of people are talking about him running for president eventually, but I think it’s premature at this point,” said Elizabeth Bagley, an ambassador to Portugal in the Clinton administration who recently hosted Obama and other senators at a fundraiser for Senate Democrats. “But the speculation is certainly not a bad thing.”
Among the dinner guests in her Georgetown home that evening was Dodd, the five-term senator who came close to running in 2004 but declined. This year he jumped in as one of several Democrats hoping that a White House bid would be the capstone of their Washington careers.
“In a lot of cases, this is probably their last opportunity. If Hillary is the front-runner and something happens that she stumbles, they will be there,” Bagley said. “They would like to be president, but they know that the Barack Obamas and other new faces will soon be coming up behind them.”
