Ha! hahahaha.
[quote]tribunaldude wrote:
A person who has his finger on the pulse of consumer opinion (the economy). There are but 2-3 of these left on the planet.
Neuromancer wrote:
What is a radical economic theoretician?
[/quote]
You must mean an alarmist who turns out to always be wrong…
I love conspiracy theories! It protects me from thinking.
I’ll bet you say that to all of your first dates.
[quote]GumsMagoo wrote:
Just. The. Tip. and only twice.
I’ll bet you say that to all of your first dates.[/quote]
fixed it.
Excerpted from the September 2007 Elliott Wave Theorist by Bob Prechter
FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELT
- "Investors should stay in the safest cash equivalents. There is a high probability that a financial crisis will expose weaknesses in overly leveraged banks. Make sure you are not one of the suckers who has lent them deposits.
Real estate, stock shares, commodities, most bonds (corporate, municipal and mortgage) and even most bank CDs are likely to produce losses eventually�?�. I presume our readers took steps some time ago to protect their savings by keeping them in Treasury bills, Swiss money market claims,
Outright cash and as deposits in one or more of the perhaps dozen truly safe banks, money-market funds and insurance policies in the world, as instructed in Conquer the Crash. T-bills have outperformed the S&P 500 for the past seven years, and their relative performance is likely to soar in coming weeks and years, simply by not producing losses."
- "The market is certainly poised for a panic. Confidence has held sway for 2½ decades, during which time investors have become utterly unconcerned with risk. They hold a number of misconceptions that foster such complacency.
The day the Fed lowers one of its rates or engineers a major temporary loan and the stock market goes down anyway is the day that investors will become utterly uncertain of what they believe about market causality, and panic will have no bridle.
Sadly, Ben Bernanke will be blamed for the debacle, when all he will have been guilty of is serving an immoral monopoly, bad timing and failing to understand the forces at work. The third item pertains to almost everyone."
- "Three things signal an approaching economic contraction:
(1) The yield curve is racing back to normal after being inverted for over six months�?� now that short rates are falling back below long rates, we know that the demand for short-term loans is down, indicating a cooling economy.
(2) Silver topped out over a year ago and remains weak. Silver is an industrial metal, and along with copper leads changes in the economy.
(3) The stock market seems to have begun wave c in July. That�??s all you need to know to forecast an economic contraction.
“Economists are nearly unanimous that things are fine. If our Elliott wave interpretation is right, the economy is heading not just into recession but into depression. The size of the stock market decline will determine the extent of the contraction. The bigger it becomes, the deeper the contraction will be.”
[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
I would also recommend holding euros instead of dollars (
^^ you must be joking? Europe is in far worse shape, as is the Euro.
No, because we have a fundamentally sound economy.
You don´t.
lol[/quote]
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
[quote]orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
I would also recommend holding euros instead of dollars (
^^ you must be joking? Europe is in far worse shape, as is the Euro.
No, because we have a fundamentally sound economy.
You don´t.
lol
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
[/quote]
Yes your banks are involved in the largest lending bubble in history. Yes you are in worse shape than the US. Yes you are in denial. Yes, Europe’s schadenfreude is about to give way to their highly developed sense of irony.
[Edit: please feel free to send me cash - in Austrian schillings, though; please no Euros :-)]
You can PayPal me. Something tells me the re-distributive changes coming aren’t going to benefit people of my skin color.
Defense is actually only 4% of our total budget, and is an expenditure actually mandated by the Constitution. Unfortunately, no one knows how much money has been given to the Arabs in Iraq and the Pashtuns in Afghanistan to buy them off from waging perpetual jihad, or how much Congress has cooked the books to make the defense budget smaller than it is.
By simply closing our borders to Islamic immigration, we could, of course, reduce our need for a defense industry to almost nil.
[quote]katzenjammer wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
I would also recommend holding euros instead of dollars (
^^ you must be joking? Europe is in far worse shape, as is the Euro.
No, because we have a fundamentally sound economy.
