He’ll probably apply the same strategy the Russians have applied in the past - don’t allow the US to position the problem as a black/white situation but keep it in shades of gray.
For example, they can launch a missile towards Guam that falls well short. NK has done this in the past with Japan.
So far Trump’s bluff has been called several times in foreign policy matters. Russia and China are watching very closely, the Russians even starting to take the NK side in their media narrative.
If Pres Trump cancels the arms sale to Taiwan, will China reign in N. Korea?
As an America First guy, I thought it was pretty cool when Pres Trump said Fuck China, and spoke to Taiwan. Lately, as an International Relations Analysist, I’m not sure it was worth it.
I’m not inclined to think that China is wanting a tussle with the US over N Korea.
US has 60x more deployed nuclear weapons compared to China’s total stockpile.
You know those numbers are meaningless right? It’s like saying the other guy doesn’t want to fight because he can only end the world 13 times, while you can end it 16.
I know your reply was worthless.
Do you really think the US is cowed by anyone in the world militarily? Or that China wants to get into a shooting war with the US over ‘defending’ North Korea? Forget nuclear, our navy and airforce are stronger than the rest of the world combined.
Or do you think that perhaps China, Russia, and others attempt to undermine US hegemony whenever there is an opportunity? And if there is a bellicose player that agitates the US, then these competitors are on board.
Of course they are. Only idiots like NK aren’t correctly afraid of a nuclear war.
I don’t think China wants a war. But I also know the reason isn’t “60x nuclear stockpile” because that number doesn’t matter. If China wanted to end the US in mutually assured destruction we’re not going to stop them with extra nukes.
Why would China want this kind of a wildcard regime on it’s border?
Because if the Korean peninsula was united under the South, they wouldn’t want a US partner so close to it’s border? Than why not reach out to South Korea, if you are China with a nonaggression economic treaty beneficial to both sides? Better a strong economy on your border than a threat which could effect both countries in negative ways?
Because of a buffer state in case of an attack? China has 12,000 miles of coast with nothing to buffer it from an attack…if anyone wanted to attack China why wouldn’t it strike there first?
Sleight of Hand!
While all eyes and attention are on N. Korea, China’s currency stays on the floating peg, and construction continues in the South China Sea.
The North Koreans are going to do absolutely nothing. The fat faced kid with a bad hair cut knows that the US would obliterate them. He’s merely saber rattling.
At 71, he’s hardly a kid. Show a little respect for the POTUS!
Bazinga.
Agree with this entirely. They like keeping a rabid dog around because while everyone is worried about the dog they’re able to get away with a lot of items, even human rights violations, and by comparison to NK nobody gives too much guff to them because they look gentle and civilized.
This is T Nation PWI threads since when have we ever showed respect for the POTUS?
This situation exists because North Korea is useful to China. That’s why all those Korean missiles look like Chinese missiles. The Chinese are trying to use the North Korean’s to blackmail us into maintaining the bad trade deals we are in with China.
I think we also need to look at this situation in the context of China’s announced “countdown to war” with India. The Chinese are not going to want the US and South Korea start a war to reunite the Korean peninsula while their military are tied up on their western border in a war with India.
Great, now they have the H-bomb. We should put all our efforts into greater missile defense and spread some nuclear weapons to our allies, their enemies in the region. Imagine how China would feel if Vietnam, for instance, claimed to have a nuke aimed at them? How soon before action would be taken by all parties to further prevent this from spreading?
Thought I’d bring this topic up again in light of this week’s events. What is the logical outcome of this situation?
We negotiate a peaceful resolution to this problem and live with the Kim regime.
The Kim regime attacks the South with Russian and Chinese backing and we do nothing to stop it because we have no alternative since if we intervene there will be global nuclear war.
The Chinese do something to defuse this situation. What’s the chances of this happening or the US and the Chinese negotiating a Korean state which does not involve the North because of regime change put in place by all of the major players in the region?
Preemptive strike against the North by the US and it’s allies also leading to a major conflict in the region.