I just don’t see the Political benefit of Haley becoming Trump’s VP.
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Nope. She needs to distance herself from trump and develop a “safe and sane” brand as a modern progressive conservative.
If Biden wins, this country will be clamoring for ANYONE but another old ass white dude with diminished mental capacity.
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Assume Biden wins, dies early in the term and his female VP pick is POTUS for let’s say 2-3 years, what then? Won’t the public want someone different to challenge the incumbent?
The biggest card Haley has to play is “first woman president”. If someone else gets there first, she isn’t special anymore.
Nor do I though I do think it would certainly boost his chances and provide a fresh voice for him. Pence won’t be the reason he wins or loses though and I don’t think she would either fully though I would lay better odds myself if she was on the team.
But we have discussed this before and I just don’t see how someone in her position truly benefits if she thinks she could win in 2024.
If she runs with him and he loses she is likely done for like Palin was on the national level (even if I think she is far more gifted politically). If she runs with him and Trump wins do we really expect the Trump brand to be strong enough to not tie her down in 2024? It’s definitely a possibility that it could be but it is placing your bet on someone who has consistently polled as one of the least popular Presidents of all time. When you add that to the fact that after 8 years we often like to kick the ball to the other side I’m just not sure. It’s very possible even a Trump victory has the GOP taking a different approach in 2024 towards more consistent conservative positions and of course maturity. Just not sure she would be able to fend off those attacks by linking herself to the President.
Edit: WTF forum be nuts. Almost replied to Treco saying something that he said in 2019 as it was showing as the most recent post. Which candidate will run to fix the update that broke t-nation!
It certainly is “a” card…but I don’t know if it’s the biggest.
I also think that even being Conservative will not be a negative…unless she tries (or needs?) to run some type of “Trump Lite” campaign (i.e. one full of vitriol and divisiveness…but not nearly as much so). This doesn’t appear to be her style.
As I read her site more and more; she seems to be focusing on her 1) international/foreign affair chops and 2) trying to bring reason to the things that are dividing us.
I’m not naive…she throws her jabs at Liberals and the Left (which I would expect)…but seems to focus more on what she would bring to the table.
Again…we’ll see. We still have to survive 4 more years of Trump.
I was busting your balls about the Trump hate 2 years ago… 
I think it was Mufasa actually but I’d work as well!
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Agreed.
Perhaps I was unclear earlier, but I meant a Pence/Haley ticket here in 2020 (ie. after enough sustained, unfavorable polling convinces the GOP that Trump is also hurting pivotal Senate races, across the board)
And how there’s gotta be a nonzero chance of this.
I see what you are saying, @chillain…
But if the GOP (as a whole) haven’t even seen enough of Trump and his antics to even speak out …the chances are in negative territory that they will all of a sudden dump him in favor of Pence. It just won’t happen. It’s “Trump or Bust”.
I also think that politically Pence is done (except as being Scott Farkus’s Toadie. Hopefully most of you will get the “Christmas Story” reference).
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Biden is ahead by double digits and still gaining and he has basically been MIA for the past few months. With no one to attack, Trump has been left to stand on his own policy decisions and handling of current events… and the american people are not pleased.
We will see if these preliminary poles actually match what happens in November, but right now trump is losing badly and i see only more bad news on the horizon for him. Biden just needs to stay out of the public eye and let trump continue to implode all on his own- don’t give trump an obvious boogieman/enemy to attack and trump is exposed.
Non zero chance sure but Trump would have to be the one to do this himself. The GOP will not talk Trump into this even if they think he will drag down the ticket.
Still a while to November and it’s not impossible to turn things around. Trump in all likelihood is going to lose the popular vote again and possibly significantly. But the battleground state polls tell a different story (or at least one for some type of limited optimism.
I’ll preface this by saying most of these are outliers: Trump has a one point lead in Wisconsin from the last Traflagar poll which I think last time proved very accurate, same poll showed just a one point lead for Biden in Michigan, 4 point lead for Trump in Pennsylvania last month CNBC poll, etc.
It was only a month ago that the betting odds were virtually tied and now it’s overwhelmingly Biden so we see how much things can change in just one month.
So I’m not convinced that at this point the polls definitely say we’re looking at a historic electoral crushing. I also think it’s a long ways to November and we know how weird this year alone has been and god knows what will happen/come out.
IF that is a actual Political tactic that is being used…it’s brilliant.
I’ve often posted on this site (to derision) that the only person who could beat Trump…is Trump.
Maybe the Biden campaign knows this?
We’ll see.
E-mails continue to confirm that at least for now…that Haley is emphasizing her International/Foreign affairs expertise.
Right. I also consider betting/odds to be a more reliable indicator than any particular poll/snapshot, and no question we’re fairly far out from November.
Similarly, I think the actions of money/hedge managers can also provide worthwhile clues. And powerful figures like Peter Thiel.
(I’ll also point out my foundational premise/assumption that Trump never really expected to be elected (and simply wanted the media exposure to kickstart Trump TV/media) and certainly doesn’t enjoy any of the actual responsibility of his position… only the adulation and power, and maybe even in that order)
I tend to think all this talk of Trump dropping out is pretty premature personally. Battleground polling matters far matter than anything else and it’s always limited at best at this time. And as I showed battleground polls aren’t showing Trump as in a position that would be impossible to fight out of.
Throw in all the unknowns like what the hell election turnouts look like in a pandemic and God knows where we are really at. Republicans at the national level haven’t turned on him yet fully or anything. I put a lot of stock into the data points we have as it’s truly the only thing we have to go off of, but to me it’s still early. I can only see Trump dropping out to save face nothing less. He doesn’t give a shit if he’s a drag on the party or anything. He won’t sacrifice himself for Republicans down ticket. He only drops out if he thinks a significant ass kicking is assured.
Trumps ego has always and will always be the driving factor in how he makes decisions.
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This.
As I look at Haley’s e-mails and her site…it seems like she is trying to walk what must be a very tenuous tightrope.
My guess is that she has a bunch of young, hot-shot, Conservative Staffers who probably want to Out-Trump Trump (it comes out in some of the links and post)…then you read the post that seem to originate from the skilled Politician and Diplomate that Haley is. (She seems to like to “flex” her International Chops).
Should she run in 2024 (which is not a given)…it will be interesting to see how she appeals to the Trumpublicans.
Kristi Noem has my vote in 2024
best lookin’ Gov since Lisa Ann