You don´t.
lol
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
Yes your banks are involved in the largest lending bubble in history. Yes you are in worse shape than the US. Yes you are in denial. Yes, Europe’s schadenfreude is about to give way to their highly developed sense of irony.
[/quote]
Did you actually read the article?
Yes, a few of our banks are fucked and non-Euro curreencies will be kicked up and down just for fun, but what has that to do with our real economy?
We are like Japan in the early 90´s, we can simply sit this one out.
The huge malinvestments of the US economy just aren´t there.
[quote]orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
I would also recommend holding euros instead of dollars (
^^ you must be joking? Europe is in far worse shape, as is the Euro.
No, because we have a fundamentally sound economy.
You don´t.
lol
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
Yes your banks are involved in the largest lending bubble in history. Yes you are in worse shape than the US. Yes you are in denial. Yes, Europe’s schadenfreude is about to give way to their highly developed sense of irony.
Did you actually read the article?
Yes, a few of our banks are fucked and non-Euro curreencies will be kicked up and down just for fun, but what has that to do with our real economy?
We are like Japan in the early 90´s, we can simply sit this one out.
The huge malinvestments of the US economy just aren´t there.
[/quote]
Wow. You are in serious denial. Or you haven’t read the piece I linked. Or you’re smoking more of that Austrian hash. Enjoy your schadenfreude while you can - it won’t last long.
Here’s just one short sentence in that piece: “Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP - with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia - all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.”
[quote]orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
I would also recommend holding euros instead of dollars (
^^ you must be joking? Europe is in far worse shape, as is the Euro.
No, because we have a fundamentally sound economy.
You don´t.
lol
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
[/quote]
Europe is facing the same problems if not worse than the US. You have made so many bad loans in South America, Asia and Russia that the sub prime crisis in the US looks minor.
[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
I would also recommend holding euros instead of dollars (
^^ you must be joking? Europe is in far worse shape, as is the Euro.
No, because we have a fundamentally sound economy.
You don´t.
lol
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
Europe is facing the same problems if not worse than the US. You have made so many bad loans in South America, Asia and Russia that the sub prime crisis in the US looks minor.
[/quote]
Again, you confuse the financial crisis with the re-structuring of the economy that has to follow.
[quote]katzenjammer wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
I would also recommend holding euros instead of dollars (
^^ you must be joking? Europe is in far worse shape, as is the Euro.
No, because we have a fundamentally sound economy.
You don´t.
lol
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
Yes your banks are involved in the largest lending bubble in history. Yes you are in worse shape than the US. Yes you are in denial. Yes, Europe’s schadenfreude is about to give way to their highly developed sense of irony.
Did you actually read the article?
Yes, a few of our banks are fucked and non-Euro curreencies will be kicked up and down just for fun, but what has that to do with our real economy?
We are like Japan in the early 90´s, we can simply sit this one out.
The huge malinvestments of the US economy just aren´t there.
Wow. You are in serious denial. Or you haven’t read the piece I linked. Or you’re smoking more of that Austrian hash. Enjoy your schadenfreude while you can - it won’t last long.
Here’s just one short sentence in that piece: “Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP - with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia - all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.”
[/quote]
So in the worst case scenario we own half of Eastern Europe?
[quote]orion wrote:
Again, you confuse the financial crisis with the re-structuring of the economy that has to follow.
[/quote]
We will be fine.
[quote]orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
I would also recommend holding euros instead of dollars (
^^ you must be joking? Europe is in far worse shape, as is the Euro.
No, because we have a fundamentally sound economy.
You don´t.
lol
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
Yes your banks are involved in the largest lending bubble in history. Yes you are in worse shape than the US. Yes you are in denial. Yes, Europe’s schadenfreude is about to give way to their highly developed sense of irony.
Did you actually read the article?
Yes, a few of our banks are fucked and non-Euro curreencies will be kicked up and down just for fun, but what has that to do with our real economy?
We are like Japan in the early 90´s, we can simply sit this one out.
The huge malinvestments of the US economy just aren´t there.
Wow. You are in serious denial. Or you haven’t read the piece I linked. Or you’re smoking more of that Austrian hash. Enjoy your schadenfreude while you can - it won’t last long.
Here’s just one short sentence in that piece: “Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP - with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia - all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.”
So in the worst case scenario we own half of Eastern Europe?
[/quote]
What it means is that you’re participating in a truly massive lending bubble - just like the US - only it’s much worse.
This is why the dollar has been strengthening; not because the US is doing better, but because investors are quite aware that Europe is facing even worse prospects.
[edit: btw, orion, I really suggest reading the article - I do think you’ll find it interesting.]
[quote]PRCalDude wrote:
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
You can PayPal me. Something tells me the re-distributive changes coming aren’t going to benefit people of my skin color.
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Defense is actually only 4% of our total budget [/quote]
No, 4% of GDP, more like 30-40% of the federal budget. And as you said, those numbers are highly suspect.
[quote]katzenjammer wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
orion wrote:
Zap Branigan wrote:
orion wrote:
katzenjammer wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
I would also recommend holding euros instead of dollars (
^^ you must be joking? Europe is in far worse shape, as is the Euro.
No, because we have a fundamentally sound economy.
You don´t.
lol
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
Yes your banks are involved in the largest lending bubble in history. Yes you are in worse shape than the US. Yes you are in denial. Yes, Europe’s schadenfreude is about to give way to their highly developed sense of irony.
Did you actually read the article?
Yes, a few of our banks are fucked and non-Euro curreencies will be kicked up and down just for fun, but what has that to do with our real economy?
We are like Japan in the early 90´s, we can simply sit this one out.
The huge malinvestments of the US economy just aren´t there.
I read it, but trust me, nobody needed to tell me that banks around here start getting nervous.
Wow. You are in serious denial. Or you haven’t read the piece I linked. Or you’re smoking more of that Austrian hash. Enjoy your schadenfreude while you can - it won’t last long.
Here’s just one short sentence in that piece: “Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP - with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia - all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.”
So in the worst case scenario we own half of Eastern Europe?
What it means is that you’re participating in a truly massive lending bubble - just like the US - only it’s much worse.
This is why the dollar has been strengthening; not because the US is doing better, but because investors are quite aware that Europe is facing even worse prospects.
[edit: btw, orion, I really suggest reading the article - I do think you’ll find it interesting.][/quote]
I read it, but trust me, nobody needed to tell me that banks around here start getting nervous.
edit: I have spent the last 2 weeks explaining to friends what their banks really wanted from them.
And, while I still remain a true believer when it comes to capitalism, those bankers can be slick, greedy assholes.
But, somehow, there is something very Austrian about it when you tell a banker, in a roundabout way, that he is trying to anally rape someone and he tells you, in a very roundabout way, that he is terribly sorry but his board of directors, um, kind of degreed what would be “best for the customers”.
Sometimes I kind of do not know whether we are just a bunch of degenerate hypocrites or surprisingly frank and honest when you speak the code.
You guys just don;t get it.
-
STOP INVESTING AND LEARN TO TRADE. At this point, the only thing worth holding medium term → precious metal assets. Especially with the short squeeze on gold prices.
-
Convert ALL your remaining liquid assets to euros/GBP and go long for a month or so.
-
Look for a certified R.E.T in your area and run your plans by him/her.They will give you better advice than your broker.
-
Pray…for the horror that is November will be unspeakable.
-
Visit the website of the one group that is IMMUNE to the economic crisis and controls it with puppet strings
(also featured in a documentary about real-life Opus Deis)
Europe is fucked just as bad, but you do have a less vulnerable economy, I’ll give you that.
[quote]orion wrote:
Is 15-20% of our GDP financial services?
Did we have a housing bubble that has yet to ruin hundreds if not thousand small construction firms?
Do we have a weapons industry that will have to shrink as the whole American empire becomes unsustainable?
Did we live beyond our means or do we have billions of private savings?
I think I´ll stand by my assessment.
Feel free to PM me where to send the care packages.
[/quote]